Wagner-Vermont Observations

Vermont’s non-conference slate has (so far) been exceedingly tumultuous. John Becker’s squad was picked by many to finish atop the America East Conference, but despite the squad’s overall seniority — per Ken Pomeroy, the team is the nation’s fifth most experienced — the Catamounts look confused.

Currently in the midst of a northeast road trip, the team is 1-4, and against Wagner last night, the squad took the entirety of the first half to shake off what appeared to be rust and finally execute their gameplan, taking the lead at one point before ultimately losing by seven.

What follows are five observations from the game.

What happens to Wagner’s offense when Kenneth Ortiz is sidelined? In spite of the senior’s defensive prowess — no other Seahawk has a higher steal rate than the guard — Ortiz also commits a very high numbers of fouls (nearly five per 40 minutes). Wagner’s offense is dynamic when Ortiz runs the point — his presence shifts Jay Harris off the ball and allows Marcus Burton to float around the perimeter, getting open when Ortiz’s drives draw defenders from the junior (who is converting 44% of his threes). When Ortiz goes to the bench, though, Wagner’s offense visibly becomes stilted: Harris hasn’t consistently shown he can create offense for himself, and often curls around down screens (or comes off cross screens) for a clear look (per Hoop-Math.com, 50% of his twos and 86% of his threes are assisted). Both Burton and Latif Rivers function more as jump shooters, and aren’t capable of breaking down a defender and then dumping off a pass. Ortiz is the ideal point guard for Bashir Mason — his assist rate hovers around 30% — and while his head is constantly swiveling for an open teammate, he also has the athleticism to make a play when the shot clock is under ten seconds. At one point versus Vermont, Ortiz split two defenders, spun to get the Catamount on his hip, and made a layup with his left hand.

Vermont’s best offense is their frontcourt. Sandro Carissimo and Candon Rusin use more than 23% of the squad’s attempts, but both are in an offensive quagmire, and the rest of the team simply cannot make a bucket from beyond the arc. The team’s three-point percentage was low last year (32%), but has sunk to 26% this season, and the team looks hesitant to unfurl from deep.

Luke Apfeld and Clancy Rugg are the only Catamounts with an offensive rating over 100, and keyed Vermont’s second half surge in Staten Island. Using either picks or dribble drives, Carissimo was able to find Apfeld for a short corner jumper (he hit at least two) and Rugg illuminated what could be a crucial hole in Wagner’s defense, grabbing six offensive rebounds and either connecting on putbacks or drawing fouls. More than one half of Vermont’s points came from within the paint.

Wagner’s defensive identity. Wagner’s uniqueness in 2013 was fueled by how often they forced teams into committing a turnover. During the first half, Wagner continued to harass and generally make Vermont look unsure on offense. However, Vermont’s offense soon began to flow: the squad made 61% of their twos in the second half, grabbed countless offensive boards (sometimes three in one possession), and appeared more comfortable running their sets. The Seahawks struggled to force Vermont’s primary ballhandlers to give up the ball, and as a result, couldn’t get out as often in transition (Wagner scored only four fast-break points, as compared to ten in the first 20 minutes) and allowed Vermont some breathing room. While Wagner again looks like the cream of the NEC, are they defensively vulnerable? Not only is the squad causing a turnover on just 14% of their defensive possessions, they aren’t attacking the glass, allowing teams to generate additional chances. Just as concerning is their foul rate, which woefully ranks last in DI. Wagner’s bigs are particularly hack-friendly, and the propensity to pick up pointless fouls could portend defensive disaster for a team whose defensive efficiency rate ranked second in the NEC last season.

Vermont needs to get healthy soon.
Becker traveled with ten Catamounts, but only nine saw minutes, yielding a very thin bench (which only scored 11 points) and the squad looked visibly gassed at times. Ethan O’Day, a 6’9″ forward who made 52% of his twos during his freshman season, is out up to six weeks with a hand injury, and both Ryan Pierson and Brendan Kilpatrick will be out for some time. While it would appear, barring any setbacks, that the Catamounts could have a full squad in time for conference play, the schedule will not yield any breaks before AE play. After the game, Becker told John Templon that he purposely scheduled a tough out of conference slate — “I scheduled tough with the thought that we’d have all of our guys and still it was going to be difficult” — and the upcoming games are daunting for both the team’s record and confidence: tilts against Duke, Quinnipiac, San Francisco, and Harvard.

Is Wagner pushing the pace? The Seahawks have joined the 70-plus possession ranks, using 71 or so possessions per game through the first five games. Mason’s squad was in transition on both makes and misses, forcing Vermont on their heels and utilizing the Seahawks’ athleticism to create easy scoring opportunities (14 points). However, the added trips could be attributed to the increase in possessions felt across the nation (the average, per Pomeroy, is 69.5, a jump from 65.9 in 2013). As teams continue to feel out the new foul rules, and gain ease with which they run their offensive sets, it will be interesting to see if Wagner’s pace slackens or whether Mason intends for it to be sustainable.

If it is the latter, Wagner’s speed could be useful to generate easy two-point field goals. The team doesn’t have a frontcourt player who can demand the ball and then score on the block — both Mario Moody and Naofall Folahan are best when set up along the backline or trailing the break. It is clear that the bulk of the team’s offense is tied to their perimeter shooting; when those attempts aren’t falling, Wagner’s offense stalls, so the new pace could be a reflection of Mason’s desire to manufacture easy twos.

Wagner Looks Strong in First Mid-Major Test

After losing to St. John’s and Penn State, two teams residing in a “power” conference, and defeating Division II participant Chestnut Hill, Wagner traveled to Baltimore on Monday evening for their first mid-major test. Coppin State, a MEAC team coming off an impressive upset over Oregon State, would serve as a terrific early season litmus test for the Seahawks. Continue reading “Wagner Looks Strong in First Mid-Major Test”

NEC Thursday: The Valentine’s Day Recap!

With my wife out of town, I was able to keep my eye on the NEC basketball scene for what turned out to be a special Valentine’s Day recap! Enjoy…

Mount St. Mary’s 84, Bryant 70
Sam Prescott had the performance of his life with 44 points on 16 of 24 shooting to help lead the Mount to an impressive drubbing of league leader Bryant. After the Bulldogs jumped out to an early lead thanks to Dyami Starks’ three points, two assists, and one rebound in four minutes, Bryant struggled offensively when Starks was saddled with two quick fouls. After that, a Prescott onslaught from behind the three-point line guided the Mount to a double-digit lead at the half. In all, Prescott tied a Mount record for the most threes scored in a game (10-14), while also breaking the school’s D-I record for most points in a game. Perhaps quietly, Shivaughn Wiggins and Julien Norfleet did a wonderful job fasciliating on offense. The duo dished out 16 assists versus only one turnover. Bryant shot the ball well, but couldn’t overcome 15 turnovers and a porous effort defensively on the perimeter that allowed the Mount to sink 50.9% of their shots. Alex Francis scored a team high 25 points to go along with ten rebounds, but it simply wasn’t enough to overcome Prescott’s special night.

St. Francis (PA) 64, Sacred Heart 60
In the upset of the night, St. Francis (PA) notched their third win of the season by knocking off a significantly banged up Sacred Heart team on the road. Phil Gaetano was out with the flu leaving the Pioneers devoid of a true point guard on the roster and limiting Dave Bike to seven healthy scholarship players and walk-on Louis Cramer. Shane Gibson did his part registering 26 points, eight rebounds, four assists, and five steals, but it wasn’t enough as no other Pioneer logged a game efficiency rating higher than a six (for non-stat heads, a six isn’t very good). Four players scored in double digits for Rob Krimmel’s club, led by double-double machine Earl Brown with 13 points and 11 boards. St. Francis lost the edge on the boards, but shot well enough from the perimeter (7-16 behind the arc) and at the charity stripe (19-26) to pull through. The win moves St. Francis (PA) out of the cellar with a 3-10 record, while Sacred Heart nows find themselves only up 1.5 games on the 9th place team in the conference. With no more “cupcakes” on the schedule, it’s now or never for the Pioneers coming up.

LIU Brooklyn 82, Monmouth 66
A nearly down-and-out Monmouth team hung tough and even led the back-to-back defending champs with 11 minutes left in the second half, 52-51. But then a 20-5 LIU run put the game out of reach and made certain the Hawks would lose for the fifth time in six games. The offensive numbers won’t make Jack Perri all too happy (1.02 PPP, 14 assists versus 24 turnovers), yet the defense stepped up to force 17 turnovers and a mediocre 40% shooting mark for Monmouth. In addition, the Blackbirds won the rebounding battle 35-27 and hit 14 more freebies from the line. Jamal Olasewere led the team with 23 points, but C.J. Garner was equally as excellent with 20 points, six rebounds, four assists, and four steals. Ed Waite led Monmouth with 24 points, but he needed 19 shots to get there. After him though, only two Hawk players – Jesse Steele and Stephen Spinella – scored more than five points.

Wagner 101, Central Connecticut 82
If Wagner scores the basketball like that the rest of the season, then I’m pretty confident they’ll join Robert Morris, Bryant, and LIU Brooklyn in the upper third of the league at season’s end. Wagner shattered their season high in points per possession with 1.32 PPP, while draining over 61% of their shots in a blowout home win over the suddenly defensively challenged Blue Devils. Seven Seahawks scored at least eight points with Marcus Burton claiming 23 points on only nine shots. The game moved at a feverish pace with 155 total possessions, but it was Wagner who benefitted the most from the tempo. Central Connecticut, led by Kyle Vinales’ 42 points on 24 shots, cut Wagner’s lead to seven points early in the second half, but a 15-0 run by the Seahawks essentially turned the game into a laugher. Odd enough, CCSU falls to 4-8 on the season when they average more than 73 possessions in a game. Is it safe to say the lack of depth hurts CCSU in these games that turn into track meets? Whatever the reason, Howie Dickenman shouldn’t be happy that Wagner outscored his club in the paint, 44-24, while also allowing the Seahawks to drill nine of their 15 long-range jumpers. It was a lousy defensive effort whichever way you slice it.

St. Francis Brooklyn 85, Fairleigh Dickinson 61
When it rains it pours, and right now it’s pouring losses for FDU. The Knights dropped their ninth straight to a struggling St. Francis team, as they were unable to overcome 21 point efforts from both Akeem Johnson and Travis Nichols. The Terriers were efficient on offense, and while that may be from FDU being in the bottom 10% of the nation defensively, Glenn Braica certainly has to be pleased with 16 assists versus a mere five turnovers, a 25-28 shooting performance from the free-throw line, and the fact that his team surged despite a zero point overcome from Jalen Cannon. Kinu Rochford had another monster game for FDU (what else is new) with 20 points and 16 rebounds, but it wasn’t nearly enough to prevent FDU’s slide into the NEC basement.

Quinnipiac 63, Robert Morris 61
In perhaps their last meeting before Quinnipiac departs for the MAAC, the Bobcats outlasted the banged-up Colonials in a ridiculously tight game throughout. Velton Jones supposedly did his best Willis Reed impersonation (OK, maybe not) by suiting up right before tipoff, yet he struggled with only six points on 13 shots. Evan Conti led Quinnipiac with 18 points, six rebounds, and two assists and has been the unsung hero in this recent run for Tom Moore. Conti has scored in double figures in four straight, while also averaging 5.5 rebounds per game. The big difference in the game was free throws, as Robert Morris uncharacteristically went to the charity stripe just 13 times (and missed eight of them). On the other hand, Quinnipiac had 17 points from the line and also doubled the Colonials output on the boards (44-22). The Bobcats are officially the hottest team in the NEC, winning five of their last six contests to move into a tie for fifth place. A home playoff game is now absolutely within reach.

NEC Standings
1) Bryant, 9-3
2) Robert Morris, 9-4
3) LIU Brooklyn, 9-4
4) Wagner, 8-5
5) Sacred Heart, 7-5
6) Quinnipiac, 7-5
7) Central Connecticut, 6-6
8) St. Francis Brooklyn, 6-7
9) Mount St. Mary’s, 6-7
10) Monmouth, 4-9
11) St. Francis (PA), 3-10
12) Fairleigh Dickinson, 2-11
*Robert Morris holds tiebreaker on LIU based on head-to-head record (1-0)
*Sacred Heart holds tiebreaker on Quinnipiac based on head-to-head record (1-0)
*St. Francis Brooklyn holds tiebreaker on Mount St. Mary’s based on head-to-head record (1-0)

Robert Morris, Wagner’s Jonathan Williams shine on NEC Saturday

Thanks to finals week, it has been a fairly light week of Northeast Conference basketball. With four games on the docket today, it was the first time in seven days that more than two NEC teams played on the same day. Therefore, I felt it was appropriate to briefly breakdown each game on the second to last Saturday before Christmas.

Wagner 77, Coppin State 65
It took a career game from senior Jonathan Williams (33 points, 17 rebounds, 3 steals) just to push this non-conference battle into overtime. Coppin State, who according to KenPom came into the matchup as a 90% underdog, used Wagner’s aggressive defense to their advantage by getting to the charity stripe an astonishing 22 more times than Wagner in regulation. Once Williams was able to will his team into overtime, however, Wagner’s defense and Marcus Burton took over. Burton quickly hit two three-pointers in the extra frame, and left little drama late (other than the lights going out) at the Spiro Center. All together, Williams and Burton (17 points) combined to score nearly 65% of the Seahawks’ total points. A big-time upset was averted, and as I always like to say, a win is a win. Hopefully for Wagner’s sake, Latif Rivers will soon return from a knee injury to add a much-needed dimension to the offense. Defensively, though, the team is clicking quite nicely. Mario Moody was once again impressive off the ball, registering seven rebounds, three steals, and three blocks in only 22 minutes.

St. John’s 77, St. Francis 60
The problems continued for Glenn Braica’s group, as the Terriers have fallen to 2-7 on the young season. Tabbed fifth in the NEC Coach’s Preseason Poll, St. Francis Brooklyn has really struggled in the backcourt and today was no exception, especially when faced with the superior athleticism of St. John’s. John shared his thoughts on the game here.

Loyola (MD) 79, Mount St. Mary’s 57
The Catholic in-state battle was over right after it started, as Jamion Christian witnessed the ugliest loss of his young career tonight in Baltimore. Loyola jumped out to a 33-11 lead, and never looked back, winning comfortably at home. The first half stats painted a brutally dim picture for the Mountaineers: seven field goals, eight turnovers, 15 personal fouls, and an awful shooting percentage of 24%. Even worse, the MAYHEM was anything but that, as the Mount secured their first steal of the game 35 minutes in. Kristijan Krajina was the lone bright spot for the Mount, scoring 14 points while corralling seven boards in only 15 minutes. Everyone else struggled mightily, including a player I recently praised, Rashad Whack. Even though a beat down like this never happens at a good time, I’m willing to bet Christian secretly preferred it happened now rather than during the conference season. Loyola continued its excellent non-conference run, pushing their record to 9-3. Erik Etherly, who was sidelined with a shoulder injury for five games, came back to contribute 16 points. Senior Robert Olsen tormented the Mount’s defense inside and out, with a game high 22 points.

Robert Morris 91, Duquesne 69
I saved the best for last. The Andy Toole and Jim Ferry reunion ended badly for the first year head coach of the Dukes, as Robert Morris cruised in the second half to win their fourth straight against Duquesne going away. After a close battle through one half, the Colonials were able to control the pace (something Toole couldn’t do against Ferry in last year’s NEC title game) and go on a decisive run. Velton Jones had one of his best games of the season with 22 points and six assists. Robert Morris’ defense forced 25 turnovers and made 51% of their shots, including 13 of 28 from behind the arc. The victory is the Colonials fourth straight and seventh overall and has them rolling into late December. Starting with their upset victory over Ohio, Toole’s squad has easily looked like the best team in the NEC. For what it’s worth, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi agrees, having pegged Robert Morris as a future 14 seed. That may be a tad bullish, but a road win over Arkansas later this month would certainly cement that future seeding.

Ryan Peters covers Northeast Conference men’s basketball for Big Apple Buckets and Pioneer Pride. You can follow Ryan on Twitter @pioneer_pride

NEC Breakout Candidates – Part 2

For the second part of my NEC breakouts segment, I’m introducing the lesser known players to you. These players needed a season or two to fully accommodate themselves to the rigors of Division I basketball. Now seasoned, I’m expecting these young men to emerge into reliable, and at times very good contributors to their respective teams. Given the talent here, it certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see any of these players land on an All-NEC team before their careers are over.

Continue reading “NEC Breakout Candidates – Part 2”

Wagner reloads with three talented newcomers

Wagner Seahawks — 25-6 (15-3 NEC) lost to Robert Morris in NEC semifinals

Players Lost:
Tyler Murray (30.7 MPG, 12.0 PPG, 2.1 APG, 79.5% FT%, 49.0% 3PT%)
Chris Martin (20.9 MPG, 7.1 PPG, 82.3% FT%, 31.0% 3PT%)
Ryan Schrotenboer (12 GP, 2.6 MPG, 0.3 PPG, 0.4 RPG)

Incoming Players:
Jay Harris, 6’2″ PG — Aurora, IL
Dwaun Anderson, 6’3″ G — Suttons Bay, MI
Eric Fanning, 6’4″ G/F — Trenton, NJ

Wagner had it’s most successful season ever last season and first 20-win season since 2007-08, but it ended in disappointing fashion when the Seahawks failed to get invited to the NIT. Head coach Dan Hurley is off to Rhode Island, but Bashir Mason takes over and brings back almost the entire core of last season’s team.

“That was something that was appealing about this job,” Mason said. “I had the luxury of knowing that we return 10 out of our 13 scholarship players. And even after the first year we’ll only lose two players. That gives me good confidence in knowing that I don’t have to go out and rush and find impact players. We need to find the right players. Guys that will fit well with our system.”

While transfer Jay Harris isn’t going to make an impact for another season, the former Valparaiso point guard has found a home with the Seahawks. He needs to work on his strength, but during summer workouts Mason has been impressed by Harris’ shooting ability. In 2013-14 Harris should slide right into what will be a very crowded guard rotation.

Wagner though needs shooters now to help replace the dynamic shooting of the departed Tyler Murray, who shot an insane 49.0% from beyond the arc last season. Two newcomers, Dwaun Anderson and Eric Fanning, will get the chance to fill that void. Anderson has been practicing with the team since January, so he knows the lay of the land.

“He’s used to our style of play. He’s used to the tempo,” Mason said about the former Michigan Mr. Basketball. “He knows the drills and he knows the physicality of the college game. It’ll be smooth for him to go from being a practice player to playing in the games.”

The one true newcomer on the roster is Fanning, who is a “gifted scorer” according to Mason. Fanning scored 1,000 points at two schools, including 1,163 points in just two seasons at Perkiomen in Pennsylvania. He was also named the MVP of the 2012 Mary Kline Classic.

The additions are going to have to fight for playing time. They’ll be competing not only with each other, but all the talented returnees. That’s why even though the Seahawks have one scholarship remaining it’s unlikely the spot will be filled.

It’s going to get even harder to crack the rotation if players continue to improve over the summer. Mason is taking advantage of the NCAA’s new rules allowing teams to work together during the summer and has players practicing on Monday and Tuesday. One of the players that has impressed since returning to campus is point guard Marcus Burton.

“He came back with about eight pounds of muscle added to his body,” Mason said. “I think he’s looking to have a breakout sophomore season.”

If Burton does improve on his solid freshman season, during which he averaged 3.5 points, 1.3 rebounds and 0.6 steals per game in just 12.6 minutes, it should make Wagner even more difficult to play against.

All of it adds up to once making Wagner one of the top contenders in a loaded NEC and a force in the conference for seasons to come.

Advanced stats from Saturday’s NEC action

New York’s three NEC teams – Long Island Brooklyn, Wagner and St. Francis (NY) all scored wins in NEC play on Saturday. The Blackbirds are now tied with Central Connecticut State in first place at 4-0 and the Seahawks and Terriers are right behind at 3-1. All of the wins on Saturday were important, but there were some interesting statistical oddities in each of the games.

Continue reading “Advanced stats from Saturday’s NEC action”