Lots of talent has left the NEC, either via graduation or transfer. The result is a conference in flux that will be nearly impossible to predict. At the very least, most pundits would separate the NEC teams into the following tiers for the 2013-14 season:

The Contenders (in no particular order):
Wagner, Bryant, Mount St. Mary’s, Robert Morris, Central Connecticut, LIU Brooklyn

A Fighting Chance To Contend If Things Break Right:
St. Francis Brooklyn, Sacred Heart, St. Francis (PA)

Rebuilding Once Again:
Fairleigh Dickinson

Whether or not you believe LIU Brooklyn should be bumped down a notch due to the condition of Julian Boyd’s knee, the contender tier is absolutely enormous! According to most, at least half of the conference possesses a legitimate shot to earn an NCAA bid. That’s where returning possession minutes (RPMs) come into play. The formula (a player’s percentage of minutes played multiplied by the number of possession he used up during the 2012-13 season) is quite simple, yet it’s a solid indicator in predicting which teams have the continuity necessary to thrive this upcoming season.

Let’s begin by ranking all ten clubs in RPMs:

1. Central Connecticut 78.4%
2. St. Francis (PA) 73.1%
3. Bryant 72.3%
4. Wagner 71.3%
5. St. Francis Brooklyn 64.3%
6. Mount St. Mary’s 61.9%
7. Robert Morris 55.3%
8. Sacred Heart 53.2%
9. LIU Brooklyn 40.6%
10. Fairleigh Dickinson 33.0%

Not surprisingly, CCSU heads the list illustrating why I consider them to be a dark-horse, even after an uninspiring seventh place finish the season prior. All of the Blue Devils elite level talent has returned in Kyle Vinales, Matthew Hunter, and Malcolm McMillan, so if you believe in continuity, then a top three finish in the conference makes sense. Of course, the incoming JUCO transfers (Faronte Drakeford and Juwan Newman) and freshmen (Khalen Cumberlander and Matt Mobley) must solidify the Blue Devils’ once nonexistent depth for this to occur. With the majority of the teams around them hemorrhaging players this offseason though, the case for CCSU has been getting stronger.

One team that brings back a lot is Wagner. They lose Jonathan Williams and his stellar 109.3 offensive rating, yet Bashir Mason has plenty of firepower returning. And the 71.3% RPMs doesn’t include Valpo transfer Jay Harris, who may very well be one of the best shooters in the NEC. Just another reason why the athletic and deep Seahawks will be our NEC favorite before the first jump ball on November 9th.

The 2013-14 season presents Andy Toole with the biggest challenge of his young coaching career. Nearly half of Robert Morris’ RPMs have evaporated away and now the departure of big man Lijah Thompson (who doesn’t factor in last year’s RPMs due to injury) exacerbates the problem. With six talented newcomers now in Moon Township, Toole may very well figure out the puzzle, but he’ll likely need the non-conference portion of the schedule to play mad scientist. The results may not be pretty early on.

Another head coach with his hands full is Jack Perri, but you already knew that. Without the services of Julian Boyd – and his expected 30% possession rate – for the foreseeable future, it’s Jason Brickman, E.J. Reed, and a complete mystery after that. There will be a lot of possessions available for newcomers in the frontcourt and the seldom used Gerrell Martin (3.9% RPMs) and Troy Joseph (3.4% RPMs) on the perimeter. Someone likely will step up (we really like Martin’s chances), but the lack of data makes this arrangement impossible to predict. You’re surely taking a leap of faith if you consider LIU Brooklyn to be one of the NEC favorites.

The most curious case is Bryant. They’re top three in returning RPMs, but lost their do-all floor general, Frankie Dobbs. If O’Shea can find a competent point guard replacement by January, Bryant has to be considered as a strong contender. After all, 67.9% of Bryant’s 72.3% RPMs are tied up in four players – Dyami Starks, Alex Francis, Corey Maynard and Joe O’Shea – and the Bulldogs had the most efficient offensive attack (117.0 points per 100 possessions) in the NEC. If someone can just get those four the damn ball (I’m looking at you, Justin Brickman and Declan Soukup) and keep the turnovers somewhat down, then the Bulldogs have the upside to play on ESPN2 in mid-March.

Lastly, it’s going to be a rough season ahead for Fairleigh Dickinson. The ship is heading in the right direction under Greg Herenda, but with so little experience coming back – Sidney Sanders leads the team at 8.9% RPMs – it’s tough to envision FDU bettering their win total of a season ago at seven victories.

For your reference, here are the top eight returning players in RPMs:

1. Kyle Vinales, CCSU 28.3%
2. Alex Francis, Bryant 23.9%
3. Matthew Hunter, CCSU 23.7%
4. Kenneth Ortiz, Wagner, 20.7%
5. Dyami Starks, Bryant 20.5%
6. Louis Montes, Sacred Heart 18.8%
7. Rashad Whack, Mount St. Mary’s 17.6%
8. Jalen Cannon, St. Francis Brooklyn 17.1%

With the exception of possibly Ortiz, who now has more playmakers on the perimeter, I’d expect everyone else in the top 5 will finish that way at season’s end. Don’t be surprised if Montes and Whack emerge as all-conference selections. With their respective teams employing a balanced attack, however, it’s conceivable that neither player finishes the season as the team’s RPM leader. Look for Cannon’s numbers to jump into 20% territory as he becomes the focus of Glenn Braica’s offense. Consider him a sleeper for NEC Player of the Year if St. Francis can somehow ascend to the upper third of the conference standings.

You can follow Ryan on Twitter @pioneer_pride