All-Conference Teams According to Value Add

Now that John Pudner has given us a look at why Low-Major Value Add can be a useful way of comparing players at that level I wanted to take a look at the all-conference teams according to the metric thus far this season. There aren’t that many surprises, but using data through last Thursday’s games, here’s what the teams would look like. The data should be up soon on the Low-Major page of Value Add shortly.

Continue reading “All-Conference Teams According to Value Add”

Robert Morris, Wagner’s Jonathan Williams shine on NEC Saturday

Thanks to finals week, it has been a fairly light week of Northeast Conference basketball. With four games on the docket today, it was the first time in seven days that more than two NEC teams played on the same day. Therefore, I felt it was appropriate to briefly breakdown each game on the second to last Saturday before Christmas.

Wagner 77, Coppin State 65
It took a career game from senior Jonathan Williams (33 points, 17 rebounds, 3 steals) just to push this non-conference battle into overtime. Coppin State, who according to KenPom came into the matchup as a 90% underdog, used Wagner’s aggressive defense to their advantage by getting to the charity stripe an astonishing 22 more times than Wagner in regulation. Once Williams was able to will his team into overtime, however, Wagner’s defense and Marcus Burton took over. Burton quickly hit two three-pointers in the extra frame, and left little drama late (other than the lights going out) at the Spiro Center. All together, Williams and Burton (17 points) combined to score nearly 65% of the Seahawks’ total points. A big-time upset was averted, and as I always like to say, a win is a win. Hopefully for Wagner’s sake, Latif Rivers will soon return from a knee injury to add a much-needed dimension to the offense. Defensively, though, the team is clicking quite nicely. Mario Moody was once again impressive off the ball, registering seven rebounds, three steals, and three blocks in only 22 minutes.

St. John’s 77, St. Francis 60
The problems continued for Glenn Braica’s group, as the Terriers have fallen to 2-7 on the young season. Tabbed fifth in the NEC Coach’s Preseason Poll, St. Francis Brooklyn has really struggled in the backcourt and today was no exception, especially when faced with the superior athleticism of St. John’s. John shared his thoughts on the game here.

Loyola (MD) 79, Mount St. Mary’s 57
The Catholic in-state battle was over right after it started, as Jamion Christian witnessed the ugliest loss of his young career tonight in Baltimore. Loyola jumped out to a 33-11 lead, and never looked back, winning comfortably at home. The first half stats painted a brutally dim picture for the Mountaineers: seven field goals, eight turnovers, 15 personal fouls, and an awful shooting percentage of 24%. Even worse, the MAYHEM was anything but that, as the Mount secured their first steal of the game 35 minutes in. Kristijan Krajina was the lone bright spot for the Mount, scoring 14 points while corralling seven boards in only 15 minutes. Everyone else struggled mightily, including a player I recently praised, Rashad Whack. Even though a beat down like this never happens at a good time, I’m willing to bet Christian secretly preferred it happened now rather than during the conference season. Loyola continued its excellent non-conference run, pushing their record to 9-3. Erik Etherly, who was sidelined with a shoulder injury for five games, came back to contribute 16 points. Senior Robert Olsen tormented the Mount’s defense inside and out, with a game high 22 points.

Robert Morris 91, Duquesne 69
I saved the best for last. The Andy Toole and Jim Ferry reunion ended badly for the first year head coach of the Dukes, as Robert Morris cruised in the second half to win their fourth straight against Duquesne going away. After a close battle through one half, the Colonials were able to control the pace (something Toole couldn’t do against Ferry in last year’s NEC title game) and go on a decisive run. Velton Jones had one of his best games of the season with 22 points and six assists. Robert Morris’ defense forced 25 turnovers and made 51% of their shots, including 13 of 28 from behind the arc. The victory is the Colonials fourth straight and seventh overall and has them rolling into late December. Starting with their upset victory over Ohio, Toole’s squad has easily looked like the best team in the NEC. For what it’s worth, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi agrees, having pegged Robert Morris as a future 14 seed. That may be a tad bullish, but a road win over Arkansas later this month would certainly cement that future seeding.

Ryan Peters covers Northeast Conference men’s basketball for Big Apple Buckets and Pioneer Pride. You can follow Ryan on Twitter @pioneer_pride

Surprise individual performances of the young season

With most teams having played at least one quarter of their schedule (crazy, huh?), I felt this was a perfect time to give you ten players that have really surprised and/or impressed me this season. In the first part, John and I list our top five surprises of the NEC thus far, who we feel truly have the potential to end up on an all-conference team in March. For part two, I decided to give you the five best non-conference players I’ve seen live so far in the 13 games I’ve attended. Enjoy!

Rashad Whack, Mount St. Mary’s – Everybody knew about Whack’s ability to knock down the long-range jumper, but not everyone could have envisioned Whack being the key ingredient in Jamion Christian’s MAYHEM attack. Through seven games, the George Mason transfer not only leads the team in three-pointers made and points per game, but he also is tops in rebounds and steals (6.4% steal rate, best in the NEC) as well. His off-the-ball skills and play have been pleasant surprises and for that credit must be given to the coach Christian replaced, Robert Burke. Christian inherited quite a player in Whack, who absolutely has the potential to crack a NEC all-conference team.

Stephon Mosley, St. Francis (PA) – Go ahead, it’s OK. You can admit this is the first time you’ve ever heard of Stephon Mosley. Admittedly, I knew little about the freshman, as he was a late signee for Rob Krimmel’s team. But shockingly in the early going, Mosley is leading all NEC freshmen in efficiency rating, rebounds and minutes per game. The 6’6″ power forward, along with notable recruit Ronnie Drinnon, have spearheaded the youth movement in Loretto, as Krimmel has clearly moved forward with his young players, rather than utilizing veterans like Anthony Ervin, Tony Peters, and Storm Stanley. If Mosley continues his 10 points and 4.5 rebounds per game production, he’ll easily crack the NEC All-Rookie Team at season’s end.

Matthew Hunter, Central Connecticut – The immediate impact this accomplished junior college transfer could provide was well-known, thanks to Howie Dickenman’s constant praise in the preseason. We knew Hunter would be a stat-filler, but we didn’t realize that he’d be in the top four of the conference in points, rebounds, and steals per game. Hunter showcased his skills in Indiana recently, when he famously dropped 40 points in a losing effort at Assembly Hall. It was a performance that surely opened coach’s eyes, and shows that merely shutting down Kyle Vinales will not restrict the Blue Devils efficient offense. There’s officially a bona fide one-two punch in New Britain, so sit back and enjoy the ride for the next two seasons. Vinales and Hunter will put up some mind-blowing numbers together.

Kevin Douglas, St. Francis Brooklyn – Last season Douglas was on the bench behind Stefan Perunicic for SFC. Now that he’s in the rotation on a consistent basis, Douglas is tearing it up. He’s already attempted more threes this season than he did during his entire freshman campaign and he’s making a ridiculous 41% of them. That’s not sustainable, but the sophomore’s low turnover rate and ability to attack the rim look like they weren’t flukes last season. The two biggest criticisms of Douglas thus far this season is that he could be shooting even more and that his defense is a work in progress. Still, he’s provided an excellent scoring threat on the wing for the Terriers.

Dyami Starks, Bryant – In the preseason, Bryant head coach Tim O’Shea was so high on Starks, he called him one of the best shooters he has ever coached. So far, Starks hasn’t disappointed, hitting 27 three-pointers (37% three-point percentage) and dropping double-digit points in seven of nine games. Starks ability to make the long-range jumper has added a much-needed dimension to the Bulldogs’ offense, so much so that Bryant can no longer be considered a pushover. We’re incredibly bullish on Starks to continue his impressive production, mainly because O’Shea has been blown away with Columbia transfer’s work ethic. Enjoy Bulldog fans, since you have the next three years to witness the soon to be best shooter in Bryant’s young history.

And now for some players that really impressed me in the live games I’ve seen so far this season…

C.J. McCollum, Lehigh – Well, duh?! It’s not terribly imaginative for me to put a potential likely All-American here, but his insertion onto my list is due to the “wow” factor. When I saw Lehigh smoke Sacred Heart on the Sunday after Thanksgiving, it wasn’t that McCollum scored 26 super efficient points. It was the way he scored, which was seemed so easy, so effortless. He scored in the post, in the lane, behind the arc, and yet he hardly broke a sweat doing it. He was by far and away the best player on that court and this is coming from an unapologetic supporter of Shane Gibson. As Patriot League expert Kevin Doyle said at the game, a player of McCollum’s caliber belongs in the Big East, not in the outdated Pitt Center whipping up on the hapless Pioneers. As far as mid-major players are concerned, he is the most transcendent talent I have ever witnessed.

Tilman Dunbar, Navy – You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out why Navy has already doubled their win total from a season ago. It’s the lightning quick, surprisingly mature freshman Tilman Dunbar who has helped lead the Midshipmen out of a couple of abysmal seasons into a team that could legitimately finish the upper half of the Patriot League. Dunbar possesses a terrific handle, an explosive first step, and adept court vision, yet it’s his poise that may be his most impressive talent. The diminutive point guard carries himself like an upperclassman. Dunbar’s undeniable talent will be fun to watch for Midshipmen fans the next four seasons, but in the meantime, he’ll continue to only improve under the tutelage of head coach Ed DeChellis. You can basically hand him the Patriot League Rookie of the Year trophy right now.

Ryan Cook, UMBC – I didn’t see UMBC play last season (which probably was a good thing), but a number of articles raved about the play of forward Chase Plummer. So you could imagine my surprise when I saw it was guard Ryan Cook, and not Plummer, that made the Retrievers tick. Not to pick on Plummer, but Cook – a former walk-on – has easily been the most efficient player for Aki Thomas’ UMBC club in the early going. The athletic Cook is a do all guard who can score a variety of ways. In addition to leading the America East in scoring, the 6’2 senior is eighth in the conference in rebounds per game. Forecasting ahead, expect Cook to continue to have an expanded role in the Retrievers’ offense. It’s probably the most optimal way UMBC can claw back to respectability in the America East this season.

Stephen Lumpkins, American – You won’t find American upperclassman Steve Lumpkins on any stat sheets last season, because he was playing minor league baseball. After the failed stint, Lumpkins came back to utilize his final season of eligibility, and it’s a good thing for the Eagles he did. Without his fantastic interior production, American would really struggle this season. It’s been a disappointing start to the season already in Washington D.C., yet Lumpkins at least gives the Eagles a little hope heading into conference play. His efficient, fluid play around the rim demands double teams and should leave American’s bevy of long-range shooters open on the outside. So far, Lumpkins is holding up his end of the bargain, as he’s averaging 15.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game. That’s not too shabby for someone who completely missed the previous season.

Billy Baron, Canisius – When Canisius hired the former long time URI coach Jim Baron this offseason, they were essentially adding a top-notch transfer as well, in the form of Baron’s son, Billy. As a result, the Golden Griffens have exceeded expectations in the early going and have finally caught MAAC fans attention with their quick 2-0 start in the conference. Baron – the young one – is a huge reason for Canisius’ success, having posted averages of 17.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. He’s fresh off a MAAC Player of the Week award, after torching conference foe Marist with a fantastic effort. Throw in backcourt mate Harold Washington, and you have a dynamic scoring duo that can seemingly make the right decision time and time again for a contending club in Canisius.

Ryan Peters covers Northeast Conference men’s basketball for Big Apple Buckets and Pioneer Pride. You can follow Ryan on Twitter @pioneer_pride

NEC Week 5 Recap: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

After our most glowing NEC recap last Monday, this version of The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly isn’t all peaches and cream. Overall though, the conference had another solid week with the two biggest contenders in LIU Brooklyn and Robert Morris continuing their winning streak and a little known junior college transfer entering the spotlight.

The Good

  • A Performance to Tell the Grandkids About – Later this week when I post my biggest individual surprises of the young season, I thought I would be all slick when I highlighted the play of Central Connecticut junior college transfer Matthew Hunter. With all of the attention going to teammate Kyle Vinales, and rightfully so, Hunter’s performance in the young season has been quietly productive. That is until Hunter had a historic performance on the road versus Big Ten power Indiana. Hunter’s 40 points (on only 25 shots) tied a record for the most points scored by an opponent in Assembly Hall. In the early going, Hunter has been the fourth most efficient player in the NEC, so if conference opponents weren’t paying attention to the energetic, highly skilled slasher, they sure are now. Vinales and Hunter are turning into a phenomenal one-two punch that will terrorize NEC opponents this winter.
  • More Like a 15 Seed – After an uneven start to the season, the Robert Morris Colonials are slowing morphing back into the Colonials of old, playing inspired defense and aggressively driving to the rim on offense. In their three game winning streak, Andy Toole’s group has outscored their opponents by an average of 11 points at the charity stripe, while forcing 47 turnovers. Lucky Jones has quietly been the most efficient player for Robert Morris, averaging 10.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. Karvel Anderson has provided instant offense off the bench, as he’s shooting a fantastic 16 of 23 from behind the arc during the winning streak. Despite the recent success, Toole is still searching for a consistent effort for all 40 minutes, yet the upside of this Colonial group is quite intriguing.

The Bad

  • What Home Court Advantage? – This past Saturday marks another confounding home loss by the Quinnipiac Bobcats, who now have lost three times to non-conference opponents in the friendly confines of TD Bank Sports Center. The latest defeat to America East contender Vermont was the latest example of Quinnipiac’s inefficiencies on the offensive side of the ball. Tom Moore had hoped his team would execute better in the half court and push the ball a little more in transition, but so far neither plan has actually come to fruition yet. Poor free throw shooting continues to plague the Bobcats, with Quinnipiac missing nearly half of their 20 attempts versus Vermont. It’s an issue that may have little chance to resolve itself, so Moore will have to find creative ways to overcome this glaring deficiency.
  • Attacking the Rim – It has been a difficult start to the season for Glenn Braica, who finds his on the wrong end of these non-conference battles in year number three. The Terriers winless week now has them with a surprising record of 2-5. A quick glance at the statistics doesn’t illustrate any outragous trends, with the exception of one facet. St. Francis Brooklyn is doing a lousy job of getting to the charity stripe (bottom 20 nationally in free throw attempts per field goal attempts) and making them once at the line (59.6%). All other things equal, if you’re consisently getting outscored at the line most nights, it will usually be an uphill battle to make up the difference in points elsewhere. The Terriers need to be more aggressive getting into the lane.

The Ugly

  • Not Fit for a King – One of the things that makes King Rice good for Monmouth and the NEC is his competitive drive, although it was that same fire that got Rice in trouble with his athletic director. After a tough upset loss to Navy at home, Rice went off on the officials after he was ejected from the game for acquiring two technical fouls. The post-game tirade earned Rice a one game suspension and left him in the locker room for the Hawks’ showdown with Syracuse. Obviously, Rice’s presence wouldn’t have determined the outcome of the game, but Rice needs to exercise caution before ripping NCAA officials after a difficult loss. I’m sure the second year head coach has learned his lesson.
  • Where’s the Defense? – It was yet another winless week for the Sacred Heart Pioneers, as they dropped two contests to middling teams of the Patriot League. Sacred Heart had their opportunities to win both, but only before they had made exhaustive comebacks in each game. The biggest culprit is the defense, which has allowed 1.12 points per possession this season, good for third worst in the NEC. If the Pioneers are going to overcome the crippling injuries to the backcourt, then they’ll need defensive stops eventually. In crunch time versus Lafayette, the defense never stepped up. In fact, the Pioneers gave up 17 Lafayette points in their final 12 possessions, good for a 1.42 PPP. That will simply not get it done.

Ryan Peters covers Northeast Conference men’s basketball for Big Apple Buckets and Pioneer Pride. You can follow Ryan on Twitter @pioneer_pride

A disappointing Wednesday night of NEC basketball

Coming into tonight, any NEC fan could have made the logical argument that the conference would finish a perfect 6-0 on the night. After all, you had four home favorites and two slight underdogs on the road. There were no elite opponents on the schedule, just middle of the road mid-major teams that the NEC should feast on. Well, two teams took advantage. The other four? Let’s delve into that, shall we?

Holy Cross 83, Sacred Heart 78
For a game that had only one tie and zero lead changes, it was a surprisingly entertaining game in the second half. Holy Cross built up a 17 point lead by riding the hot hand of Justin Burrell who had 20 points in the first half. Despite their typically lousy start, the Pioneers chipped away with the help of Shane Gibson and freshman De’Aires Tate (10 points, six rebounds in 15 minutes). After a spirited comeback tied the game at 72 apiece, Holy Cross drilled a three and sunk their free throws late to hold for the victory. Offensively, the Pioneers were OK but the defense was once again porous, as they allowed the Crusaders to shoot 52.7% from the floor. Tonight was the seventh time in seven games Sacred Heart has trailed at the half. That isn’t a recipe for success, I reckon.

Yale 64, Bryant 62
This one surprised me a bit, as Bryant was riding a four game winning streak into a home matchup against the 2-6 Yale Bulldogs. But ten Yale Bulldogs scored in the game, while the Bryant offensive attack was the exact opposite of balanced. Dyami Starks and Alex Francis did their part, combining for 41 points on 30 shots, but only three other Bulldogs put up a crooked number. Bryant had their opportunities to pull ahead late, but they missed three free throws in the final two minutes before Justin Sears hit the game winning layup at the buzzer. Heartbreak city in Smithfield.

Quinnipiac 67, Colgate 56
It was the same old story for the Bobcats tonight: They dominated the boards (+12 rebounding margin), held Colgate to 37.0% shooting, and hit a far from impressive percentage of their twos, threes, and free throws. Classic Tom Moore basketball, everybody! It was enough for the win, however, mainly because Quinnipiac got to the line 38 times, and made 25 of those. Anytime you can outscore a team by 15 points at the charity stripe, that’s a good thing. Also a good thing: Ike Azotam and Jamee Jackson each had a double double.

Navy 85, Monmouth 66
Wait, what?!?! In the biggest upset of the night, the Patriot League continued to own the Northeast Conference in a stunner at the MAC. Monmouth struggling on the offensive end is far from surprising, but the fact that the Midshipmen scored 53 points in the second half on Monmouth’s defense is, well stunning. One of the best teams at turning their opponents over, Monmouth only forced 11 Navy turnovers and allowed the Midshipmen to shoot 57.1% from the field. The lopsided win broke Navy’s 18 game road losing streak and snapped Monmouth four game winning streak. Senior Jeese Steele’s struggles continued as he only scored three points on eight shots. He’s now shooting less than 30% for the season.

Albany 77, St. Francis Brooklyn 73
In a wild game in up-state New York, Albany continued its winning ways with another home win over a NEC opponent. The Great Danes hit 11 of 17 three-pointers and jumped out to a ridiculous 18-0 lead from the opening tip. To Glenn Braica’s credit, St. Francis fought back and even held a brief one point lead in the second half. But Albany senior Mike Black was too much, scoring 21 points in the victory. The Terriers were out-rebounded by 11, gave up 1.17 points per possession, and were outscored at the free throw line, 20-6. Travis Nicholas, Ben Mockford, and Jalen Cannon scored 51 of St. Francis’ 73 points. Looking ahead, it may get worse before it gets better with Boston College, Stony Brook, and St. Johns on the immediate schedule.

Central Connecticut 87, New Hampshire 84
After falling behind and trailing by as many as 12 points in the second half, Howie Dickenman’s resilient bunch came up big once again late. Five Blue Devils scored in double digits, led of course by the nation’s leading scorer, Kyle Vinales. The sophomore had 27 points on 18 shots to go along with seven assists and three steals in, wouldn’t you know it, 40 minutes of play. The victory gives Central Connecticut a winning record at 4-3, before they head to Assembly Hall to face the #1 team in the land, the Indiana Hoosiers. This contest will surely test the Blue Devils’ lack of depth, especially when they’ll be forced to guard players like Christian Watford, Cody Zeller, and Yogi Ferrell.

Ryan Peters covers Northeast Conference basketball for Big Apple Buckets and Pioneer Pride. You can follow Ryan on Twitter @pioneer_pride

NEC Week 3 Recap: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

It was a short week thanks to the holiday weekend, but there’s plenty to talk about in our third edition of the NEC’s the good, the bad, and the ugly. There have been plenty of surprises and disappointments in the early going, which you’ll find out rather quickly since FDU and Bryant headline our The Good section! Let’s begin… Continue reading “NEC Week 3 Recap: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly”