The computer’s MAAC tourney predictions all revolve around one team: Iona. The Gaels dominate everything you’ll in the simulation results. Basically, if you slip past them, whatever round you come across the MAAC’s most talented team, you’ve got a shot at winning a title. That’s especially true for a team like Fairfield. According to the sim results the semifinal between the Gaels and Stags is the gateway to the title. Almost 60% of the time Fairfield got past Iona, Sydney Johnson’s team won the league title.
Category: Iona
End of season tempo-free MAAC
Regular season MAAC play has come to its inevitable conclusion. The final day offered a few surprises as Rider beat Fairfield at home, Loyola (MD) pulled out a squeaker over Manhattan and Marist went off on Niagara. All of those results have been included in this final edition of the tempo-free MAAC and will also impact the projected tournament results that I will unveil on Tuesday afternoon. It’s been quite the ride. For some more reading on the MAAC, checkout out this Q&A Siena Saints Blog did with MAAC commissioner Rich Ensor.
It wasn’t easy, but Iona takes the MAAC
Last night Iona had to work to get over the final hump, but with one game remaining the Gaels now have a two-game lead over a the three-way tie for second place. Honestly, that’s how it should be. Fairfield, Loyola (MD) and Manhattan are good basketball teams, but Iona is the class of the league this season. They’ve finally proved it too. The win over the Stags was the fifth straight for the Gaels.
Still, I think Iona would rather not see the Greyhounds in Springfield, MA next week. It’s all about the match ups. From the beginning of the season the Gaels have struggled with teams that rebound well (see every loss this season). Loyola rebounds really well. Iona would certainly benefit if the Greyhounds were knocked off before a rematch. Of course it’s quite possible that Loyola could be facing Iona in the semifinals. The Manhattan-Loyola game on Sunday looms huge over the MAAC standings.
Lost in the hype over Iona defeating Fairfield last night was the fact that another record fell at Manhattan, and the Jaspers now have 20 wins. Rhamel Brown set the single-season record for blocks in a season at Manhattan, breaking Arturo Dubois’ 2005-06 mark of 74 with his second block of the game. Brown finished with three in 19 minutes after getting the start. He has the highest block rate in the country. Yes, it’s higher than Jeff Withey, Anthony Davis or Fab Melo. In fact, Brown’s block rate is higher than all but seven teams in the entire NCAA.
Sunday should be a lot of fun.
Probabilities for conference seeding
It’s the final weekend for most college hoops leagues and there’s still a lot to be determined. I’m going to run down the percentages of some important things happening for the teams from the area still competing for conference positions. I’m include the % chance, determined via the Ken Pomeroy odds of a certain scenario coming true.
Final Regular Season NYC Power Poll
The regular season is almost over and its time for another power poll! It seems that people are still deciding between Iona and Seton Hall. The Pirates got a convincing victory over Georgetown this week, but the Gaels are also super popular due to their domination of the MAAC. Now if either team could just play with a little bit of consistency. Also, there’s a three-way tie for seventh. Figure that out.
Machado and Glover near top of Value Add
Scott Machado and Mike Glover of Iona are in the top 60 players in the entire country according to Value Add, a statistic created by John Pudner. You can see the list of the Top 200 on the site there. Interestingly, three NEC players also appear in Value Add, but it’s not who you’d expect. There’s Central Connecticut’s Ken Horton (#27) and then Wagner’s Tyler Murray (#144) and Quinnipiac’s Ike Azotam (#162). Pouring over I’m guessing that a slight adjustment for playing time is why Azotam is on the list and LIU’s Julian Boyd isn’t. It’s also interesting that Murray’s 124.6 offensive rating is enough to make up for his relatively low usage rate (just 17.1%) and put him in the Top 150.
2012 NIT Bracket from BPI
Here is the second edition of the NIT bracket using Drew Cannon’s BPI. I want to note a few things. Here are auto-bids by teams that you might be wondering where they are:
- Iona (MAAC auto, would’ve been the final at-large according to BPI)
- Akron (MAC auto, would’ve been in NIT)
- Murray State (OVC auto, would’ve been in NIT)
- Oral Roberts (Summit auto, would’ve been in NIT)
- VCU (CAA auto, would’ve been in NIT)
- Davidson (Southern auto, would’ve been in NIT)
- Cleveland St. (Horizon auto, would’ve been in NIT)
- Wagner (NEC auto, would be the 12th team into the NIT)
Final four teams into NCAA via at-large: Northwestern ($), Minnesota, Arizona and Saint Joseph’s
Now that we’ve got that out of the way. Here is the bracket. Note: As I did the last time I preserved the S-curve so there are match ups here that don’t make sense or would be reseeded. What it does mean though is that the ones are the top four teams into the NIT, the twos the next four etc. Hopefully this is informative. I’ll have a fully human authored and seeded bracket on Thursday.
1. Xavier
8. Tennessee
4. Colorado
5. LSU
3. Cincinnati
6. New Mexico State
2. South Dakota State
7. Dayton
1. Wyoming
8. Mercer
4. UCF
5. Oregon
3. Colorado State
6. Stanford
2. Drexel
7. Buffalo
1. Mississippi State
8. Virginia Tech
4. Pittsburgh
5. St. Bonaventure
3. Marshall
6. South Florida
2. La Salle
7. UCLA
1. Northern Iowa
8. Denver
4. Missouri State
5. Arkansas
3. Massachusetts
6. Mississippi
2. Washington
7. Villanova
To be honest. This is a pretty nice and quite reasonable bracket. The first four teams left out are: Montana, Tulsa, Kent State and Duquesne. There are good match ups throughout the bracket and an intriguing potential second regional final between Xavier and Cincinnati. My guess is that a couple of these would get flipped in a true NIT bracket, for instance Arkansas would host Missouri State, South Florida would host Marshall, Stanford would host Colorado State, etc. but it seems like the right teams are getting in. It’s also worth noting that there is an 11-13 Villanova team somewhat safely into the field. It’s crazy, but the Wildcats are sitting right around the NIT bubble.
Tempo-free MAAC: The more things change…
At the beginning of the season there was a four-horse race at the top of the MAAC standings according to most pundits. Well here we are with just a few weeks left in the regular season and we’re right back where we started. The MAAC is a four-horse race. All you have to do resolve things is change the name Rider with Manhattan and you’ve got pretty much what everyone expected. There’s a talented Iona team leading the pack and four teams in the Top 125 on KenPom that can beat each other on any given night.
That’s right, we’re officially welcoming Fairfield back into the fold after the Stags went to Baltimore and did what Iona couldn’t in a convincing 68-51 win in 62 possessions. That’s a dominating performance and it all comes down to match ups. That’s why even though the Gaels look like a heavy favorite right now and are still the top team in the conference according to efficiency margin, they’re certainly beatable.
Tempo-free Standings:
1. Iona (12-3) — +0.204
2. Manhattan (11-4) — +0.132
3. Fairfield (10-4) — +0.100
4. Loyola (MD) (12-3) — +0.095
5. Rider (8-7) — +0.024
6. Niagara (6-9) — -0.047
7. Siena (6-9) — -0.056
8. Marist (4-10) — -0.116
9. St. Peter’s (4-11) — -0.163
10. Canisius (1-14) — -0.180
I’d like to note here that Iona’s efficiency margin in conference is pretty darn impressive. The Gaels though have been inconsistent and its cost them a couple wins and made things interesting at the top of the standings. Scott Machado triple-doubles are going to help this team make it through, but I think it’s telling that he grabbed 11 rebounds. Iona needs him to do it. Still, Fairfield won the league last season at a +0.13, that’s like Manhattan this season. The Gaels are on another level.
Superlatives:
Best Offense: Iona at 1.18 points per possession
Best Defense: Manhattan (just barely) at 0.921 points allowed per possession (Fairfield is #2 at 0.922)
Worst Offense: St. Peter’s at 0.89 points per possession
Worst Defense: Canisius at 1.11 points allowed per possession
Luckiest: St. Peter’s at 2.1 wins above expected
Unluckiest: Iona at 1.5 wins below expected
Your highest variance contender (out of the top four) is Manhattan. The highest variance teams overall are Rider and Marist. The lowest variance team overall is still Loyola (MD) and then Fairfield and Canisius.
Iona’s bad habits resurface in loss to Loyola (MD)
The Loyola (MD) Greyhounds now control their own destiny in the MAAC. All of Iona’s bad habits came back on Friday night on ESPNU and the Gaels find themselves looking for answers once again after last night’s 87-81 defeat.
The problem was the defense. There’s an established baseline of how bad Iona’s defense can be and still win games against good competition, this game exceeded that threshold. The Gaels have lost four of five games this season when they’ve allowed their opponent to score more than 1.13 points per possession. The one win was against Canisius. The four losses were to Purdue, Loyola (MD), Manhattan and Marshall – four of the best teams on Iona’s schedule.
It’s a pity that the defense hasn’t shown up in these big spots, because the Gaels have played alright offensively in each of those games. But even with all the talent Iona has on the offensive side of the ball, it’s not really prepared for a shootout. At the end of a shootout you have to get one or two key stops that help you get back into the game and win it. Iona can’t make those plays.
Like many of Iona’s losses this season the Gaels were forced to play from behind. Loyola (MD) led by 17 at halftime and by 25 with 13:42 remaining in the second half before the comeback started. It’s nearly impossible to come back from that type of deficit. While Iona did manage to make it a four-point game with 26 seconds remaining, that’s just too late.
According to the Win Probability graph on Ken Pomeroy’s site ($) Loyola had around a 60% chance of winning this game from about 12:39 remaining in the first half on and a greater than 75% chance of winning at every moment after the under four minute media timeout. By the time Iona started its comeback the Greyhounds had something like a 98% chance of winning the game. Nobody likes playing with 2% odds (especially when you started with around 50/50).
The more I think about it and the more I look at the stats Iona reminds me of fast-paced Northwestern. Both teams have elite offenses and suspect defenses. When they go up against good competition the cracks in the defense begin to show and the team struggles a bit. The fortunate thing for Iona is that the Gaels play in the MAAC. All that winning the regular season title will do for Jimmy Patsos is give his team a No. 1 seed in Springfield. From there it’s a race to the tournament title.
So that’s not worth too much. There’s four good teams in the MAAC, so unless someone gets upset you’re not avoiding them anyways in the semifinals. Fairfield, the current fourth place team, is a much harder matchup for Loyola than either Manhattan or Iona. Sydney Johnson’s team has the big men that can bang and run with Shane Walker (22 points, 10 boards) and the guards to track down Dylon Cormier (22 points) on defense. Fairfield and Manhattan are the two MAAC teams committed the most to playing defense. In a short tournament over a few days in Massachusetts that might be enough.
If that’s the case, Iona will just be left to wonder, “What if?”
Off the cuff MAAC schedule analysis
I’d prefer to do a little more in depth investigation of each of these schedules, but the four MAAC contenders definitely have different levels of difficulty to climb over the final few weeks of the season. It obviously starts tonight with Iona at Loyola (MD). The Gaels are a slight favorite, somewhere between two points (KenPom, Sagarin) and just over a half point (Accuscore), and I can’t believe Vegas has it all the way up around 2.5 points.
After this game in Baltimore the schedule really breaks nicely for Iona. Here’s what the Gaels have remaining:
- Marist (H)
- Rider (A)
- Fairfield (H)
- St. Peter’s (H)
That’s a pretty easy schedule. There’s three home games and a tricky road game against a good Rider team. The Stags have been rolling lately, but it might come to and end here down the stretch. That’s because they probably have the hardest remaining schedule of any MAAC contender and it starts on Sunday against Loyola (MD). Here it is:
- Loyola (MD) (A)
- St. Peter’s (H)
- Iona (A)
- Rider (A)
There’s three tough games in there and they’re all on the road. Sydney Johnson’s club has a great chance to prove that the recent four-game winning streak is no fluke by going into some tough environments and getting the wins that would put them right back at or near the top of the conference standings.
For completeness here are the two middle schedules. First Manhattan:
- St. Peter’s (A)
- Siena (A)
- Canisius (H)
- Loyola (MD) (H)
The Jaspers have just one game against a MAAC contender remaining, but the rest of these aren’t givens either considering two are on the road. Manhattan will have to bring its offense to Jersey City and Albany in order to remain in the top four in the standings.
And here’s Loyola (MD)’s post tonight’s big game against Iona:
- Fairfield (H)
- Marist (A)
- Rider (A)
- Manhattan (A)
The toughest part about this schedule is that the Greyhounds have to go on the road for their three final games. That’s going to make things a bit more difficult, but only one is against a top contender – though another is against the very variable Broncs squad. In fact, with games against three of the four contenders remaining – and all of them at home – Rider is one of the most interesting teams to watch down the stretch. Tommy Dempsey’s team is just 8-6 in conference play right now, but after Saturday’s game at Niagara they will be the team outside of these four that has the biggest impact on the final MAAC results.
Then it’s off to Springfield and MAACachusetts.
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