Category: Harvard

Ivy League Weekly Roundup: March 9

What Happened Last Week: The biggest Ivy League basketball weekend in quite some time. On Friday, Yale beat Harvard to claim its first Ivy championship in a decade. Saturday afternoon, word leaked that Penn will find a new coach after the season. And that night, Yale’s last-second loss at Dartmouth left the Bulldogs tied with Harvard atop the league and headed for a playoff.

Three Thoughts:

1. Per Ken Pomeroy’s win probability chart, Yale’s chances at Dartmouth peaked at somewhere around 99% in the final minute. When Connor Boehm missed a shot with 28 seconds remaining and the Big Green down by five, Yale could taste the NCAA tournament (and the hidden Ivy League trophy). A loose-ball foul on Armani Cotton seemed academic, leaving the visitors up three with the ball. But Javier Duren was tied up in the backcourt and Miles Wright dropped a wide-open three-pointer, setting up a wild finish.

Yale has been deadly in end-game situations this year, so it was no surprise when Duren drew two free throws with 2.3 seconds remaining. But he made only one — and it was the second one, leaving the clock stopped — allowing Dartmouth to throw a home-run pass that Justin Sears batted out of bounds.

From under the basket, the Big Green ran a beautiful baseline inbounds set to free Gabas Maldunas for a layup, sending Harvard’s gym into celebration and denying (or at least postponing) the Bulldogs’ first NCAA tournament since 1962.

2. Dartmouth’s thrilling victory had repercussions beyond Harvard and Yale — it gave the Big Green a 14-14 record for the season, making them eligible for their first postseason appearance since 1959. They wouldn’t have had a chance if not for another wild game on Friday night. Dartmouth trailed Brown 50-26 with 14 minutes to play, and their postseason hopes seemed dashed. (KenPom gave them roughly a 3% chance of winning at that point.) But the Big Green has gone on the league’s craziest runs all season — including 26-2 at Harvard and 18-4 at Columbia — and they flattened the Bears with another spurt.

Dartmouth scored 11 straight points in 66 seconds (including an oddly timed technical foul earned by Brown coach Mike Martin), then reeled off another 8-0 run shortly after. John Golden scored a season-high 12 points with timely plays, and Maldunas was a factor on both ends, blocking four shots. The Big Green’s biggest spark came from Malik Gill, whose contested three-pointer in the final minute put the hosts ahead for good. Brown went just 13-26 from the free-throw line in a losing effort.

Thanks to a thrilling weekend, Dartmouth finished the season with a five-game win streak, rising from 2-7 and the Ivy cellar to 7-7 and fourth place (its first top-half finish since 2009). Assuming the Big Green receive an invite to the CIT (or perhaps the CBI), it will be well deserved.

3. ESPN’s Jeff Goodman reported Saturday afternoon that Penn coach Jerome Allen will not return next season, which was surprising news only for its timing. Under Allen, the Quakers finished below .500 in three straight seasons for the first time ever, and this year’s seven-game losing streak was the longest in team history. Allen is a Penn icon who remains well-liked among players and the community, but the program needed a change.

Allen was told last Monday that he would not be allowed to return next year, per The Daily Pennsylvanian; Penn went on to snap its losing streak with a sweep of Columbia and Cornell last weekend. Maybe lame-duck head coaches are the new market inefficiency?

Weekly Awards:

Player of the Week: Maodo Lo, Columbia — It’s Monday, which means it must be time for another edition of Maodo Lo Shot Chart Theater. Lo scored a career-high 37 points in his season finale at Princeton, and unlike his 33 against Harvard last week, most of them came from outside (sometimes way outside). Lo drained 11 three-pointers at Princeton, setting an Ivy League single-game record. Usually, such a performance would get lead billing; on Saturday, it was maybe the fourth-biggest story in the Ivy League.

Maodo_Lo_Shot_Chart_Columbia-Princeton_37-points

Rookie of the Week: Miles Wright, Dartmouth — The Big Green’s game-winning shot wouldn’t have happened if not for Wright’s three-pointer that tied the game 12 seconds earlier, which in turn was made possible by Wright’s hustle for a rebound and two free throws on the prior possession. Before the final minute, the rookie hounded Yale’s ballhandlers for five steals, keeping the hosts close while their offense was struggling.

The Week Ahead: Harvard and Yale will meet at The Palestra on Saturday (time TBD), in the first Ivy League playoff in four years — and the first ever not involving either Penn or Princeton. Yale is ranked #75 in KenPom, while Harvard is #79, so this playoff shapes up to be just as exciting as the last one. The Bulldogs just won by 10 in Lavietes Pavilion, but a lot went right for them in that game, which won’t necessarily repeat itself this weekend.

We will reveal our Big Apple Buckets Ivy awards on Wednesday morning. The league’s official awards, though slightly less prestigious, will also be announced this week.

Power Rankings:

1. Harvard (11-3) — It’s remarkable how successful Harvard’s scoreboard-watching has been over the past few years. In 2012, the Crimson earned their first-ever NCAA bid when Princeton beat Penn in the season’s final game. In 2013, they entered the final weekend a game behind Princeton, winning the title outright only after the Tigers were swept at Yale and Brown. Harvard has deserved its success, but its past 4-5 years could have played out much differently.

2. Yale (11-3) — Makai Mason is likely Yale’s point guard of the future, but he was critical in the present on Saturday night. With Javier Duren limited by foul trouble and the Bulldogs’ role players scuffling, Mason came off the bench to score 19 points on 9-11 shooting.

3. Princeton (8-5) — Princeton was down 83-74 with two minutes remaining after Lo’s 11th three-pointer, but the Tigers scored the final 11 points to clinch their own postseason eligibility. They took advantage of two rare Lo misses and scored on four straight possessions, including two tough baskets through contact by Hans Brase. Both teams scored at least 1.32 points per possession in the shootout — and with most players returning, expect more of the same next year.

4. Dartmouth (7-7) — Harvard gave Gabas Maldunas and Dartmouth plenty of love on Saturday:

https://twitter.com/MattFraschilla/status/574393579415674880

…while others directed their gratitude toward higher powers:

5. Columbia (5-9) — The Lions needed just one win this weekend to clinch postseason eligibility, which made a road sweep particularly disappointing. Before collapsing at Princeton, Columbia was upset at Penn, managing only six points in the first 19 minutes. Even after all that, Lo was this close to saving the Lions at the buzzer at Jadwin (and reaching 40 points):

Video via the Ivy League Digital Network
Video via the Ivy League Digital Network

6. Cornell (5-9) — The Big Red needed a road sweep to be eligible for the postseason; they got swept instead, though Shonn Miller averaged 24 points per game in the final weekend of his Ivy career. With Miller, Galal Cancer and Devin Cherry all set to graduate, the Big Red might be in trouble next season.

7. Brown (4-10) — Rafael Maia ended his career in style, posting double-doubles in each of his last two games, but it was a forgettable Ivy campaign for the rest of the Bears. They’ll always have the win at Providence — which will mark the second time in three seasons a last-place Ivy finisher beat an at-large NCAA tournament team.

8. Penn (4-9) — The Quakers doubled their Ivy win title last weekend, offering some hope for next year with most of their core returning. Penn had the second-worst offense in Ivy play, but no team scored more efficiently against Cornell than the Quakers did in either game (1.22 points per possession in Ithaca, 1.11 at home).

NIT Bracketology: March 9

Note: The NIT bracket has a new permanent home. I’ll still be posting with thoughts, but that will always have my most recent bracket.

We’re coming down the home stretch. This is latest and greatest in NIT bracketology. Continue reading “NIT Bracketology: March 9” →

After Winning Finale, Harvard Learns Of Ivy Playoff

After losing to Yale the previous night, Harvard entered Saturday needing a win and a Yale loss to earn a share of the Ivy title. The Crimson’s game tipped an hour earlier, so when they finished a 72-62 victory over Brown, the Bulldogs still had 20 minutes left to play at Dartmouth. With their fate out of their hands, Harvard’s locker room was feeling, in the words of senior Wesley Saunders, apprehensive. Continue reading “After Winning Finale, Harvard Learns Of Ivy Playoff” →

Cold Shooting Dooms Harvard In Ivy Title Showdown

Basketball is a funny sport to analyze. Over the past four months, we’ve all spent countless hours debating Harvard and Yale as championship contenders. This week, Ray and I exchanged 1,500 words previewing Friday’s matchup. And ultimately, the de facto title game — and the biggest Ivy League contest in four years, a college generation — was decided in large part by who made their three-pointers that night.

Playing at home with a chance to secure its fifth straight Ivy title, Harvard went just 2-17 from three-point range. The Crimson hasn’t been very prolific from beyond the arc all year, but their shots against Yale came mostly from their best shooters in good positions. Corbin Miller, a career 41% shooter from distance, went 0-8 on Friday. Siyani Chambers, 37% for his career, went 1-6. With the exception of two heaves late in the shot clock, most of Harvard’s attempts were open and in rhythm.

Meanwhile, Yale went 7-16 from beyond the arc, even though top shooter Jack Montague was bottled up for most of the game.

Harvard-Yale_shot_chart_3-point_combo

As if to underscore basketball’s randomness, Yale forward Justin Sears made his first two three-pointers of the year — both awkward line drives that snuck over the rim — at the best possible time.

“I thought we had a ton of shots. We just didn’t make them. I don’t know what else to say,” Harvard coach Tommy Amaker said.

None of that means Yale didn’t deserve to win. The Bulldogs put themselves in position to take advantage of Harvard’s drought, scoring 1.05 points per possession against the league’s best defense. Javier Duren constantly frustrated the Crimson, getting his 22 points on a combination of tough floaters and three-pointers, including a dagger from 23 feet in the final two minutes.

On the other end, the Bulldogs sent double-teams aggressively on the perimeter and in the post, which paid off when Harvard’s big men didn’t make the right passes. Zena Edosomwan played only nine minutes after missing four early shots in the face of Yale pressure.

Still, if Miller makes two or three of his treys, and if Chambers hits another — bringing both in line with their career marks — then a 10-point margin becomes a toss-up. Miller in particular had a rough night: Chambers and Wesley Saunders found him time after time, in transition and from kick-outs, sticking with their guns even as Miller struggled (as they should). But the sophomore’s shots kept finding the top of the rim, as he missed eight treys and another long jumper.

“He’s our marksman, our three-point guy, and what a tough night for him. Of his nine shots, only one I know for sure was forced or a bad shot,” Amaker said. “Boy, did he get some looks that we would kill to have for him tomorrow night, and I know he’s going to be better than he was tonight.”

Harvard’s loss overshadowed a dominant game from Steve Moundou-Missi. As in the first meeting, Moundou-Missi kept Justin Sears quiet: Sears got only one shot at the rim, which came off his only offensive rebound, and needed his two surprising treys to reach 10 points. And on the other end, the senior attacked Sears fearlessly, scoring 21 points on a combination of face-up jumpers, physical drives and put-backs from 10 rebounds.

“He was one of the few people out there who really battled, and I think he left it all out there on the floor,” Saunders said. “He was trying to spark us and get us energized, but we never really caught on.”

Harvard trailed 22-19 at halftime — not much prettier than the 16-11 score in the first meeting — but Yale ballooned its lead to 12 points, thanks to second-chance points from Armani Cotton (who finished with 14) and Sears. The hosts made several small runs, but each was answered by the Bulldogs — an athletic putback and-one from Khaliq Ghani here, a patented Matt Townsend two-point jumper there. Duren was perfect on free throws down the stretch, slowly hammering the penultimate nail in Harvard’s coffin.

Harvard’s only path to a fifth straight Ivy title is a win over Brown tomorrow night and a Yale loss at Dartmouth. (The latter is hardly a longshot, as the Big Green has won five of its last six.) If that parlay hits, Harvard and Yale will play a rubber match at The Palestra next week to determine the automatic qualifier to the NCAA Tournament.

And though Friday’s loss was devastating, the Crimson has received help in the past. In 2012, they lost at home to Penn with two games remaining, avoiding a playoff only when Princeton beat the Quakers in the season finale. In 2013, they were swept at Princeton and Penn in early March, regaining control of their own destiny only when the Tigers were swept the following weekend.

So Harvard’s hopes for a fourth straight tournament bid are on life support. But they’re not dashed yet.

“We just have to take care of business tomorrow and see where the chips fall,” Saunders said. “Crazier stuff has happened.”

Yale Stuns Harvard, But Ivy Job Not Quite Done Yet

To paraphrase the immortal Jake Taylor, “Yale ain’t won nothin’ yet, they still have one more to go.”

Such is the awkwardness of the 14-game Ivy League Tournament that even after a 62-52 win at Lavietes Pavilion over four-time defending Ivy champ Harvard, their job is not quite done yet.

Continue reading “Yale Stuns Harvard, But Ivy Job Not Quite Done Yet” →

A Conversation Preview About Yale-Harvard Ivy Armageddon

With Ivy League armageddon upon us Friday night at Lavietes Pavilion, we decided to mix things up a bit. Instead of bringing you an Xs and Os preview, Ray Curren and Kevin Whitaker had an e-mail conversation and here is what they discussed. Kevin has covered Harvard all season, while Ray has seen play of Yale. Can Yale repeat its victory at Harvard last season and put one hand on its first outright Ivy crown (and NCAA Tournament appearance) since 1962? Or will Harvard keep the championship belt for at least one more year?

Continue reading “A Conversation Preview About Yale-Harvard Ivy Armageddon” →

Ivy League Weekly Roundup: Mar. 1

What Happened Last Week: Harvard lost at Cornell, falling back into a tie for first place with Yale at 10-2. The Crimson beat Columbia the following night, while the Bulldogs beat Princeton and Penn despite trailing both in the second half. Dartmouth earned an impressive road sweep of the New York teams. Continue reading “Ivy League Weekly Roundup: Mar. 1” →

Cornell Beats Harvard For First Time Under Courtney; Ivy Tied

The scoreboard doesn’t lie, of course, but even when the numbers on the Cornell side started to get significantly greater than Harvard’s and the time began to dwindle, there was still little doubt that the Crimson being the Crimson, they would come back and win.

And sure enough, soon the run began. But on this night, it never finished. And Cornell did, with head coach Bill Courtney beating Tommy Amaker for the first time in 10 meetings and throwing the Ivy League race back into chaos with a 57-49 upset of the four-time defending Ivy champs at Newman Arena Friday night.

Continue reading “Cornell Beats Harvard For First Time Under Courtney; Ivy Tied” →

Resurgent Offense Keys Harvard’s Streak

One month ago, Harvard was coming off of a home loss to Dartmouth, and their chances for a fourth straight NCAA tournament appearance were very much in doubt. The Crimson had lost four of seven D-I games, they were about to embark on a four-game road trip, and for only the second time in four years, they trailed an Ivy foe, unbeaten Yale, in the league standings.

Since then, they’ve won eight straight games, and January’s worries seem distant. Harvard has had its share of close calls — and nothing has been clinched yet — but entering this weekend’s trip to Cornell and Columbia, the Crimson appears to be in top form.

What has changed in the last month?

Harvard_Efficiency_Margin

(All charts include Division-I games only. Data via KenPom.com)

Harvard’s defense, ranked 13th nationally per KenPom, has been remarkably consistent. Its midseason struggles came almost entirely on the other end: Starting with an embarrassing loss to Virginia, the Crimson averaged less than .90 points per possession through their 3-4 stretch. But they’ve been above 1.00 in nearly every game since (save for the rockfight at Yale), thanks to a few key improvements.

Saunders’ adjustments

Wesley Saunders wasn’t to blame for Harvard’s January struggles; he was the team’s best player then, just as he’s been all year. But in the Crimson’s 4-3 stretch, Saunders had a below-average offensive rating in five games, and reduced usage in the other two.

Back in the swing of Ivy play, the star wing’s efficiency has risen. While not quite at the All-America level he showed early on, Saunders has carried Harvard at key times this month — such as his 23-point performance against Princeton, his second-best game this season in combined usage and efficiency.

Wesley_Saunders_Harvard_Production

(The area of each box represents total production per game, with usage on the x-axis and efficiency on the y-axis.)

Saunders has made one obvious adjustment this month: He’s attempted 4.2 three-pointers per game in February; his prior career high in any game was four. Saunders is making those shots, most of which are wide-open, at a 40% clip, a dastardly counter to defenses who focus on walling off the paint.

“If they’re going to slough off him and play him for the drive, which a lot of people have done — and rightly so, he’s a tremendous slasher — when he has an open three, he’s a pretty good shooter with that shot,” Harvard coach Tommy Amaker said. “We’re hopeful that he can mix it in and keep the defense off balance.”

Saunders has also nearly doubled his assist-to-turnover ratio in recent weeks; his 37.4% assist rate is the best in Ivy play. In part, that’s been possible because…

Supporting stars step up

Siyani_Chambers_Steve_Moundou-Missi_Harvard_Offensive_Efficiency

Siyani Chambers entered the year as a Player of the Year candidate, but as recently as mid-January, his offensive rating was among the league’s worst. More quietly, Steve Moundou-Missi’s was in the same range. Both players, second-team All-Ivy teammates last year, were due to improve — and both have posted triple-digit offensive ratings in each of their last four games.

Chambers struggled against physical defenses and had to bail Harvard out of some doomed possessions early in the year; but other issues, such as sub-30% shooting on three-pointers, were his own doing. The point guard’s shooting has regressed in the good way (44% in the last four weeks), and he’s become more opportunistic about driving inside.

One of the league’s most efficient scorers a year ago, Moundou-Missi’s true shooting percentage has cratered by more than 10 percentage points. The culprit is clear: After attempting 64% of his shots at the rim as a junior (and 70% as a sophomore), the forward has taken only 45% of his shots at the cylinder this season, per Hoop-Math.com.

Moundou-Missi has improved his midrange game, but it’s frustrating to see one of the league’s most dynamic athletes consigned to spot-up duty from 15 feet. He’s still shooting plenty of jumpers, but he’s been more involved at the rim lately, and his efficiency has risen.

More offensive lineups

Harvard’s rotation has been debated constantly, but Amaker’s adjustments this month have helped the Crimson score more points:

Harvard_Roster_MPG

Along with injured center Kenyatta Smith, the three players who have seen substantially less time in February are Agunwa Okolie, Evan Cummins and Matt Brown — three of the lowest-usage players on Harvard’s roster. In their place, more minutes are going to higher-volume shooters in Moundou-Misssi and Zena Edosomwan, as well as Jonah Travis, the most efficient scorer in Ivy play. Even Andre Chatfield, though his usage rate is low as he plays back from injury, earns respect from opposing defenses as an explosive guard with a three-star pedigree.

With more offensive threats on the floor, foes can’t load up to stop Saunders, nor can they direct more attention to Chambers and Moundou-Missi. Harvard’s stars have taken advantage, rebounding from a tough January while still playing stout defense.

None of this means the Crimson are in the clear. Today’s visit to Cornell is their toughest offensive matchup of the Ivy season; Saturday’s trip to Columbia will be one of their toughest matchups, period. Even with its improved offense, Harvard is more likely than not to drop a game this weekend. But with a fine-tuned rotation and their stars peaking, the Crimson has given themselves some room for error.

Ivy League Weekly Roundup: Feb. 22

What Happened Last Week: The favorites held serve at the top of the Ivy League on Friday, but Saturday was more exciting. Columbia toppled Yale in New Haven, giving the Bulldogs their second Ivy loss. Meanwhile, Harvard survived a scare from Princeton to claim first place alone. Continue reading “Ivy League Weekly Roundup: Feb. 22” →