Well, the NIT bracket is set! Now it is time to actually play the game. Predicting the NIT can be hazardous for all sorts of reasons, but it’s still fun. I gave it a shot. And you should too.
My NIT bracket projection is here. I have California, St. John’s, Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech advancing to Madison Square Garden, with the Red Storm taking the title. I guess that’s not particularly gutsy, but I think a motivated St. John’s team will play well enough during its games at Carnesecca Arena to advance through its region. I also ran simulations and St. John’s has the second best odds of anyone of making it to the final four of the NIT. Here are the odds for each region of a team makings its regional final and advancing to MSG.
SMU Region:
| Teams | Regional Final | Onto MSG |
|---|---|---|
| SMU | 64% | 49% |
| California | 56% | 21% |
| Arkansas | 35% | 15% |
| San Francisco | 17% | 6% |
| LSU | 12% | 5% |
| UC Irvine | 6% | 2% |
| Indiana St. | 8% | 2% |
| Utah Valley | 2% | 0% |
St. John’s Region:
| Teams | Regional Final | Onto MSG |
|---|---|---|
| St. John’s | 66% | 47% |
| Clemson | 51% | 22% |
| Green Bay | 27% | 13% |
| Georgia St. | 22% | 7% |
| Illinois | 19% | 7% |
| Belmont | 6% | 2% |
| Boston U. | 8% | 1% |
| Robert Morris | 2% | 0% |
Florida St. Region:
| Teams | Regional Final | Onto MSG |
|---|---|---|
| Florida St. | 63% | 44% |
| Louisiana Tech | 44% | 21% |
| Georgia | 35% | 13% |
| Georgetown | 25% | 11% |
| West Virginia | 11% | 4% |
| Iona | 11% | 3% |
| Vermont | 10% | 3% |
| Florida Gulf Coast | 1% | 0% |
Minnesota Region:
| Teams | Regional Final | Onto MSG |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 60% | 40% |
| Missouri | 49% | 22% |
| Southern Miss | 36% | 17% |
| Utah | 22% | 11% |
| St. Mary’s | 18% | 7% |
| Toledo | 9% | 2% |
| Davidson | 6% | 1% |
| High Point | 1% | 0% |
Obviously home court advantage is absolutely huge in the NIT. That’s why the No. 1 seeds are projected to advance so far even though Louisiana Tech, Utah and Clemson are lurking in brackets. In fact, Utah got the worst draw of all. The Utes were sent on the road for their first round game and will most likely play on the road in every round as a five seed. They’re talented, but it is a major uphill climb. Also in trouble? Iona. The Gaels have to go all the way to Louisiana Tech for the first round and the Bulldogs are no slouch either. I was worried that an East Coast team would be forced to travel out to Ruston, LA. I was just hoping it wouldn’t be the Gaels. No such luck.
Another example of home court advantage? If Illinois was able to play at home the Illini would have a 21% chance of advancing to MSG. Instead it’s down to just 7% because they’ll start off traveling to Boston University and then travel around eastern third of the U.S. until they lose or head to MSG. That’s a tough task for John Groce’s squad.
What team do you think has a chance to be a sleeper in the NIT? What is your final four look like at MSG?
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