One knows college basketball is ready to begin when the preseason all-conference lists are published. There are several players who could have merited inclusion in either of the three teams, but the presence of lingering question marks pushed them to receive an honorable mention. Continue reading “Big East All-Conference Team”
Tag: Seton Hall
Three Questions: St. John’s and Seton Hall
The Big East holds their first post-realignment media day today, an event usually held on Central Park South that now takes place at Chelsea Piers. While a fair number of the familiar faces will be missed, from Jim Boeheim to Jamie Dixon, the new-look conference still holds a significant amount of the local college spotlight.
St. John’s hasn’t been mentioned as a favorite for the Big East regular season title, but the Red Storm have the most amount of returning talent on the roster and have the potential to spend much of January and February in the conference’s upper echelon. Much of the anticipation surrounding Seton Hall centers around the team’s stellar 2014 recruiting class, but Kevin Willard’s group is finally healthy and possesses the Big East’s best all-around player. In order to better portend what may transpire with both the Johnnies and the Pirates in 2013-14, here are the three questions that are crucial to the success of each squad.
Seton Hall
Who scores other than Fuquan Edwin?
Now entering his final college season, Fuquan Edwin, in my opinion, is the most valuable in the Big East — no other player means more to his squad than the 6’6″ wing. Not only did Edwin lead the Pirates in scoring (16.5 ppg) but his points were built on efficient shooting — 46% from two and 41% from beyond the arc — and he was more aggressive as the offense’s primary option, using screens more frequently while then getting into the lane and drawing nearly two more fouls per 40 minutes. Continuing with the accolades, Edwin is also the conference’s most-effective on-ball defender. Seton Hall should be better than their 2013 record (3-15) indicated — Aaron Cosby and Kyle Smyth are the only two significant players missing from the 2014 roster — but a trio of Pirates need to inherit some of the scoring burden to ensure that record rises. There are two immediate options, one being Eugene Teague, a 6’9″ forward whose improved offseason conditioning — he lost nearly thirty pounds — will allow him to better finish on the block and second-chance possessions (Teague grabbed 12% of Seton Hall’s misses). The other is Patrik Auda, a big who redshirted last season and can stretch the floor and rarely turns the ball over. The key, though, is Brandon Mobley; the junior was oft-injured during Big East play, but his playing style — a wing who can shoot the three but is most effective working without the ball in the paint — complements the offensive skills Edwin, Teague, and the other Pirates bring to the court.
Will Seton Hall continue to rely on threes?
In 2012, roughly 30% of Seton Hall’s points came from three-pointers, but that percentage rose drastically last year (37%, which ranked thirteenth in the nation), and while the Hall were suited to bomb away from beyond the arc — the team made 36.7% of their attempts — they struggled to score when teams failed to stray from the three-point line (or when SHU had an off game). The now departed Smyth and Cosby combined to shoot 38% from three, and since his bigs saw more of the trainer than they did their coach, Willard was forced to depend on long-range shooting. The Hall’s healthy frontcourt means Willard’s offensive gameplan should shift in 2014 as Willard reengineers the offense to cater the Hall’s young true points (Jaren Sina and Sterling Gibbs) while also emphasizing post touches for a svelte Teague and perhaps utilizing more on pick and rolls involving the team’s multiple mobile bigs.
Can the extra inches help the defense?
The most interesting difference between the 2012 and 2013 Seton Hall squads is the disparity in defensive efficiency. While the ’12 team held Big East opponents under one point per possession, the ’13 Pirates struggled mightily to keep points off the board, allowing 1.07 OPPP (one of the conference’s worst rates). Herb Pope and Jordan Theodore were the only Pirates whose eligibility expired in last spring, so what happened? Theodore had a knack for aggressively pressuring ball-handler, and as a tandem, Theodore and Edwin generated countless steals. However, no one filled Theodore’s void and SHU was much less tenacious on the perimeter, which failed to hide the team’s real weakness; their lack of interior size meant allowing countless additional possessions. When any team isn’t forcing turnovers and giving up offensive boards, the OPPP is going to sky-rocket. Edwin will still fly around the court, picking both his man’s pocket while also causing turnovers with his help defense, but SHU’s defensive turnaround starts with the frontcourt, specifically the return of Mobley, Auda, Teague, and a now bulky Aaron Geramipoor.
St. John’s
What is Chris Obekpa’s impact in year two?
Judging by the minutes Steve Lavin doled out during St. John’s European trip, sophomore Chris Obekpa may come off the bench in 2013-14. While some may consider such a move shocking — how can a player, who blocked over 15% of opponents’ attempts, sit? — Obekpa was extremely limited on offense a year ago. The 6’9″ Obekpa had the lowest offensive rating of any Johnny that used more than 50 percent of the team’s minutes, and his range was essentially the space immediately surrounding the hoop. His main offseason goal had to center around developing any sort of post offense. St. John’s lacked a player capable of finishing on the block in 2013, and while Orlando Sanchez and God’sgift Achiuwa both have that potential to provide that balance, Obekpa needs at least one low-post counter move. Even if he continues to struggle scoring against Big East frontcourts, Lavin will still play him — he provides an instant impact on defense — but since SJU’s offense was truly stagnant in 2013, Obekpa needs to provide (and not just take away) points.
How many minutes will Rysheed Jordan use?
The addition of Rysheed Jordan allows Steve Lavin an option he has not had since he landed that monster recruiting class in 2011: he can now play both Jamal Branch and D’Angelo Harrison off the ball. Jordan’s supreme athleticism means he can go away from SJU screens and still get to the rim. Jordan’s game is built for north to south penetration, and all five sets of eyeballs will focus on Jordan when he steps on to the court (according to ESPN’s Fran Fraschilla, Jordan is “…good enough to start yesterday.” While both juniors have various isolation moves, and can create their own offense, they often need a pick to turn the corner on a defender, while Jordan’s presence will draw defenders from both guards (and the other Johnnies) and create openings that didn’t exist a year ago.
Does St. John’s need JaKarr Sampson to take jumpshots?
In late August, I wondered whether St. John’s would continue to take a high volume of two-point field goals — only one other DI team depended as heavily on generating offense off twos as SJU, and the Red Storm attempted 269 shots from between 17 feet and the three-point line (and made just 35% of those shots). ESPN’s John Gasaway recently wondered the same question, and asked Lavin if his players would continue to attempt those high-risk (but low-benefit) shots? According to Lavin, “The numbers that you’re looking at? They’re going to change … [and] it will be because we finally have some balance, including a perimeter attack … finishing at the rim was a challenge for our guys, and so was perimeter shooting, as you’ve indicated. Numbers aren’t going to drive or dictate everything you do, but they sure are a reflection of the strengths and weaknesses of your team. That’s what you saw with us last year.” What is intriguing about Lavin’s answer is that Sampson, when I spoke with him a few weeks ago, was fairly certain he’ll expand his jump-shooting repertoire this season. “I improved my range a lot this year and you’ll definitely see me make a lot more threes this year,” he said, adding that his main focus is still attacking the rim off the bounce. The arrival of Sanchez (and the return of Achiuwa) means Sampson will likely be used more as a 3 (he was most often placed at the 4 a year ago), so the opportunity is there for Sampson to take more two-point jump shots, but is that needed? Sampson and Jordan are the two Johnnies best able to get to the rim and finish, and with the potential openings Jordan (and Max Hooper) can create, Lavin needs Sampson to focus on converting around the bucket and getting to the free throw line.
Matt Giles is a reporter for New York Magazine and has contributed to College Basketball Prospectus 2012-13, ESPN the Magazine, ESPN Insider, the New York Times, BuzzFeed, and Salon. You can follow Matt on Twitter @HudsonGiles.
Big East Breakout Candidates in 2013-14
It was difficult to winnow down the possibilities for breakthrough candidates in the new-look Big East. The conference is stocked with teams that lost crucial elements of their roster following last season, and since there is no definitive favorite for the preseason title, there are countless players whose roles could substantially shift. One key, though, was limiting the list to those who have used one season of playing time, even if that player was redshirting and the PT was spent on the practice squad.
Daniel Ochefu (Villanova): Though Mouphtaou Yarou never truly developed into a dominant offensive threat, the 6’10” Yarou did evolve into a fantastic defender. A reason why Villanova made the NCAA tournament last season was their miniscule defensive two-point field goal percentage, fueled by Yarou’s ability to shrink the interior and force opposing bigs to take off-balanced shots. Without Yarou and Maurice Sutton, the defensive onus now falls on Daniel Ochefu — the sophomore is the only returning member of the Wildcats’ frontcourt. Jay Wright’s squad showed success using hard hedges to disrupt an opponent’s offense. Ochefu has demonstrated the necessary foot speed to show high and then quickly get back to his man to prevent an easy bucket, but he will now have to combine that footwork with crashing the glass to prevent second chances (Yarou grabbed more than 20% of opponents’ misses). Nova’s offense should click this season — the improvement of Ryan Archidiacano mixed with Dylan Ennis, a guard capable of breaking defenders down off the dribble, bodes well for VU’s offensive efficiency — but Ochefu’s play (and his 4.7% block rate) will be crucial to anchor the squad’s frontcourt and frustrate Big East teams in the paint.
Matt Stainbrook (Xavier): When Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons ran Xavier’s offense, the two guards heavily relied on Musketeer bigs to set picks and create clear looks (and lanes) at the basket. Nearly 15% of Xavier’s 2012 offensive sets were pick and rolls, a percentage that dipped below ten percent due to the arrival of Semaj Christon, a 6’3″ guard with a quick enough first step that he didn’t need a pick to turn the corner on a defender. However, now that Matt Stainbrook, a Western Michigan transfer, is eligible, Xavier’s offense could resume relying on P&Rs. When he last took the court, Stainbrook converted almost 60% of his twos, posting an offensive rating of 114, and the 6’9″ Stainbrook spent his redshirt season working on his game and slimming down his body. The combination of Stainbrook’s soft touch and conditioning indicates that Stainbrook-set picks on Christon’s defender might be commonplace at the Cintas Center next season. Even if he doesn’t receive a pass, the rolling Stainbrook would be in ideal position for offensive boards, and the big scores more than one point per second chance possession. An added bonus is Christon’s ability to draw fouls at a rapid pace when he gets into the lane — the guard drew 5.8 fouls per 40 minutes, a rate that is tops of any returning Big East guard.
Jamal Branch (St. John’s): It is unclear how Steve Lavin will organize his lineups this season, but he has mentioned two potential possibilities: using three guards — Rysheed Jordan, Jamal Branch, and D’Angelo Harrison — and a Johnny like Max Hooper at the 4, or going ‘big’ and taking advantage of SJU’s frontcourt depth. Branch, a junior guard, will be a key element in either lineup. It is unfair to evaluate Branch’s sophomore season — he didn’t take the court until after the first semester and he was clearly limited following an MCL sprain in early February. Branch is best when creating, getting into the lane and either locating open Johnnies, and based on how he performed during the team’s European trip, Branch’s offensive orchestration will allow further freedom to both Harrison and Jordan.
Sterling Gibbs (Seton Hall): The loss of Aaron Cosby was predicted weeks before the end of Seton Hall’s 2013 season, but coach Kevin Willard had a waiting starter in Sterling Gibbs, a transfer who is eligible this season. What is uncertain is how seamlessly Gibbs, who barely saw playing time at Texas, handles both the starting role and the Pirates’ offense. Seton Hall returns a talented core — Fuquan Edwin is a potential player of the year candidate, and Willard can lean on a better in-shape Eugene Teague and now-healthy Brandon Mobley – which will lessen Gibbs’ scoring responsibility and allow him to solely focus on playmaking. But Gibbs isn’t offensively inept, and his shooting will force opponents from sagging off the 6’1″ guard: although he only attempted 35 threes in the Big 12, Gibbs made 37.1% of those shots.
Myles Davis (Xavier): If Christon and Stainbrook are both covered on the drive and the roll, one potential outlet for Christon will be Myles Davis. The redshirt freshman entered college with a reputation as a shooter and has reportedly worked on his shot and his conditioning last season, giving coach Chris Mack the option to utilize a three-guard lineup (with Dee Davis) in 2014. Despite the presence of Brad Redford, Xavier was not proficient from deep; Redford, whose eligibility has since expired, was the only Musketeer to attempt more than 100 threes, and though Davis showed improved range (his percentage — 37% — jumped significantly over the course of two seasons), the team rarely relied on three-pointers. That could change with Davis’ arrival.
Derrick Wilson (Marquette): Marquette would be the runaway preseason top pick in the Big East absent a glaring unknown at the point guard spot. Junior Cadougan wasn’t perfect — an offensive rating of 96.1 and a penchant for turnovers aren’t ideal for a team’s starting point — but the departed Cadougan possessed an innate understanding of Buzz Wiliams’ offense. Williams is loathe to play freshmen immediately, so even though the Golden Eagles have a top-ranking group of frosh, including guard Duane Wilson, the task of replacing Cadougan will fall to Derrick Wilson. Wilson’s sample size is small — he barely played during his first two seasons at MU — but if he can continue to limit turnovers (an assist rate of just 3% during Big East and postseason play), Williams will likely turn to Wilson to direct MU’s interior-heavy attack — nearly 30% of the squad’s offense in 2013 came as a result of paint touches.
D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera (Georgetown): Expect the role of D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera, a sophomore guard, to expand greatly since coach John Thompson III needs to find another Hoya to pair with Markel Starks. Smith-Rivera thrived as an additional option last year, serving as highly efficient alternative when defenses focused on Starks or Otto Porter, but without Porter or Greg Whittington, a forward who tore his ACL this offseason and could likely miss the entire season, Smith-Rivera continued evolution as a scorer is imperative. As evidenced by his percentage of field goals assisted at the rim — 56% — Smith-Rivera is capable of creating his own offense, and there could be more set plays involving Smith-Rivera coming off screens or using a pick to either shoot from deep (34%), drive to the bucket, or put an onus on defenders to foul. One indication Smith-Rivera is ready for the extra touches was Georgetown’s mid-February win over DePaul, a game where Porter only played 20 minutes and the 6’5″ Smith-Rivera scored 33 points in an offensively dominant display.
Kris Dunn (Providence): Vincent Council was arguably the most underrated point guard in the BCS conference ranks last season. If the Friars are indeed this season’s emerging contender (as most have pegged Ed Cooley’s team), sophomore Kris Dunn has to undergo a tremendous leap in his development. Though Dunn struggled with turnovers, an invitation to the trials for the U19 World Championship Team might serve to boost the guard’s performance (and confidence). Dunn did record 41 assists in conference play and his now seasoned ability to find Friars the moment they shake free from their defender could raise last season’s mundane offensive efficiency rating. The team’s core — Kadeem Batts, Bryce Cotton, and LaDontae Henton — were reliant on Council to find the trio in scoring position, a duty Dunn must quickly master. An intriguing aspect of Dunn’s game, and one worth watching, is his rebounding — at 6’3″, Dunn has an advantage on the interior, and since Cotton typically bombs away from the perimeter, Dunn is free to troll for rebounds — roughly 10% of his possessions ended with an second chance opportunity — and not worry about preventing a fast-break.
Will Artino (Creighton): The big has so far spent his time in Omaha camped on the interior, grabbing a copious amount of rebounds in his very limited minutes, but the departure of Gregory Echenique means an expanded role for Will Artino. He’ll still have to crash the glass — coach Greg McDermott has said his lineup choices will largely depend on how the Bluejays rebound, and Artino, who sported offensive and defensive rebounding percentages that hovered around 20% last season, will likely be a focal point in those lineups — but Artino’s interior defense and pick-setting will be crucial for the squad. Other than Artino, Doug McDermott is the only returning Bluejay who is taller than 6’8″.
Kameron Woods (Butler): The offseason injury to Roosevelt Jones forces new coach Brandon Miller to depend on other Bulldogs to carry Jones’ expected offensive load, and Woods, a 6’8″ junior, is primed to receive more touches. Entering a college-level strength and conditioning program has greatly helped the big; while his percentage of minutes played hasn’t changed much over the course of Woods’ two seasons, there have been drastic jumps in both his offensive rating (105.2) and two-point field goal percentage (55.8%). Woods is much more confident catching the ball in the paint and finishing — he scored more than one point per offensive rebound and pick and roll possession last season — and shied away from taking ill-advised threes.
Matt Giles is a reporter for New York Magazine and has contributed to College Basketball Prospectus 2012-13, ESPN the Magazine, ESPN Insider, the New York Times, BuzzFeed, and Salon. You can follow Matt on Twitter @HudsonGiles.
Top Big East Non-Conference Games in 2013-14
Ah, the joys of realignment. Creighton’s addition to the Big East means a potential match-up between the Bluejays and Marquette in the Wooden Legacy final. Villanova already plays Xavier twice during conference play but could tip off against Chris Mack’s squad in the Battle 4 Atlantis. And since NYC taxis still feature advertisements proclaiming the Orange as “New York’s College Team,” it feels weird to include Syracuse as a non-conference foe of both the Wildcats and St. John’s.
Losing Pittsburgh, Louisville, Syracuse, and Notre Dame dimmed the Big East’s luster, so the importance of a challenging non-conference slate has been enhanced this season. Creighton and Marquette have several high-profile games on the schedule, and Georgetown will play the potential top team in both the Pac-12 (Oregon) and Big 12 (Kansas). Some Big East squads, though, scheduled as though the conference was still the nation’s toughest, and could suffer if they stumble.
Neutral site tournaments
Creighton in the Wooden Legacy, November 28-December 1: Creighton starts off with Arizona State, and should the Bluejays contain Jahii Carson, the squad faces a loaded field that includes Marquette, San Diego State, George Washington, Miami, and Charleston. A good primer for coach Greg McDermott’s squad.
Georgetown in the Puerto Rico Tip Off, November 21-24: Georgetown is on the wrong side of the tournament. Northeastern, a top team in CAA, is an interesting opening round tilt, but the other two teams — Charlotte and Kansas State — are not expected to make much noise in their respective conferences. If the Hoyas can advance to the final, their chances improve for a marquis game — either Michigan or VCU should roll through that bracket to the championship.
Villanova and Xavier in Battle 4 Atlantis, November 28-30: When this tournament was announced, the attending teams seemed much stronger, but as the season approaches, it appears that demand is less than expected. The resort where the games are being held is offering steep discounts on visits during those three days, and reading between the lines of the recent announcement that North Carolina, Georgetown, UCLA, Florida, Wisconsin, and Butler (among others) will all trek to the Bahamas next year means that the organizers are likely not thrilled with the 2013 participants. A Xavier win against Iowa would certainly boost the Musketeers’ OOC profile, and should Villanova stymie Dunk City, a game against Kansas will help their standing.
Seton Hall in the Coaches vs. Cancer, November 22-23: There aren’t many contests on Seton Hall’s schedule that will protect the team if they falter in Big East play, so the Pirates’ two games in the Coaches vs. Cancer, held at the Barclays Center, are essential. SHU opens with Oklahoma, and coach Kevin Willard has to hope Michigan State defeats Virginia Tech to reach the final — a close game, or a win, against the Spartans would help balance a slate tilted with Mercer, Eastern Washington, and NJIT.
Butler in the Old Spice Classic, November 28-December 1: There are so many unknowns surrounding Butler — what is Brandon Miller’s coaching style? Can a backcourt of Rene Castro, Alex Barlow, and Kellen Dunham run the offense? How much will losing Roosevelt Jones hamstring Butler’s scoring output — that wins against potentially Oklahoma State, Memphis, and LSU would quickly settle those uncertainties.
Notable games
Marquette, Creighton, and DePaul vs. Arizona State (November 25, 28, and December 6, respectively): Herb Sendek’s squad is popular with the Big East as a non-conference opponent — ASU matches up with Creighton again and potentially Marquette in the Wooden Classic. If the Sun Devils justify the hype that has preceded them this preseason and finish amongst the top of the Pac-12, it will be a scheduling bonus for the trio. However, if ASU topples — other than Jahii Carson, ASU has many offensive unknowns — a win becomes questionable and a loss belies a team’s strength.
St. John’s and Villanova vs. Syracuse (December 15 and 28, respectively): It is still strange to list Syracuse as a non-conference match-up. Both Villanova and St. John’s were particularly poor from deep last season, so this contest will be a good test of possible offensive growth for two teams expected to contend.
Marquette vs. Ohio State and New Mexico (November 16 and December 21, respectively): Marquette will likely be the preseason pick as the Big East’s top team, and coach Buzz Williams has scheduled accordingly. In addition to the aforementioned tilt versus Arizona State and the Wooden Classic’s challenging field, MU plays Ohio State, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. MU has significant backcourt question marks — Williams will either go with the little-tested Derrick Wilson or the raw Duane Wilson — and facing off against Aaron Craft could prove challenging, and there is an aura of intrigue surrounding the New Mexico game, specifically in the frontcourt battle of Davante Gardner and Alex Kirk. There will be no shortage of up-and-unders, spins, and baby hooks when each big takes the court.
Georgetown vs. Oregon and Kansas (November 8 and December 21, respectively): Georgetown will have trouble scoring in the paint without Greg Whittington and potentially Josh Smith, and these two non-conference tilts — the game against the Ducks will be played in Seoul! — could illuminate whether Reggie Cameron is primed to step into Otto Porter’s void. Cameron is the classic John Thompson III big: a 6’7″ forward who is comfortable to work off the bounce 15 feet from the basket but has deep range to extend defenses. It will also be interesting to observe how JTIII intends to stop either Andrew Wiggins or Wayne Selden, the nation’s two most exciting freshmen wings.
Providence vs. Kentucky (December 1): Despite the disparity in amount of top 50 recruits, Providence matches up very well with Kentucky. When Ed Cooley first arrived at PC, there were only two Friars who measured 6’9″ or taller, but now in his third season, Cooley can depend on his biggest roster. Tyler Harris and Carson Desrosiers, 6’9″ and 7′, respectively, are both eligible, and both Kris Dunn and Brandon Austin, a freshman who has drawn raves during the offseason for his athleticism and scoring ability, possess significant size advantages. There is a reason PC is steadily gaining momentum as a Big East contender, and this non-conference game could add some volume to those whispers.
Matt Giles is a reporter for New York Magazine and has contributed to College Basketball Prospectus 2012-13, ESPN the Magazine, ESPN Insider, the New York Times, BuzzFeed, and Salon. You can follow Matt on Twitter @HudsonGiles.
Iona finds talent in many forms to reload roster
Iona made the NCAA tournament last season, but now the hard part begins. Tim Cluess returns just four players from last season’s team that lost to BYU in the first round. But he’s reloading with junior college players, transfers and a few freshmen in an effort to keep the momentum going next season.
Continue reading “Iona finds talent in many forms to reload roster”
Top NYC Players: 5-1
This is the final part of this week’s series about the Top 25 players in the New York metro area. Check out 21-25, 16-20, 11-15, 6-10.
5. Mike Moore, Hofstra — The Pride might have struggled in Year 1 A.C.J. (after Charles Jenkins), but Moore did everything he could to try and keep the team afloat. He increased his usage by almost 5% (a large leap) and still maintained strong efficiency while handling the basketball. That led to 19.9 points and 4.6 rebounds per game and a nod to the All-CAA Second Team. Moore scored 30 points three times this season, against Binghamton, Siena and UNC-Wilmington — all Hofstra wins. He also scored 24 points in Hofstra’s upset of Iona. Considering how much the Pride’s offense struggled overall, with three regular contributors with an offensive rating under 90, it was up to Moore and Nathaniel Lester to keep the offense afloat. They did the best possible job they could in a difficult situation. I’m sure Moore knows exactly how being the lead guy feels now.
4. Mike Glover, Iona — It took Glover a little while to get to Iona, but once in New Rochelle he made the most of his time there. The senior from the Bronx scored 18.3 points and grabbed 9 rebounds per game on the way to MAAC First Team honors. While he does owe some of the credit to the man that is at No. 1 on this list, Glover also took some of the pressure off the Iona guards as well. The only consistent interior presence for Iona this season, it was Glover’s job to do as much as possible to keep opponents off the boards and occupied defensively, which opened up looks for the Gaels’ talented shooters. Just watch tape of the second half of the BYU game and you’ll see how Glover really helped make Iona’s offense go. Overall though that final NCAA game is one Glover would probably rather forget. He had some of spectacular games, including 31 points and against Marist and 34 against Saint Joseph’s. He also played well against the MAAC’s best, with double-doubles in both games against Loyola (MD). Glover will play professional basketball somewhere next season, but he’ll remember his time at Iona.
3. Julian Boyd, LIU Brooklyn — The unanimous NEC Player of the Year Boyd was the big presence in the middle for the best team in the conference in 2011-12. He’s the reason that Blackbirds swept Wagner, including 19 points and 15 boards the second time they met. That was one of 14 double-doubles on the season for Body. The most impressive one was a 21-point, 20-board performance against Fairleigh Dickinson. Boyd though also scored 29 points and grabbed 17 rebounds against St. Peter’s and put up 18 points and 12 boards in a key victory at Vermont early in the season. Boyd’s averages of 17.4 points and 9.3 rebounds per game are incredible and deceptive, because he averaged just 27.1 minutes per game thanks to the Blackbirds’ front court depth. Boyd shot 56% from the floor, including 42% from three, and 74% from the line. He was a terror to deal with and no NEC player wanted to be matched up against him on the low block. The craziest thing is that he’s just a redshirt junior and will be back to make some more noise and try to get LIU an NCAA win in 2012-13.
2. Jordan Theodore, Seton Hall — There’s no way to measure heart through statistics, but Theodore certainly had a ton of it. The Pirates’ 6’0″ point guard averaged 16 points and 6.7 assists per game as he tried to will SHU into the postseason. It was an impressive tour de force that ended with him being named to the All-Big East Second Team at the conclusion of the season. Unfortunately, the Pirates couldn’t quite figure out a way to win enough games to pull out an NCAA bid and, even though Theodore scored 17 points on just 11 shots against Louisville, the dreams of making the tournament died at Madison Square Garden. Theodore had seven double-doubles this season, including 26 points and 11 assists in a 21-point win over DePaul in January. In the end he wasn’t able to save his team from losing to Rutgers and the Blue Demons during the final weeks of the season, which probably sealed their NCAA Tournament fate.
1. Scott Machado, Iona — After spending an offseason really dedicating himself to preparing to run the Iona offense during his senior season Machado had a year to remember in New Rochelle. He was the best player on the court almost every night out and often flirted with a triple double. He averaged 13.6 point, 9.9 assists and 4.9 rebounds per game this season. He shot 50% from the field, including 40% from three, and 81% from the free throw line. All of those marks are career highs. As a senior Machado also lowered his turnovers to 3.3 per game. Now the 6’1″ point guard from Queens is looking at the possibility of being picked in the NBA Draft in June. Machado had a triple-double against Marist on February 12 with 10 points, 10 assists and 11 rebounds in an 83-74 home win. He had 11 other double-doubles throughout the year, including a rare 10-rebound, 10-assist performance against William & Mary. Machado also proved he could score, dropping 33 points in a double-overtime win over Saint Joseph’s and 25 points in Iona’s MAAC tournament game against Fairfield. When the Gaels were selected as an at-large for the NCAA tournament Machado performed there as well, scoring 15 points and handing 10 assists as the Gaels fell 78-72. There doesn’t seem to be much more that he could’ve accomplished this season. As the driving force of Tim Cluess’ offense and Iona’s return to the postseason, Machado is my pick for the top player in New York City this season.
Top NYC Players: 15-11
This post is a continuation of the Top 25 NYC Players series. Read up on 21-25 and 16-20 first.
15. Rakim Sanders, Fairfield — Sanders played the first three seasons of his career at Boston College, so when he got the chance to play with the Stags in the MAAC this season it was a sight. The 6’5″ swingman averaged 16.6 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. He could’ve done even better, but he shot just 64% from the free throw line. Sanders played especially well against Iona, dropping 24, 22 and 26 points in three matches against the Gaels, two of which Fairfield won. The Stags lost in the semifinals of the CIT, but Sydney Johnson’s first season there was a success partially because of the consistent offensive support that Sanders was able to provide. It’s worth noting that Sanders had just one terrible game all season, a two-point effort on January 6, 2012 in a 73-60 loss to Siena.
14. Chris Gaston, Fordham — A double-double machine, you could make an argument that Gaston should be higher on this list. What holds him back in my mind is his lack of efficiency on offense. Yes, he scored 17.1 points per game, but he needed 15.2 shots per game to do it. Gaston though was trying to carry a pretty bad Rams offense through much of the season. Being the main focal point of every Atlantic 10 team’s defensive game plan certainly took its toll. Still, he had 16 double-doubles during the season, including 35 points and 16 rebounds in a 67-62 win late in the season over La Salle. The junior forward also had 18 points and 10 boards in Fordham’s win over then #21 Harvard and 23 and 17 in the Rams’ win over Georgia Tech.
13. D’Angelo Harrison, St. John’s — Mike Dunlap seemed to be playing against loaded dice at times this season. The Red Storm’s cast of freshmen were certainly talented, but playing in the Big East with all those new players is never easy. One of the things that made it easier was the play of Harrison. A member of the All-Big East Rookie Team Harrison scored 16.8 points per game for St. John’s while shooting 36% from three and 80% from the free throw line. That’s impressive because the 6’3″ freshman shooting guard from Missouri City, Texas averaged 35.4 minutes per game. Harrison scored 20 plus points 12 times this season, including 25 points on 12 shots in a late December game against Providence. He also scored 21 at Duke, 23 versus Syracuse and 22 in a win over UCLA. Another player later on this list isn’t returning next season, but Harrison gives the Red Storm an excellent building block for the future.
12. Herb Pope, Seton Hall — Banging in the Big East isn’t easy, but Pope still managed to average a double-double this season for the Pirates with 15.1 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. Like Gaston, Pope struggled a bit in his offensive efficiency, but he was even stronger on the boards. Pope did manage to shoot 47% from the field overall and he improved his free throw shooting to 62% during his senior season. For his efforts Pope was named the All-Big East Third Team. SHU will certainly miss his strength around the basket.
11. Shane Gibson, Sacred Heart — Every night the scouting report had in bold at the top “Stop Shane Gibson” as the No. 1 priority in the NEC. No one really managed to do it as the redshirt junior scored 22 points per game with the sick shooting line of 51%/43%/86% (FG%/3PT%/FT%). Those are the numbers of an elite scorer and that’s exactly what Gibson was in 2011-12. The Pioneers’ go-to guy he used 29% of his team’s possessions while on the court and still managed a 112.7 offensive rating. Gibson was named to the NEC First Team thanks to his efforts. Even the presence of Gibson though wasn’t enough to pull out a number of close games for the Pioneers this season. Sacred Heart was 4-8 in games decided by three points or less or in overtime. Then again, if not for Gibson the Pioneers probably wouldn’t have even been in such a spot. He scored 30 or more points four times this season, including a 41-point outburst in a one-point double-overtime loss to Mount St. Mary’s. Gibson was a special player that made every opponent nervous when he had the ball. He’ll be back with a vengeance in 2012-13.
Tomorrow kicks off the Top 10, which includes a number of Ivy Leaguers and a potential NBA Draft pick.
The Bubble Battle
This is obviously a work of satire. Enjoy nonetheless.
Announcer: Welcome to Bubble Battle! It’s the reality show where your favorite college basketball team has a chance to put up or shut up once and for all. During the next 10 weeks these 10 teams will play a round-robin “bubble conference” schedule. We’ll show you the results in just a minute, but first let’s meet the contestants.
<Pans around the room, see a bunch of head coaches sitting in chairs on stage>
Announcer: First up are the Seton Hall Pirates. They’ve got one good win, over Georgetown, but having played in the Big East are sitting right around the bubble. They didn’t even finish .500 in conference, even with the conference tournament, but head coach Kevin Willard thinks his team should be in.
Willard: We challenged ourselves this season. With wins over VCU, Connecticut and Georgetown at least we beat a couple NCAA teams.
Announcer: Next up is Tim Cluess and his Iona Gaels. Iona has the best offense in the field, but were inconsistent during MAAC play and ended up losing in the semifinals to Fairfield, which is playing in the CIT. Their best wins are over Denver, Nevada and Saint Joseph’s — none of which will be in the NCAAs. Still, they feel they’re deserving of an at-large bid.
Cluess: I think we’ve got a lot of talent on this team. We’re better than the eight or ninth team in the Big East. I’m glad we get a chance to prove it.
Announcer: I’m sure you all recognize Northwestern’s Bill Carmody, South Florida’s Stan Heath, N.C. State’s Mark Gottfried and Cal’s Mike Montgomery. They’ve all been here before. <All nod solemnly> Welcome Marshall’s Tom Herrion, Drexel’s Bruiser Flint, and Dayton’s Archie Miller to the show as well. <Applause> I almost forgot, Miami’s Jim Larranaga is over there in the corner. He’s switching sides this season and got lost in the transition. <Larranaga waves and smiles awkwardly>
Announcer: Well, you all know why we’re here, so why don’t we get the games started? As you know, you’ll be playing 10 weeks of round-robin basketball. Those games alone will determine your status on the NCAA bubble. Same games, same courts. No excuses. Anyone have any questions?
Audience Member: A results oriented process? This surely isn’t run by the NCAA?
Announcer: Nope, this tournament isn’t run by the NCAA. It’s actually sponsored by the People For Common Sense (PFCS), who eventually hope to bring you the CBBCL. Unfortunately, this is the best they could do.
Carmody: But the bids count, right? You’re not going to stick my team in the First Four afterwards so everyone can say we’ve never been a part of the NCAA Tournament’s Top 64, right?
Announcer: Of course they count. Now lets get things started. Here’s a montage of all the games. <Long montage plays with basketball games going in the background, tip-ins, buzzer beaters, all sorts of lucky shots, eventually it fades to black>
Announcer: And here are the final standings. Remember the Top 5 teams from this group are expected to make the tournament. Finishing in a tie for first with 12 wins apiece, Cal and Iona. Congratulations to both of you, by winning 2/3 of your games this season you’ve advanced to the NCAA tournament.
Cluess: Always glad to have the opportunity, thanks for supporting smaller programs everywhere.
Announcer: Finishing in third place with 11 wins is Drexel. Congratulations to the Dragons. And winning a three-way tie for fourth place with nine wins are South Florida and Dayton. Congrats to the dancing Bulls and Flyers.
[table=22]
Larranaga: Hey wait, we won nine games too. What about us?
Announcer: You really think any of this is fair? The games were decided by an average of two points. So about 12 points total separates first place Cal from 10th place Northwestern and you think this is fair? It’s like you’d rather a committee figured out what teams get at-large bids.
Carmody: I sort of like the idea of a committee. Process breeds good results.
Willard: Yeah, humans understand the emotions of playing in a college basketball game so much better.
Herrion: Or we could expand to 72 teams?
Carmody: Then we’ll never win.
<Announcer walks off stage>
What does best mean?
What does best mean?
This season more than any other we seem to be stuck in a crossfire from the age old NCAA selection debate about the “good mid-majors” versus “middling majors” and at-large bids. The CAA title game is tonight and the team that loses, either Drexel or VCU, is about to join Iona and Middle Tennessee squarely on the bubble.
The problem is that on that same bubble are teams like Northwestern and Seton Hall. The Wildcats are 18-12 and 8-10 in the Big Ten heading into the conference tournament. The Pirates are in the same boat at 19-11 and 8-10 in the Big East. Iona has 25 wins as do the two teams that will take the court in Richmond tonight. MTSU has 24. Should these teams be rewarded for dominance in a mid-major setting?
It’s tough to decide. The NCAA selection committee is charged with selecting the 37 “best” remaining teams for at-large bids. The criteria of that, as we’ve seen in mock selections, comes from a variety of sources — but too often the RPI. Let’s start there.
RPI for the six teams:
- Iona – 41
- Northwestern – 48
- VCU – 49
- MTSU – 59
- Seton Hall – 60
- Drexel – 63
The best and the worst here are separated by exactly 22 spots. Go further down the chain and the difference of 22 spots in the RPI is the difference between TCU (100) and Oklahoma (122). I dare you to tell me which is better. Obviously it has failed to solve the problem. What about two other metrics stat heads love, LRMC and Ken Pomeroy?
LRMC for the six teams:
- Iona – 32
- MTSU – 41
- VCU – 44
- Drexel – 47
- Seton Hall – 56
- Northwestern – 63
Pomeroy for the six teams:
- Drexel – 41
- VCU – 46
- Northwestern – 49
- Iona – 56
- Seton Hall – 62
- MTSU – 63
Average ranking combining all three:
- Iona – 43
- VCU – 46
- Drexel – 50
- Northwestern – 53
- MTSU – 54
- Seton Hall – 59
It is fascinating to me that the team often called the “best” amongst these six teams, and the safest in bubble predictions, Seton Hall, consistently falls in the fifth place position in these metrics and is sixth in average overall ranking. Why they are they the “safest”? Opportunity.
Best in the college basketball world doesn’t mean, “Expected to go furthest in the tournament,” or “Strongest tempo-free resume.” Instead it means, best “resume,” which is a funny word all in itself. Seton Hall’s resume says that on some nights it can beat really good teams like Georgetown, Connecticut, West Virginia and, coincidentally enough, VCU. Then again, SHU’s resume also includes losses to Villanova, Rutgers, DePaul and fellow bubbler Northwestern.
Similarly, Northwestern has beaten Michigan State. Actually, that’s not similar at all. The Wildcats have one Top 50 RPI win and four painfully close RPI Top 50 losses. That’s why, even with the head-to-head result, Northwestern is behind Seton Hall right now.
But those two teams each had 11 chances to get those Top 50 wins. You know how many chances VCU, Drexel, MTSU and Iona had combined? Seven. They won three of them. (Note: Drexel has a chance to get another Top 50 win tonight if it beats VCU.) Unfortunately, all of those teams also had the opportunity, thanks to leagues they play in, to accumulate some bad losses. The four non-BCS teams have four 201+ RPI losses (two each for Iona and MTSU). Their leagues offered the chance for Iona and MTSU to screw up and unfortunately the Gaels and Blue Raiders fell for it. That thin line meant one screw up in their respective conference tournaments left them in an almost helpless situation.
And they’ll be penalized for it too. Because even though the numbers think that Iona might be the “best,” they didn’t have the opportunity to prove it on the court.
Final Regular Season NYC Power Poll
The regular season is almost over and its time for another power poll! It seems that people are still deciding between Iona and Seton Hall. The Pirates got a convincing victory over Georgetown this week, but the Gaels are also super popular due to their domination of the MAAC. Now if either team could just play with a little bit of consistency. Also, there’s a three-way tie for seventh. Figure that out.