Tag: Quinnipiac

Third seed slips through St. Francis’ fingers

St. Francis (NY) got the chance it needed. It just couldn’t capitalize.

Coming into Saturday the Terriers needed two things to happen in order for them to grab the #3 seed in the NEC conference tournament. First, Robert Morris had to lose to Quinnipiac on EPSNU at 11 a.m. Second, SFC had to win at Fairleigh Dickinson, a team that was 2-26 and 1-16 in the NEC on the season.

Once the Bobcats knocked off the Colonials 73-69 to claim in the #5 seed in the conference tournament the possibility of the Terriers earning the third seed, and avoiding a pretty hot Quinnipiac team in the first round, seemed likely.

Except that in the NEC nothing is ever guaranteed. St. Francis shot 28% from the field and just 4-21 from three (19%) as they fell 45-44 at FDU. It’s a bad loss that leaves Glenn Braica’s club at 15-14 and 12-6 in the NEC on the season.

This loss is going to have long reverberating effects around the NEC. First off, it means that the Pope Center is going to host what should be the best game of the first round of the NEC tournament. SFC vs. Quinnipiac is going to be a great game. Yes, the Terriers just won by eight the last time these two teams played a few weeks ago, but the Bobcats are still one of the most dangerous teams in the league.

I also wonder if this is going to cost a few St. Francis (NY) players postseason awards. Obviously those shouldn’t be the main concern, because making the NCAA tournament is the ultimate reward, but Braica and Jalen Cannon are definitely in hotly contested races for Coach of the Year and Rookie of the Year. This slip could cost them both.

If (and this is a big if) Wagner can get past Central Connecticut today Dan Hurley’s Seahawks would be 16-2 and have a full four-game lead on the Terriers in the standings. I understand that Hurley has a lot of talent on Staten Island, but he also recruited and developed most of it. It just makes the decision that much harder. The other guys in the race here are Monmouth’s King Rice (record won’t be good enough, but he’s done amazing stuff) and LIU’s Jim Ferry (the victim of expectations). It still comes down to Braica vs. Hurley and that four-game edge in the conference standings would be difficult to reconcile.

Then there’s the ROY award. Jalen Cannon is just one of many players that could win the award. Unfortunately the loss to the Knights highlighted his biggest strengths (he had 20 rebounds) and weaknesses (five points). Cannon still needs to work on his offensive game. Most of his points come from tip-ins and dunks in transition. It’s possible that a freshman with a more developed offensive game, like Kyle Vinales of CCSU or Lucky Jones of RMU, might be able to sneak into this spot instead. Ultimately I think Cannon still deserves the award (despite what Ryan said).

Now Robert Morris will wait for the conclusion of two games tonight before it learns its opponent. The Colonials though can wait a little longer with the knowledge that they’ve got the #3 locked up.

Tempo-free NEC: Almost home edition

A couple Senior Nights have been played, most of the conference race has been decided and the NEC is getting wrapped up. As we go into the final week of the regular season what do people need to know about the league? Well, thanks to Ken Pomeroy’s new conference statistics we can take a look at some general trends. For one, like I’ve been saying all season, the NEC is a fast league. The fifth fastest paced league in the country in fact. This is driven by LIU Brooklyn, St. Francis (NY) and Sacred Heart, but it’s also a product of there not being any particularly slow teams in the league. There’s no Wisconsin here. The slowest paced team in the league in conference play has been Robert Morris at 65.8 possessions per game.

What else happens in the NEC? A lot of turnovers, a lot of offensive rebounds and quite a few assists. I think this is why Andrew Chiappazzi likes to say that this is a guard’s league. The teams that have good ones are able to rise above the pack. Of course, talent always rises to the top and that’s why once again LIU is sitting at the top of the league standings (or Jason Brickman). But it’s the team they’ve beaten twice, Wagner, that’s still hanging tough atop the efficiency rankings.

NEC Efficiency Standings:

1. Wagner (14-2) — +0.188
2. LIU Brooklyn (15-1) — +0.123
3. Robert Morris (12-4) — +0.106
4. St. Francis (NY) (12-4) — +0.054
5. Quinnipiac (8-8) — +0.052
6. Central Connecticut (8-8) — +0.018
7.  Sacred Heart (7-9) — -0.008
8.  Monmouth (8-8) — -0.041
9. Mount St. Mary’s (5-11) — -0.057
10. St. Francis (PA) (5-11) — -0.065
11. Fairleigh Dickinson (1-15) — -0.185
12. Bryant (1-15) — -0.207

Superlatives:

Best Offense: LIU at 1.13 points per possession
Best Defense: Wagner at 0.89 points allowed per possession
Worst Offense: Fairleigh Dickinson at 0.83 points per possession
Worst Defense: Bryant at 1.12 points allowed per possession
Luckiest: LIU at 2.4 wins above expected
Unluckiest: Quinnipiac at 2.3 wins below expected
Highest Variance: Quinnipiac
Lowest Variance: LIU

I think those last two things are related. (And are important moving forward!)

Three teams have significantly outplayed their pythagorean records: LIU, Monmouth and St. Francis (NY). All three of those teams have won a number of close games in conference this season and I think their coaches have a lot to do with it. On Twitter there’s been a lot of discussion lately about who should be the NEC coach of the year. I think in any other season King Rice would actually have a great argument, but it should come down to Dan Hurley and Glenn Braica. I think the fact that the Terriers have played so well in close conference games is a mark in favor of Braica’s candidacy for the award. It’s worth noting that Quinnipiac is the only NEC that’s “unlucky” by more than a game in conference play. According to Ken Pomeroy the Bobcats are 322nd in luck in the entire nation. That’s a painful way to go through the season.

LIU needs five more minutes to take down Sacred Heart

After Shane Gibson’s three to force overtime LIU Brooklyn could’ve just given up. The Blackbirds had come back from 11 down in the second half only to see their six-point lead with 35 seconds disappear. Instead LIU got even, fast, scoring the first 10 points of overtime to close out a 103-91 victory at the Wellness Center.

“I think the biggest thing was probably experience,” said Michael Culpo about what helped the Blackbirds in overtime. “We went into overtime in the finals last year so we weren’t that rattled coming into overtime. We just knew that we needed to pick it up and play better than them in that five minute segment.”

Culpo hit two threes during the initial flurry in overtime that sealed the game for LIU. That Blackbirds were up 91-81 by the time there was 3:25 remaining in the extra period. LIU’s largest lead of the game came with 36 seconds remaining in OT at 14.

The win gives LIU 20 victories on the season and keeps the Blackbirds one game up on Wagner with three NEC games left to play. Along with Robert Morris’ victory over Bryant it also gives the conference three 20-game winners for the second time in league history.

Things didn’t come easy for the Blackbirds. Jim Ferry shortened his rotation down to just seven players as thanks to the play of center Justin Swidowski, 23 points, and Gibson, 24 points, SHU kept the pressure on all game. The Pioneers also used a 2-3 zone to slow down the game’s tempo for stretches and stay within striking distance.

“I thought Sacred Heart did a good job of trying to control the tempo of this game,” Ferry said.

One of the side effects to the zone was a return to form for Culpo. The senior had been struggling lately, going 5 for 15 over his past four games, but he stepped up and went 6-10 from beyond the arc against SHU and scored 20 points.

“I don’t think anything was any different. My teammates never lose confidence in me,” Culpo said. “They’re always looking for me. As of late I’ve been struggling shooting the ball, but I’ve been in the gym getting extra shots up.”

Jamal Olasewere recorded a double-double again, with 27 points and 11 boards, and Julian Boyd added 20 points and nine boards, but rebounding will be a priority before physical Quinnipiac comes to Brooklyn for Senior Day on Saturday afternoon. The Bobcats are coming in off a 64-56 home loss to St. Francis (NY) on Thursday night.

“I’m just expecting a physical, intense game like every LIU-Quinnipiac game has been for the past four years,” Ferry said. “They’re all tough, grind-it-out games. I think we’re fortunate we’re at home. We’re going to have to play better than we played tonight to win that game.”

Tempo-free NEC: Ready for the tournament?

Is it time for the NEC conference tournament already? After six sweeps during rivalry week the playoff picture has become awfully clear. I’d like to recommend that you check out Ryan Peters’ breakdown of the current league standings and what teams have left. I’ve also got the tempo-free standings and final projected conference records according to the 10,000 sims, which are much less random now.

Continue reading “Tempo-free NEC: Ready for the tournament?” →

NEC trends to watch

With NEC rivalry week kicking into high gear there are a number of teams moving in different directions. LIU Brooklyn got a key win last night over St. Francis (NY) and it was pretty typical for the Blackbirds. They played decent enough defense that their excellent offense was able to control the game. But there are a lot of NEC teams moving in different directions. Let’s take a look at trends for Quinnipiac, Central Connecticut and Robert Morris and see the good and the bad.

Continue reading “NEC trends to watch” →

Tempo-free NEC: The value of consistency

In basketball sometimes it’s hard to tell which teams are the good ones. A bad shooting night, a couple missed defensive stops and a win turns into a loss. Teams that are consistent overcome those fluky moments and make the best of their opportunities. Being consistently good means that even on your worst night you’re going to be tough to beat.

Continue reading “Tempo-free NEC: The value of consistency” →

Assist Tracker: Dec. 22

The Northwestern – Creighton game provided plenty of fireworks and also a bunch of notable assist efforts. First I’d recommend reading this great piece by Patrick Marshall. He used some stats I collected about Doug McDermott and Grant Gibbs and ran with it using his insights from watching the Bluejays play all season. It’s really interesting stuff.

Grant Gibbs (G, Creighton) — In keeping with the theme of Marshall’s piece five of Gibbs’ 12 assists in Creighton’s 87-79 win over Northwestern were to Doug McDermott. Gibbs’ assists were mostly for threes (7), but also included two jumpers and three layups. McDermott finished the game with 27 points on 10-14 shooting from the field. Overall nine of 10 baskets by McDermott on Thursday were assisted by a teammate.

Antoine Young (G, Creighton) — That’s because Young added three more (the final one was by Ethan Wragge). Overall Young had seven assists with a relatively even breakdown between four layups and three threes. Creighton had 26 assists on 30 baskets (86.7%). The Bluejays came in having an assist on 66.3% of their baskets, 10th in the country.

Dave Johnson (G, Quinnipiac) — Johnson had 10 assists as Quinnipiac defeated Niagara 85-81. Six of the 10 assists went to Ike Azotam who went 13-18 overall and scored 32 points. Six of Johnson’s assists went for layups, three for threes and one dunk. Johnson, a junior from Jackson, NJ, also scored 13 points. He came in averaging 2.9 assists per game, so this was a bit of a surprise.

Zac Swansey (G, Tennessee Tech) — Swansey really spread his 10 assists around in the Golden Eagles’ 81-68 win over Kennesaw State. Jud Dillard got three assists and scored 16 points. Liam McMorrow also got three and scored 15 points. TTU’s leading scorer, Kevin Murphy, had 21 points, but got just one assist from Swansey in the game.

Michael Bizoukas (G, Missouri State) — Even though Missouri State fell in overtime to West Virginia 70-68, Bizoukas continues to thrive with the Bears. He had 10 assists against Mountaineers. Five of them went to Kyle Weems and another four were to Caleb Patterson. Bizoukas is getting help from his teammates as seven of his assists were either on threes (4) or jumpers (3) – though to be fair three were also on dunks.

Aaron Craft (G, Ohio State) — Usually it is Craft’s defense and not his offense that’s making headlines, but in Ohio State’s 69-40 win over Miami (OH) he had nine assists and just one was to Jared Sullinger. Instead it was William Buford that benefitted the most from Craft’s passing with six of his eight baskets coming off assists from the sophomore. Buford led the Buckeyes with 18 points. Overall Craft had assists on five jumpers, three layups and one three. It’s also worth noting that the box score gives Craft for eight assists, but the play-by-play says the total was nine.

John Shurna (F, Northwestern) — Northwestern’s loss was disappointing for the Wildcats and one of the reasons is that Shurna didn’t really show up. He went 6-14 from the field and scored 18 points while mostly being a non-factor in the outcome. It’s worth noting though that Shurna did have nine rebounds and six assists. Those six assists were evenly distributed with two each to Davide Curletti, Luka Mirkovic and Drew Crawford. That means Shurna contributed to both of Mirkovic’s two baskets – another problem for the Wildcats – and two of Curletti’s four. Overall Shurna assisted on three layups, two jumpers and one three.

Two big names that didn’t do much? Junior Cadougan had just one assist in Marquette’s win over Milwaukee. He took on more of a scoring role against the Panthers, leading the team with 15 points. Shabazz Napier had five assists in Connecticut’s close win over Fairfield. Only four of them are in the ESPN play-by-play, one is a dunk by Andre Drummond.