Several college basketball analysts recently released preseason projections for the upcoming season. How well do these models forecast the final conference standings? Here are some guidelines based on recent history: Continue reading “Three Things To Know About Preseason Projections”
Over the past few years, the quantity and sophistication of preseason college basketball projections have exploded. Ken Pomeroy has been publishing projections since 2010, while Dan Hanner took his lineup-based model to SI.com this year. At a conference level, you can find projections based on anything from straightforward regressions to player-by-player analysis. Continue reading “How Accurate Are Preseason Projections?”
Ken Pomeroy posted his preseason predictions today on his website. The conclusions are a little surprising in some leagues, especially the NEC. Let’s take a quick look at seven conferences.
As you know if you’re even a somewhat regular reader, I’ve been playing around with player similarity scores this summer. Well, Ken Pomeroy of course put his own up. They use similar theories to what I’ve been doing, but account for team strength and some other factors.
I took some time to skim through Hofstra and Charles Jenkins seems horribly underrated by his senior year comparisons, though Norris Cole does show up in his junior year. If David Imes follows a growth track similar to Darnell Dialls I think Hofstra fans will be content. Anyways, go waste some time and check it out. Obviously it has given me some ideas. Hopefully I can knock a few out!
Not all numbers are created equal. While there are a number of widely accepted methods of figuring out which teams are the best in college basketball, not even they completely agree. Statisticians like Ken Pomeroy and Ken Massey lead the way, but the College Basketball Rankings Comparison page lists 42 different ones.
Some are tempo-free, others are based on human intuition. They’re all some sort of ranking of the 345 teams in Division I college basketball (or some subset of that group). Good luck figuring out which one is right.
Continue reading “Ratings systems didn’t understand Long Island”
Have you always wondered what makes a coach tick? How his scheme translates into tempo-free numbers? Well, now you can figure it out with one click of the mouse. Ken Pomeroy’s coaching resumes are the hot new thing in tempo-free college basketball.
Click on a profile and learn a lot about a coach. (Well at least the past 10 seasons of their career when they were a head coach.) Observations about each school’s head men coming up.
Stats guru Ken Pomeroy started his own statistical award in an attempt to sort out all the noise surrounding the national Player of the Year debate. His new award is the kPOY and it was given to Jared Sullinger this morning. Two New York City players were honored as well. Iona’s Michael Glover won the conference kPOY award in the MAAC and Long Island’s Jamal Olasewere captured the NEC version.
I was a little surprised that Hofstra’s Charles Jenkins was unable to capture the award in the CAA. My guess is that the Pride’s lower standings in the team rankings hurt Jenkins enough that his advantage in Offensive Rating (123.5 vs. 114.0) and Usage Rate (28.4% vs. 23.7%) were offset by the fact that George Mason finished 28th and Hofstra finished 135th.
NYC Buckets Archive 