Preview: Mid-major power Ohio visits Robert Morris

Tonight, the Robert Morris Colonials take on the Ohio Bobcats, who captured the audience’s attention last season by making it into the Sweet 16 of NCAA tourney. D.J. Cooper and company were finally bounced out by the Tar Heels, in overtime no less, so it was a magical season for the defending Mid-American champions. Now, Ohio has a new coach, but returns their top eight players in terms of efficiency rating. This may be, check that, this is the best away opponent any NEC program will face this season (Ken Pomeroy has Ohio rated #30 in the nation). I’m fully aware of the Colonials strong non-conference home record, but an upset here would be a fantastic, #15 seed resume building victory, should Andy Toole’s squad pull it off.

It won’t be easy. Ohio is off to a wonderful start this season, having already beaten up on several mid-major programs in order to compile an impressive 6-0 record. The real test, at least to the major media, will occur four days from today, when Ohio travels to Tennessee to square off against the slumping Memphis Tigers.

Before then, however, Ohio will need to defeat a Robert Morris that handed the Bobcats their only home loss last season. For the special occasion, I asked Hustle Belt writer Matt Sussman for his thoughts on Ohio. He does a good job blogging for SB Nation and an even better job on Twitter @suss2hyphens. If you enjoy the blending of sports and humor, with a dash of sarcasm, Matt is someone who should occupy your timeline. And of course, check out the coverage at Colonials Corner for the latest on Robert Morris basketball.

Four Key Questions:

Typically, teams will struggle at least a little when a new coach is brought in. LIU and Wagner, who are both veteran squads that enjoyed success last season, have struggled since Jim Ferry and Dan Hurley left to take jobs in the A10. What has Jim Christian done to make sure the transition has gone so smoothly in the early going?

MS: If it’s not broke, don’t fix it? I can’t speak for the other two teams, but my understanding is those are their first DI head coaching jobs. Christian has done this before, and he also previously coached in the MAC at Kent State, a very similar program.

What’s the best way to attack this team defensively in your opinion? With a potent backcourt led by D.J. Cooper, are there any defensive schemes that have been able to slow down this offensively efficient team in the past?

MS: You can’t really focus on any one guy, and there’s no magic bullet here, but it’s like any other superior team: try to force them to shoot jumpers. You saw this a little bit against them last year, but once in a while DJ Cooper goes into heroball mode, and if it works they’re unbeatable, but — and this happened against UNC in the Sweet 16 — he can’t buy a basket yet will keep trying. Basically keep Cooper out of the lane and make sure that Reggie Keely isn’t getting any easy put-back points.

The past two seasons, Ohio has been fantastic in forcing turnovers. Given their high steal rates, I’d assume this is a team that will pressure you in the full court? Talk a little about their ability to defend and the best way to attack it.

MS: Yes, they’ll do some pressure off the inbounds. But I don’t believe it to be the primary reason they create turnovers so well. It’s just everybody is so darn good at defending, starting with Cooper on the perimeter. Jon Smith is their best defender down low. Again, the key against them is to play smart. Create your own turnovers and you can get some transition points. And really try to stay patient and attack them inside: teams are not scoring well against them but they are making 48 percent of their 2-pointers.

Ohio is off to their best start since 1969 and their average margin of victory is better than 20 points/game so far, but is there an Achilles Heel with this team? Are their one or two weaknesses that coach Christian should be concerned about moving forward?

MS: Clearly they’re not flawless. They’re taking excellent shots and playing tough defense. But they are prone to turnovers (20 percent TO rate) and their rebounding numbers are some of the lowest in the country. The Bobcats are going to lose some games — more than a handful, I’d reckon — and these reasons could be their downfalls.

Three Key Stats:

Robert Morris’ defense – This goes without saying, but Ohio is shooting the basketball at rediculously efficient clips at the moment; they’re in the top 10 nationally in effective field goal percentage at 57.8%. So far, Robert Morris isn’t defending well, as they find themselves in the bottom quarter of the country in two-point and three-point defense. After their atrocious start against Rider and Lehigh though, the defense has been better of late. They’ll certainly need to play defend at a high level tonight.
Attacking the Glass – As Matt mentioned above, the Bobcats aren’t the greatest team rebounding, but then again, when you’re making a high percentage of your shots, it isn’t terribly prudent to possess spendid rebounding rates. If Robert Morris can force Ohio to take contested jump shots, then Mike McFadden, Lucky Jones, and company need to clean off the glass.
Getting to the Tin – Ohio may turnover opponents at a fantastic rate (#1 nationally at 32.9% TO rate), but they are prone to fouling. And wouldn’t you know, Robert Morris thrives at getting to the line! If the Colonials can drive the lane with success, then they’ll have a fighting chance tonight. In the two games Velton Jones had at least ten free throw attempts, his Colonials won both games. Ten free throws should be the magic number for the senior point guard.

One Pomeroy Prediction: Ohio is a moderate road favorite with a 71% chance to pull off the victory, 68-62.

Ryan Peters covers Northeast Conference men’s basketball for Big Apple Buckets and Pioneer Pride. You can follow Ryan on Twitter @pioneer_pride

NEC Team Capsules: Robert Morris Colonials

Head Coach: Andy Toole, 3rd year (44-25)
Last Season: 26-11 (13-5 NEC), lost in the NEC finals to LIU, 90-73
NEC Preseason Coach’s Poll: 2nd out of 12 teams
State of Program: Win-now mode
Key Players Lost: Lawrence Bridges (3.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 57.6% FG%)
Incoming Players: Karvel Anderson (G), Vaughn Morgan (PF), Stephan Hawkins (PF)
Previous Posts: Robert Morris Recruiting Recap, RMU Prepares for Life After Velton Jones

Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Velton Jones (16.0 PPG, 2.8 APG, 4.8 APG, 1.8 SPG, 1.7 A/TO)
G: Coron Williams (10.8 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 41.0% 3PT%, 82.0% FT%)
F: Lucky Jones (8.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.2 SPG)
F: Vaughn Morgan (played junior college)
F: Mike McFadden (8.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 53.9% FG%)

Key Reserves: Russell Johnson (F), Karvel Anderson (G), Anthony Myers (PG), Stephan Hawkins (PF), Keith Armstrong (F)

Major Storylines:

Getting Back to the Dance – Since Andy Toole has inherited this team, the Colonials have won 44 games and made two appearances in the NEC title game, in as many years. Not too shabby. It’s been one game, however, that has Robert Morris fans bitterly looking back at both seasons. Can the Colonials, who return their top 7 most efficient players and bring in 3 capable newcomers, finally get over the LIU hump? Winning the regular season title is the first step, since it would ensure home court advantage. This year it’s NCAA tournament or bust for Robert Morris.
Strong Frontcourt Play – Overall, it’s one of the deepest rosters in the league, although that depth in the frontcourt will be tested early with the season-ending ACL tear of senior Lijah Thompson. Now, junior college transfer Vaughn Morgan slots into the starter role, and 6’9″ freshman Stephan Hawkins and sophomore Keith Armstrong will be leaned upon a little more. Along with Mike McFadden, can this group play well enough so Toole has the option to play big (with Morgan/Hawkins at power forward) or small (with Lucky Jones at power forward)? The emergence of the frontcourt newcomers could be critical in giving Toole some important lineup flexibility late in the season.
Consistency Defending the Ball – One look at the defensive numbers indicate a stout Colonial defense. At 0.95 points allowed per possession last season, only Wagner was better in that regard. The problem is Robert Morris needs to defend more consistently. There were several periods last season where Toole’s squad would simply suffer from defensive lapses. The team can get away with the inconsistency against the bottom half of the league, but if they want to climb past LIU for the first time in three seasons, they’ll have to string it together for 40 minutes.

Lineup Analysis: As mentioned earlier, it’s been a fantastic run for a Colonials team ready to win now. Senior leader Velton Jones has one more season of eligibility and will look to return to the Big Dance for the second time in his career. The underrated Anthony Myers backs him up at the point, although both Jones and Myers can play on the floor together at certain points. Coron Williams and transfer Karvel Anderson will likely split duties at the “2”. Both are money behind the arch and will look to improve Robert Morris’ three-point shooting from a year ago. Sophomore Lucky Jones, coming off a freshman season where he finished in the top 15 in rebounding and steal rate, is primed for a breakout year, given his outside shot improves. Senior Russell Johnson will also play meaningful minutes at forward. The frontcourt is rather unproven, with Vaughn Morgan and Stephan Hawkins expected to replace Lawrence Bridge’s minutes. The 6’8″ Mike McFadden will anchor the “5”, and needs to improve his production. Overall, it’s a roster that’s still 9-10 deep, even without the services of Lijah Thompson. Most of the players should average 18-30 per game in an attempt to keep everyone fresh late in the season.

Coach’s Quotes:

“He’s getting better each day and I think for him that’s the most important thing. I think he has to change his mindset a little bit in how hard he needs to play and how detailed he has to be. Because of his athletic ability, he’s been able to get by on his athletic ability, yet you’re not going to get much more athletic than Jamal Olasewere. So you better figure out if you’re going to match up with him, you better figure out how to play the game as well. He’s getting better, with Lijah [Thompson] out the spotlight shines on him a little bit brighter.”
– Toole on the development of Vaughn Morgan

“It’s definitely a huge advantage to host the [NEC title game]. It’s a huge advantage to have experience in that tournament. I think sometimes that’s why we’ve been able to get to four straight championship games, but you still have to perform in that game. And LIU has performed well the last two years.”
– Toole, on how important home court advantage and experience is when competing in the NEC tournament

Predictions:

Ryan – It’s no secret I’m on the Robert Morris bandwagon heading into Toole’s third season. Ken Pomeroy and Dan Hanner project the Colonials as the NEC champions too. Ultimately, I feel the LIU two game suspension will be just enough to give Robert Morris the regular season title. If that happens, everything goes through Moon Township, and I love their chances if that’s the case.

John – Robert Morris has a great young coach, a veteran leader in Velton Jones and all the pieces you want in a mid-major program on the rise. So why are they picked second? The Colonials can’t finish. It’ll be close. RMU might even win the regular season, but it’s wait till next year one more time in terms of an NCAA berth.

Previous NEC Team Capsules:
October 24: St. Francis (PA) Red Flash
October 25: Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
October 26: Bryant Bulldogs
October 29: Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers
October 30: Central Connecticut Blue Devils
October 31: Monmouth Hawks
November 1: Sacred Heart Pioneers
November 2: St. Francis (NY) Terriers
November 5: Quinnipiac Bobcats
November 6: Wagner Seahawks

Robert Morris preparing for life after Velton Jones

Walk up to any college basketball fan with a limited knowledge of the Northeast Conference and ask him or her to tell you something about Robert Morris basketball. What would their answer be?

For starters, they may recall the Colonial’s near-upset over the two-seeded Villanova Wildcats in the 2010 NCAA tournament. Robert Morris was a whisker away from giving the NEC their first ever NCAA tournament win (excluding play-in games).

The second thing the fan may recall about Robert Morris? None other than senior leader and All-NEC first teamer Velton Jones.

Because of his leadership, passion, and undeniable motor on the hardwood, Jones is revered by most college basketball enthusiasts. More than likely, Jones is the most well-known active player in the NEC, even though fellow stars Julian Boyd and Shane Gibson possess better overall statistics, and in Boyd’s case, more accolades. Still, the fiery Philly native deserves the publicity he receives, because he’s the heart and soul of a team that preaches toughness, defense, and chemistry. Everyone is fully aware of the value Jones brings to Robert Morris, both on and off the court.

With Jones set to graduate next May, one would assume Robert Morris would probably take a step back. How could they make up for the departure of their senior leader without falling out of contention?

Meet Colonial backup point guard Anthony Myers. A junior this season, Myers may be the best second-string player in the conference. Last season, he averaged 23 minutes per game and was in the NEC top 10 in assist rate (26.6%), steal rate (3.3%) and three-point percentage (40.7%). A closer look at Myers’ sophomore stats reveals how underrated he is, especially when you compare his numbers to Jones’ statistics his sophomore season:

Velton Jones, 2010-11: 101.8 ORtg*, 45% EFG, 29.8% assist rate, 3.2% steal rate, 25.7% usage rate
Anthony Myers, 2011-12: 111.5 ORtg, 51% EFG, 26.6% assist rate, 3.3% steal, 15.8% usage rate
*Offensive rating – estimates the number of points produced per 100 possessions

The numbers show us that Myers and Jones are closer than you think, at least in terms of value on the floor. With a higher usage rate and the ability to get to the free throw line, it’s expected Jones will handle the ball a majority of the time this season, but head coach Andy Toole enjoys having two strong point guards on the roster. It’s certainly a nice luxury to have, especially when they’re on the floor at the same time.

“With [Jones and Myers] being playmakers on the floor together, I think sometimes that helps our offensive flow,” said Toole. “And I would expect those guys will be on the floor together again this year…and especially coming down the stretch ending games. They are really aggressive, strong ball handlers, they are both physical and solid defenders who understand what we are trying to do.”

This offseason, Myers has been working hard to improve various facets of his game, in particular his shot and his aggression. Sometimes last season, the reserved guard might have been a touch too passive when opportunities arose.

“I’m looking forward to and Anthony is looking forward to being more aggressive and making more plays,” said Toole. “I want him to be more aggressive getting the ball down the floor. I want him more aggressive in our motion offense. I want him to be more aggressive all around.”

Given the talent of Myers, who once had verbally committed to Fordham, it’s safe to expect an improvement in his already impressive numbers. Myers’ game and statistics, however, are overlooked in large part because of the player Myers is behind on the roster.

When asked if he’s comfortable handing the starting point guard reins over to Myers once Jones graduates, Toole didn’t hesitate in his response. “There’s no doubt. [Anthony] has done everything we’ve ever asked of him. The biggest challenge for him that following year – and it’s very premature for me to be talking about it now – is the vocal aspect of things. He provides a great example, he shows a great leadership in his work ethic and in his understanding of what we’re doing. I just think he’s just has to get a little more vocal and a little more energetic in practice as well as in games, to give guys something to feed off of.”

Toole then further explained why Velton is … well Velton. “That’s one of the things with Velton that makes him unique a little bit, is his demeanor and his toughness that he gives to the rest of his teammates. Our team has great confidence in him – as they do for [Anthony] – but I think [Anthony] has to do a little more to have everybody understand that he’s going to be the one leading the charge next year.”

While Myers is running the team his senior season, Robert Morris will have freshmen Britton Lee and Kavon Stewart on the roster, backing Myers up. Both players are considered excellent gets for Robert Morris, yet NCAA rules prevent Toole from commenting on recruits who haven’t signed a National Letter of Intent.

Add it all up, and Robert Morris is set up nicely once the great Velton Jones graduates. The Colonials are obviously in win-now mode, but with Myers leading the charge next season, and a couple of talented freshmen behind him, it may be premature to knock Robert Morris down a level for the 2013-14 season. If Myers can continue to progress – and I expect he will – perhaps he will get some of the recognition he deserves, but only once Jones leaves campus for good.

Ryan Peters covers Northeast Conference college basketball for Big Apple Buckets and Pioneer Pride. You can follow Ryan on Twitter @pioneer_pride

Robert Morris reloads for another shot at the Big Dance

Robert Morris Colonials: 26-11 (13-5 NEC), Lost in NEC Finals to LIU-Brooklyn, 90-73

Players Lost:
G Brandon Herman (transfer) – 1.8 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 0.7 apg
F Lawrence Bridges – 3.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.0 apg
SG Karon Abraham (dismissed from team) – Did not play

Incoming Players:
Karvel Anderson, 6’2″ G – Glen Oaks CC (MI)
Vaughn Morgan, 6’6″ F – Southwestern Christian College (TX)
Stephan Hawkins, 6’9″ PF – Bowman Academy (IN)
Jervon Pressley, 6’7″ PF – Towson University (MD)

For the fourth straight March, the Robert Morris Colonials found themselves in the NEC Championship game with an opportunity to clinch an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament. For the 2nd consecutive time, however, they fell victim to the offensively gifted LIU Blackbirds – this time by succumbing to a tempo more suited for Julian Boyd, Jason Brickman and company.

The defeat exposed some weaknesses of Robert Morris, most notably their inconsistent outside shooting and somewhat thin frontcourt. It was a difficult setback, but head coach Andy Toole and his staff regrouped to sign a splendid recruiting class addressing their most glaring needs.

The first recruit of note is 6-foot-2 combo guard Karvel Anderson. Anderson is a gifted scorer who comes from a difficult background, yet despite his troubles, he persevered to finally earn a Division I scholarship. This past season at Glen Oaks, Anderson averaged more than 24 ppg, even though he played with a pin in his surgically repaired wrist all season. His natural ability to score, however, wasn’t the most impressive thing about his game.

“One of the things I really like about Karvel is his efficiency,” Toole explained. “The thing that jumps out at you is his scoring average, but what I really liked was the fact he shot 46% from the floor and 43% from three.”

Anderson should play significant minutes right away, mainly as a “2” who can stretch the defense with his range.

“We needed to bring in another outside shooter, someone else that could really knock it down from the parameter to complement Coron (Williams),” Toole said. “We hope that Karvel pushes Coron and we hope they compete for minutes, because competition obviously gets the best out of everybody.”

With their need for a long-range shooter filled, Robert Morris turned their attention to acquiring some frontcourt depth. Junior college transfer Vaughn Morgan and true freshman Stephan Hawkins were signed, and each player has the potential to contribute right away.

The 6-foot-6 Morgan is an exceptional athlete who plays above the rim with his freakish leaping ability (seriously watch that clip and tell me if anyone else in the NEC can do that). Because of his physical gifts, Morgan should reek havoc around the basket at both ends of the floor. He can also knock down the mid-range jumper, something the now graduated Lawrence Bridges couldn’t do. His athleticism is remarkable at the NEC level, but Toole is cautiously optimistic when talking about Morgan’s upside.

“Vaughn is extremely gifted athletically. The learning curve with him will be all of the concepts and some of the teaching points that we’re going to deal with. The sooner he picks those things up, the easier it will be for him to let his athleticism shine through.”

When asked if Morgan is the best athlete he’s ever signed at Robert Morris, Toole added, “From a jumping perspective, yeah. It’s not even close. He’ll have some highlights this year, I’m pretty positive of that.”

The other newcomer competing for time at the “4” will be Hawkins, who held his own at the Pittsburgh Summer Pro-Am while banging bodies with stronger and more experienced big men. According to Toole, Hawkins makes up for his lack of strength with excellent instincts, great length, and a nice 12-to-15 foot jumper to keep defenders honest. He positions himself well around the basket and should serve as yet another valuable piece to the Colonials deep rotation.

The last piece of the recruiting puzzle is Towson transfer Jervon Pressley. Pressley is ineligible this season due to NCAA transfer rules, but a year off will benefit the North Carolina native. He struggled in a difficult situation at Towson, so Pressley will help his cause by practicing with a seasoned and physical frontcourt for a full season. It was only a year ago that Pressley was graded as an 87 by ESPN Recruiting. To put that number in perspective, only Dwaun Anderson, the super recruit heading to Wagner, ranked higher among all 2012 NEC signed recruits.

Coming off a 26 win season, the Colonials return their top 7 players in terms of efficiency rating. Add 3 potential impact newcomers for 2012, another year of development for Lucky Jones, Mike McFadden, and Anthony Myers, and you have the makings of a very deep and talented team. The other teams of the elite tier certainly won’t back down, but Robert Morris has as good a chance as any to capture their 3rd NEC championship in the past 5 years. With senior Velton Jones leading the charge, you can bet he and his Colonials won’t go down easy.

Ryan Peters covers Northeast Conference men’s basketball for Big Apple Buckets and Pioneer Pride. You can follow Ryan on Twitter @pioneer_pride.