It’s the final weekend for most college hoops leagues and there’s still a lot to be determined. I’m going to run down the percentages of some important things happening for the teams from the area still competing for conference positions. I’m include the % chance, determined via the Ken Pomeroy odds of a certain scenario coming true.
Category: Wagner
Machado and Glover near top of Value Add
Scott Machado and Mike Glover of Iona are in the top 60 players in the entire country according to Value Add, a statistic created by John Pudner. You can see the list of the Top 200 on the site there. Interestingly, three NEC players also appear in Value Add, but it’s not who you’d expect. There’s Central Connecticut’s Ken Horton (#27) and then Wagner’s Tyler Murray (#144) and Quinnipiac’s Ike Azotam (#162). Pouring over I’m guessing that a slight adjustment for playing time is why Azotam is on the list and LIU’s Julian Boyd isn’t. It’s also interesting that Murray’s 124.6 offensive rating is enough to make up for his relatively low usage rate (just 17.1%) and put him in the Top 150.
Tempo-free NEC: Almost home edition
A couple Senior Nights have been played, most of the conference race has been decided and the NEC is getting wrapped up. As we go into the final week of the regular season what do people need to know about the league? Well, thanks to Ken Pomeroy’s new conference statistics we can take a look at some general trends. For one, like I’ve been saying all season, the NEC is a fast league. The fifth fastest paced league in the country in fact. This is driven by LIU Brooklyn, St. Francis (NY) and Sacred Heart, but it’s also a product of there not being any particularly slow teams in the league. There’s no Wisconsin here. The slowest paced team in the league in conference play has been Robert Morris at 65.8 possessions per game.
What else happens in the NEC? A lot of turnovers, a lot of offensive rebounds and quite a few assists. I think this is why Andrew Chiappazzi likes to say that this is a guard’s league. The teams that have good ones are able to rise above the pack. Of course, talent always rises to the top and that’s why once again LIU is sitting at the top of the league standings (or Jason Brickman). But it’s the team they’ve beaten twice, Wagner, that’s still hanging tough atop the efficiency rankings.
NEC Efficiency Standings:
1. Wagner (14-2) — +0.188
2. LIU Brooklyn (15-1) — +0.123
3. Robert Morris (12-4) — +0.106
4. St. Francis (NY) (12-4) — +0.054
5. Quinnipiac (8-8) — +0.052
6. Central Connecticut (8-8) — +0.018
7. Sacred Heart (7-9) — -0.008
8. Monmouth (8-8) — -0.041
9. Mount St. Mary’s (5-11) — -0.057
10. St. Francis (PA) (5-11) — -0.065
11. Fairleigh Dickinson (1-15) — -0.185
12. Bryant (1-15) — -0.207
Superlatives:
Best Offense: LIU at 1.13 points per possession
Best Defense: Wagner at 0.89 points allowed per possession
Worst Offense: Fairleigh Dickinson at 0.83 points per possession
Worst Defense: Bryant at 1.12 points allowed per possession
Luckiest: LIU at 2.4 wins above expected
Unluckiest: Quinnipiac at 2.3 wins below expected
Highest Variance: Quinnipiac
Lowest Variance: LIU
I think those last two things are related. (And are important moving forward!)
Three teams have significantly outplayed their pythagorean records: LIU, Monmouth and St. Francis (NY). All three of those teams have won a number of close games in conference this season and I think their coaches have a lot to do with it. On Twitter there’s been a lot of discussion lately about who should be the NEC coach of the year. I think in any other season King Rice would actually have a great argument, but it should come down to Dan Hurley and Glenn Braica. I think the fact that the Terriers have played so well in close conference games is a mark in favor of Braica’s candidacy for the award. It’s worth noting that Quinnipiac is the only NEC that’s “unlucky” by more than a game in conference play. According to Ken Pomeroy the Bobcats are 322nd in luck in the entire nation. That’s a painful way to go through the season.
2012 NIT Bracket from BPI
Here is the second edition of the NIT bracket using Drew Cannon’s BPI. I want to note a few things. Here are auto-bids by teams that you might be wondering where they are:
- Iona (MAAC auto, would’ve been the final at-large according to BPI)
- Akron (MAC auto, would’ve been in NIT)
- Murray State (OVC auto, would’ve been in NIT)
- Oral Roberts (Summit auto, would’ve been in NIT)
- VCU (CAA auto, would’ve been in NIT)
- Davidson (Southern auto, would’ve been in NIT)
- Cleveland St. (Horizon auto, would’ve been in NIT)
- Wagner (NEC auto, would be the 12th team into the NIT)
Final four teams into NCAA via at-large: Northwestern ($), Minnesota, Arizona and Saint Joseph’s
Now that we’ve got that out of the way. Here is the bracket. Note: As I did the last time I preserved the S-curve so there are match ups here that don’t make sense or would be reseeded. What it does mean though is that the ones are the top four teams into the NIT, the twos the next four etc. Hopefully this is informative. I’ll have a fully human authored and seeded bracket on Thursday.
1. Xavier
8. Tennessee
4. Colorado
5. LSU
3. Cincinnati
6. New Mexico State
2. South Dakota State
7. Dayton
1. Wyoming
8. Mercer
4. UCF
5. Oregon
3. Colorado State
6. Stanford
2. Drexel
7. Buffalo
1. Mississippi State
8. Virginia Tech
4. Pittsburgh
5. St. Bonaventure
3. Marshall
6. South Florida
2. La Salle
7. UCLA
1. Northern Iowa
8. Denver
4. Missouri State
5. Arkansas
3. Massachusetts
6. Mississippi
2. Washington
7. Villanova
To be honest. This is a pretty nice and quite reasonable bracket. The first four teams left out are: Montana, Tulsa, Kent State and Duquesne. There are good match ups throughout the bracket and an intriguing potential second regional final between Xavier and Cincinnati. My guess is that a couple of these would get flipped in a true NIT bracket, for instance Arkansas would host Missouri State, South Florida would host Marshall, Stanford would host Colorado State, etc. but it seems like the right teams are getting in. It’s also worth noting that there is an 11-13 Villanova team somewhat safely into the field. It’s crazy, but the Wildcats are sitting right around the NIT bubble.
Fun facts you should know about the NEC
This post may sound like I was smart enough to read the weekly notes from the NEC where Jamal Olasewere was named the co-player of the week. If that’s the case that’s fine because here are some fun tidbits that the conference office figured out the time to share and I thought were pretty awesome. Note: If you think you could’ve written this post it’s probably true. Read the full notes here.
Fun fact #1: This could be just the second time in conference history that the NEC has three 20-game winners. Wagner has 21 victories, LIU Brooklyn and Robert Morris each currently have 19 and seem good bets to get that final one. The last time this happened? 1995-96 when Marist, Mount St. Mary’s and Monmouth all cracked 20 wins. The NEC put two teams in the NIT that season along with an NCAA bid. It’s certainly possible that Wagner, LIU and RMU will all get postseason invitations of some sort (NCAA/NIT/CBI/CIT) when this season is over.
Fun fact #2: Wagner’s 21-4 record is the reverse of its 4-21 record just two years ago. That’s ridiculous. In the past 19 seasons Wagner has won 20 games two other times in 2002-03 (the school’s only NCAA appearance) and 2007-08.
Fun fact #3: Olasewere went 11-11 from the field to earn Battle of Brooklyn MVP honors. His 11-11 from the field tied Luke Apfeld of Vermont for the most made shots without a miss in a game this season. Note: Apfeld was also 1-1 from the free throw line and scored 24 points. Olasewere was just 9-12 from the line. Of course Olasewere also made his 11 shots against St. Francis (NY) whereas Apfeld was playing Towson.
Fun fact #4: Shane Gibson of Sacred Heart currently has the highest per game scoring average in conference play for all NEC players since 1998 at 25.9 points per game. I can only imagine that will probably go up in a shootout against LIU Brooklyn on Thursday, a game I’m excited to be attending. Gibson is using 28.7% of SHU’s possessions (72nd in the country) and has a 113.3 offensive rating (313, but 11th amongst players using at least 28% of their team’s possessions). He’s carrying that offense.
Fun opinion #1 (Technically not a fact): Kyle Vinales of Central Connecticut is the leading scorer amongst NEC freshman and probably the leader for the NEC’s Rookie of the Year award, but I’d take two players – St. Francis (NY)’s Jalen Cannon and Robert Morris’ Lucky Jones – over him.
Oh yeah, NYC NEC still lives as thanks to Wagner’s two wins over Mount St. Mary’s last week the three city schools are now 29-1 against NEC competition. The road gets a little tougher this week as St. Francis has to go to suddenly scorching Quinnipiac and LIU Brooklyn hosts the Bobcats on Saturday.
Tempo-free NEC: Ready for the tournament?
Is it time for the NEC conference tournament already? After six sweeps during rivalry week the playoff picture has become awfully clear. I’d like to recommend that you check out Ryan Peters’ breakdown of the current league standings and what teams have left. I’ve also got the tempo-free standings and final projected conference records according to the 10,000 sims, which are much less random now.
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Tempo-free NEC: The value of consistency
In basketball sometimes it’s hard to tell which teams are the good ones. A bad shooting night, a couple missed defensive stops and a win turns into a loss. Teams that are consistent overcome those fluky moments and make the best of their opportunities. Being consistently good means that even on your worst night you’re going to be tough to beat.
St. Francis (NY) blending into NEC challenger
St. Francis (NY) solidified its position in second place in the NEC with a 73-67 victory over Central Connecticut State on Thursday in Brooklyn Heights as the team continues to get contributions from every place on the court.
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NYC Power Poll: Is there really “power” here?
I think the right decision was made last week when the power poll was narrowed down to 12 teams. To be honest, at this point it’s tough to find 12 teams in the area that are worth ranking. That’s evident in this week’s power poll as 15 teams received votes, but the Top 12 is a pretty set group of teams. There’s an equivalent of a second place vote separating team No. 12 from team No. 13.
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NIT Bracket: February doesn’t mean clarity
Welcome to February. We’re in the thick of conference play, so that means that the NCAA tournament bracket is becoming more clear, right? Wrong. Unbalanced schedules are a death knell to a bracket prognosticator right now. Teams of equal quality can play completely different schedules and ::poof:: no one knows what’s up anymore. Take for instance Northwestern, the reason I started tracking this darn stuff in the first place. Two respectable bubble watch guys, Eamonn Brennan over at ESPN and Andy Glockner at SI don’t even have the Wildcats in their respective watches. Jerry Palm, another respected bracketologist has Northwestern in the NCAA tournament in his latest bracket.
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NYC Buckets Archive 