Using Roland Ratings to Determine Team MVPs

I don’t believe in +/- too much at the collegiate level, but sometimes derivative statistics can provide some interesting jumping off points. One of those is +/- for lineups. Another is Roland Rating. Basically, Roland Rating is the difference between a team’s +/- when a player is on the court and off of it. It’s a way of judging how valuable player is if you’ve got a large enough sample size. Let’s see what it says about each of the NYC teams and who the most valuable players are.

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NIT Bracketology: March 8, 2012

As the major conference tournaments kick into high gear this week there’s a special type of bid stealer on the loose. High-major teams that have so-so records against their peers are hoping for one last shot to prove that they should play in the NIT this season. You see a lot of them at the bottom of the bracket already. UCLA, Pittsburgh, Colorado and LSU all sit somewhere around the cut-line. The Panthers in particular are an interesting case. They’re 17-16 overall after losing to Georgetown in the Big East Tournament, but the Panthers also have 14 losses to Top 100 competitors. I also watched them live on Tuesday and was sort of impressed. Is that enough to play in the NIT? I’m not really sure.

The Pac-12 tournament is just starting up and it should prove, along with the Atlantic 10 tournament, to be one of the tournaments that impacts this NIT bracket the most. UCLA, Colorado, Stanford, Arizona and Oregon have opportunities to play themselves out of the bracket (in both directions) during the next few days. Also, Arkansas, Maryland and New Mexico State all still have an opportunity to improve their resumes. Those three teams are sitting outside of the NIT looking in right now. Of course, more bid thieves could make this a moot point. Three are already hanging out at the bottom of the bracket.

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Why all the NEC’s top coaches could be staying

The NEC championship game hasn’t even been played, but the coaching carousel doesn’t wait for anything. When the Rhode Island Rams decided to part ways with head coach Jim Barron three NEC coaches found themselves thrown into the rumors. Two of those coaches are coaching on Wednesday and all three will hear their names mentioned many more times. It’s possible though that all could stay at their respective institutions.

That sounds weird, because the NEC is a single-bid conference near the bottom of Division I by almost any metric, but all three have lots of reasons to be excited about the future of their respective programs and each has more to do. In turn the league should benefit and continue to rise in 2012-13. Will they all stay? Let’s take a look at each’s unique situation.

Dan Hurley: Destined for big things

When Dan Hurley came to Grymes Hill he was already a high school coaching legend, with a career record of 223-21 at Saint Benedict’s Prep in New Jersey. He has a famous father and brother and was expected to succeed from day one, even as he stepped into a program that had won just five games the year before he took over. Two seasons later the Seahawks lost at home in the semifinals of the NEC Tournament after going 15-3 in conference play. They also beat Pittsburgh, Princeton and Penn in non-conference play. Hurley’s name was being thrown around in Twitter rumors for the URI while the semifinal was still in progress.

There will always be jobs out there for Hurley. He’s got the name, the pedigree and the system to shoot for the biggest of jobs when he decides to leave Staten Island. His defensive system will play anywhere and as he moves up the ladder he’ll just be able to get more and more talent.

That ability to acquire talent is one of the reasons that Hurley shouldn’t leave Wagner after this season. Chris Martin and Tyler Murray both graduate, but the cupboard is far from bare. Former Michigan Mr. Basketball Dwaun Anderson may be eligible next season. He’ll complement Latif Rivers, NEC Defensive Player of the Year Kenneth Ortiz and the developing Naofall Folahan and Mario Moody in the paint. Once again Hurley will have the talent to compete for an NEC title.

Jim Ferry: Building a program

If he wanted to LIU Brooklyn head coach Jim Ferry could’ve left after last season. He accomplished pretty much everything an NEC coach can by winning the conference regular season and tournament titles and claiming a 15 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Manhattan came calling last off season and it seemed like Ferry might go, until he didn’t. Instead he returned and once again won the NEC regular season title.

Now, after back-to-back seasons with NEC titles, Ferry is in charge of one of the premiere programs in the conference. He took eight seasons to build the foundation for this success and it’s going to take the perfect job for him to leave. Like Hurley’s Seahawks the Blackbirds will be loaded against next season. NEC Player of the Year Julian Boyd will be back for his senior season with Jamal Olasewere and Jason Brickman is there to run the floor with them. Ferry will need to find some more front court depth, but Brandon Thompson could be starting in the NEC right now and more talent is surely on the way.

Andrew Toole: The youngster

It’s a testament to Mike Rice, the Robert Morris program and Andrew Toole what has happened in Pittsburgh the past few seasons. When Rice got the opportunity to go to Rutgers Toole took the reigns and has never faltered. The Colonials played in the NEC title game last season and are there once again after their upset of Wagner on Sunday. Like their coach, the Colonials are a careful blend of experience and youth. Just one player, Lawrence Bridges, will graduate at the end of this season.

Toole is the youngest head coach in NCAA Division I. He’s been a head coach for just two (albeit very successful) seasons. Is he ready to leap? Will the struggles his mentor Rice has had at Rutgers serve as a cautionary tale? Toole is a shooting star, but it’s obvious that success can be sustained at Robert Morris. There are athletes to be found in that area of the country who can play the switching defensive system that RMU so deftly employs. The majority of the roster comes from the area surrounding the city. There are lots of gems to be found in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, which make up more than half the roster.

And there’s this wildcard, Karon Abraham, arguably RMU’s most talented player, will return next season. He was suspended all season due to violating school rules. It was a gutsy move by a young coach, but it’s paid dividends and showed Toole wasn’t afraid to make tough decisions.

More to come

Where does that leave us? Could all three return? Surely. If they did the NEC would probably be prepared for the best season in conference history. These three programs should be joined by others like Central Connecticut, St. Francis (NY) and Monmouth next season. Seven of the league’s top 10 players return. It could be a banner year for the conference, but it’ll only be as strong as possible if Hurley, Ferry and Toole resist the siren’s song of other jobs and come back to finish what they’ve started.

Projected NIT Bracket through March 4, 2012

Now there’s actually a reason for me to care about these NIT brackets with Iona and Wagner both hoping to get a bid. The last few teams into the NCAA Tournament here are some combination of Washington, Cincinnati, Mississippi State, Northwestern, South Florida, Texas and Seton Hall. Yeah, talk about a weak bubble. Thus if you’re wondering why the top of the NIT is a mess that’s why. The next bracket will come out on Thursday. All of this is highly subject to change.

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Wagner’s season ends too quickly

In stunningly swift fashion a special Wagner season that had taken months to build came to a crashing end on Sunday afternoon against Robert Morris at the Spiro Sports Center in the NEC semifinals. Robert Morris’ Velton Jones controlled play and led the Colonials to a 71-64 win.

The game was a story of two halves. In the first the officials dominated play, calling 29 personal fouls. Both teams struggled offensively, but Wagner came out of the first 20 minutes with a 31-29 lead on its home court.

But at the opening of the second half it all disappeared. RMU scored 10 of the first 11 points of the second half to build an eight-point lead, 40-32, and never looked back, pushing the lead to as many as nine and withstanding a late Wagner charge for the victory.

“We’ve been a great start of second half team all year,” said Wagner head coach Dan Hurley. “We weren’t tonight. We had some opportunities for some finishes around the basket. We could’ve maintained control of the game. We didn’t make the plays. They made the plays.”

Jones was the best player on the court. Robert Morris’ junior point guard 25 points on 5-10 shooting and 14-16 from the free throw line. He picked up three fouls in the first half, but managed to avoid picking up his fourth until 1:24 remained in the game. It was a foul he drew against Kenneth Ortiz with 1:03 remaining, the shot clock expiring and the Colonials hanging onto a three-point lead that was the biggest play of the game. He calmly knocked down all three free throws and RMU finished out the game.

For Wagner it was the culmination of two seasons of hard work under Hurley coming to their first crest. The Seahawks finish with a record of 25-6 (15-3), a place no one could’ve imagined them being two seasons ago.

“Coach came in here with a style two years ago and we bought it right away,” said senior Tyler Murray. “To make a such transition, it’s incredible.”

Part of the resurgence has been the leadership and play of Murray. He scored 15 points on 6-11 shooting in 26 minutes on Saturday before fouling out. Sophomore Latif Rivers led the way with 18 points, most of them coming on 11-12 shooting from the line.

Unfortunately, Wagner didn’t have the post play to complement those two against Robert Morris’ talented trio of Mike McFadden, Lijah Thompson and Russell Johnson. Thompson in particular helped RMU dominate on the boards with eight offensive rebounds. The Colonials grabbed 21 offensive rebounds and won the overall rebounding battle 45-30. If Thompson had been able to make more of his 10 point-blank shots RMU would’ve had an even bigger cushion to work with.

The Colonials also displayed the maturity that comes with being in this situation multiple times in the last four seasons. As RMU struggled with fouls in the first half they didn’t let the game get away. In the second Andrew Toole expertly shuffled his lineup. The Colonials committed 30 fouls in the game, but not one player fouled out. Six players ended up with four fouls.

“I think [the experience] helps us a lot,” Jones said. “We’ve played in big games like this throughout our years here. I think that helped us a lot to be able to finish out the game and be composed even though they made a run at the end.”

On the other side the youthful Seahawks often forced things that weren’t there in transition. Wagner had just four fast break points off 12 RMU turnovers and shot 27-40 from the line. It’s those types of things that Hurley will have to continue to work on.

“Sometimes you want it so badly, you get in your own way,” Hurley said. “It’s tough to take, but you’re just so proud of who these guys are.”

Hopefully Wagner will get a bid to the NIT. The Seahawks, with road wins over Pittsburgh, Princeton and Penn and just one bad loss (at Central Connecticut) certainly deserve to be considered. Hurley hopes his team will get that chance.

“We hope for the opportunity to play in [the NIT] because of everything that we’ve achieved throughout the year,” Hurley said. “I think we’ve earned it. Hopefully the committee feels the same way.”

It’ll be another opportunity build towards what looks like a bright future.

NEC Tournament Prediction

My NEC Tournament simulator really likes Wagner. So does basically every computer in the country. The problem with that is that the Seahawks are 0-2 against the team they may need to beat (LIU Brooklyn) to take the title. LIU and Wagner are the only NEC teams that showed up in better than 50% of conference finals and it’s quite possible that someone other than the top two seeds could take the title. At 17.1% to win the title Robert Morris is a decent third bet.

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Final tempo-free NEC, plus awards

All the games have been played and the final weekend provided a big shake up! Not only did LIU Brooklyn fall at Monmouth, a bunch of other teams got knocked out too. Fascinatingly enough, Robert Morris almost caught LIU after the Blackbirds’ disaster, but since it only mattered in tempo-free world LIU will still hang onto home court throughout the conference tournament, which at least gives Jim Ferry’s team a fighting chance at repeating as champions. I’ve also included my All-NEC First and Second Teams and conference awards at the end of this post.

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Projected NIT Bracket – 2/26/2012

This is the latest projected NIT bracket I have through Sunday’s results. Once again I used Jerry Palm’s projected NCAA field to figure out the at-large bids and determine where I was going with the NIT bracket. Thus if you’re wondering who to complain to about your team being in the NCAA field or the NIT talk to him. Miami (FL) and USF both scored big wins on Sunday that pushed them up near the top of the bracket. Also, my seed scrubbing was done using CBS’ team comparison feature, which made this much easier to do. I expect that there will be a ton of conference tournament upsets, so if you’re a seven or eight seed there is still work to do.

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Recapping 10,000 sims in the NEC

Way back in December I simmed 10,000 NEC conference seasons as a prelude to what may happen using Ken Pomeroy’s data. In those simulations Robert Morris and Wagner dominated the top of the league. It looked after non-conference play that those two were going to run away with things and people who said that LIU Brooklyn and Central Connecticut were serious challengers were crazy. Well that’s why they play the games.

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What is up with the NEC?

The final day of NEC action ended up being so far from what anyone expected that the conference has basically been flipped upside down going into the postseason tournament. All four of the teams that will be hosting games on Thursday night lost (on the road) on Saturday. Three of those losses came to teams that will be in the NEC tournament and shows the wide-open nature of the conference this season.

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