After the NCAA tournament draws were announced on Sunday evening, many of us likely raced over to KenPom and Basketball State to learn about Robert Morris’ next opponent, North Florida. The Ospreys won 20 Division I games this season and were dominant in the beaten down Atlantic Sun Conference, winning both the regular season and league tournament championship. They knocked off Purdue on the road this season. Moreover, North Florida impressively scored nearly 106 points per 100 possessions this season, thanks to an effective field goal percentage of 53.6%. With only one senior playing meaningful minutes this season, it appears North Florida is a mid-major program on the rise.

Despite the conference’s low ranking in general (30th overall), KenPom views North Florida as the 127th best team in the nation, whereas Robert Morris ranks 173. So why did the Colonials get thrown into the First Four game with North Florida? It’s all about RPI and SOS, my friends.

• North Florida (#16) – RPI 158, KenPom 127, SOS 321, 9-1 last 10, 20 DI victories
• Robert Morris (#16) – RPI 171, KenPom 173, SOS 222, 8-2 last 10, 19 DI victories
• Albany (#14) – RPI 109, KenPom 132, SOS 298, 9-1 last 10, 24 DI victories
• Texas Southern (#15) – RPI 127, KenPom 207, SOS 299, 10-0 last 10, 22 DI victories

Seems like the Ospreys would have a decent case for staying out of the play-in game, but this is obviously a moot point now.

In order to learn more about the Ospreys, we turned to the exclusive North Florida basketball blog, Swoop Hoops. I highly recommend checking out their site for some great information on the Atlantic Sun champions. But before you meander over there, check out our Q&A with Swoop Hoops founder, John Weidner.

(Also for my responses to Swoop Hoops questions regarding Robert Morris, go here.)

1) What has been the difference for Matthew Driscoll’s team this year compared to previous seasons where the Ospreys were hovering around 0.500?

Driscoll credits his team’s success this year to the fact that this is the closest team that he has ever been involved with. The team and everyone involved acts as a family, and you can tell that the guys really love each other. It doesn’t hurt that he has the most talented/versatile group of players the school has ever had by far.

2) At first glance, North Florida looks to have a really good offensive profile. Top 100 nationally in offensive efficiency. Shooting 38% from behind the arc and 51% on their twos. Draining 72% of their free throws. Clearly this is a team that thrives offensively. What do they do so well that made Atlantic Sun opponents struggle to defend them?

Almost everyone on the roster can shoot the lights out…but what they are really good at is creating good opportunities. The Ospreys are incredibly unselfish, and work as a team to find the best shot. They almost have a sixth sense for knowing where to pass. However, their shooters are also good at creating space for their own opportunities.

(Note: Five Osprey regulars are shooting at least 37% from behind the arc with three of those players measuring 6’6″ or taller.)

3) After sophomore guard Dallas Moore, who appears to be the go-to guy, who else should Robert Morris worry about defensively?

Dallas Moore is a flashy, fun-to-watch shooter that can take over a game quickly. He laid 27 on Indiana last season, and puts on a display of circus-like drives to the net on a nightly basis. Moore is not a one man show though. The Ospreys have seven players who have scored 20-plus in a game this season, and you can never tell who will star on a given night. UNF’s top two long range shooters (Trent Mackey and Beau Beech) have gone 1-23 from behind the arc in the last two games, but other players stepped up. Moore scored 36 against Lipscomb, and Jalen Nesbitt and Demarcus Daniels combined for 38 points against USC Upstate in the A-Sun tourney final.

(Fun Fact: According to KenPom, Dallas Moore was the second best player in the Atlantic Sun this season. Despite handling more than 25% of UNF’s possessions when on the floor, Moore still posted an excellent offensive rating of 110.2. He made 52.6% of his twos, an impressive feat for a 6’1″ sophomore guard.)

4) Robert Morris mostly plays zone (an aggressive 2-3) on defense. Bombs away for North Florida from behind the arc then? Is that how you’d expect Driscoll to attack a 2-3 zone?

At times this season the Ospreys have taken more shots from three than from inside in the course of a game, so you can expect UNF to take advantage of the Achilles’ heel of the 2-3 zone…perimeter scoring. Even when the treys aren’t falling Coach Driscoll will tell his players to keep shooting from long range or sit on the bench. This approach often leads to some wide open opportunities when they do decide to go inside, and it has also earned them the nickname #BirdsOfTrey.

(Note: More than 42% of UNF’s shot attempts were threes this season. Only 27 Division I programs took a higher percentage of three-pointers. Birds of Trey indeed.)

5) Obviously an osprey is a bird, but which bird(s) is it most similar too? And how often do you or your friends “swoop”?

An Osprey is bird that is a type of agressive seahawk. They are similar to the Bald Eagle and red-tailed hawks, but are slightly smaller in size. They are often found on golf courses or nearly any body of water. The Osprey “Swoop” is similar to the Gator “Chomp” that the University of Florida is known for, and UNF students can be seen swooping when a player makes a foul shot, or when the frat-boys get a little too excited.

(Want to see a “swoop” in action? Then take 1 minute to watch this video, you won’t be disappointed! Or maybe you will be…)

6) Based on my limited exposure to your excellent blog and Twitter account, you seem to be fairly confident that North Florida will prevail over Robert Morris. Can I get you on the record for a game prediction?

Coach Driscoll is from Pittsburgh and has several ties to Robert Morris (he even was a finalist for their coaching vacancy around eight years ago when Mike Rice got the job), so he knows the program fairly well. The Colonials style plays into what the Ospreys like to do, so don’t expect them to change up to too much in terms of their gameplan. The biggest concern for UNF is the fact that they have been off a week and a half, and have had plenty of time to get caught up in the excitement of the program’s first ever trip to March Madness. This may cause the Ospreys problems, but it shouldn’t be enough to take away from the momentum they’ve gained from winning 16 of their last 18. The game will be close at the half, but UNF’s shooters will shine on the big stage. PREDICTION: UNF 82 – Robert Morris 71.

Thanks to John for helping us out! Tomorrow’s First Four game begins at 6:40 PM in Dayton.