The non-conference season is nearing to an end, but before NEC basketball starts up on January 3rd, Monmouth fans will be treated to the rare home appearance by a Big East team. Monmouth will host Villanova at the MAC this Saturday night at 7 PM. It’s one of the more anticipated NEC games of the non-conference season, therefore I brought in VU Hoops writer Brian Ewart for a Q&A to talk about the 7-4 Wildcats. Many thanks to Brian for giving us a better understanding of what makes Villanova tick!

Four Key Questions:

1) It seems like Jay Wright has lost a little magic in recruiting. Recently, he hasn’t found players like Scottie Reynolds, Allan Ray, Randy Foye, etc (although Ryan Arcidiacono and JayVaughn Pinkston look good). Is he having more difficultly recruiting in the Philly area? Is it bad luck that some of these recruits haven’t quite panned out or is Wright just not doing enough with his talent?

BE: Jay Wright has always had difficulty recruiting Philadelphia. Kyle Lowry was really the first Philly kid he recruited, which was four years into his tenure. Getting the local kids is a more recent phenomenon. When he first got to Villanova, he was getting a lot of kids from New York and New Jersey, he still does get some up there, but more and more he’s getting kids from schools in the DMV-area and obviously he has been getting some Philly kids as well.

It’s a combination of factors really. There have been some unfortunate injuries (James Bell has metal rods in his legs), unfortunate transfers (Malcolm Grant looked great at Miami, but Wright couldn’t hold on to him), and yes, some kids really didn’t develop as much as you might have expected when they were in high school. I think the biggest factor is that Wright had a stretch where he went after kids because they were good and not necessarily because they were a fit for his program, either physically or culturally.

2) According to KenPom, Villanova has one of the better defenses in the country. What have they done well in the early going?

BE: They’ve been winning their gamble on help-defense more often than they lose it. Moe Sutton has been huge on defense, as has Achraf Yacoubou, who have both done a great job on their defensive assignments and, in the case of Sutton, has brought some intensity inside, including his tremendous shot-blocking ability.

Wright has always stressed defense a lot from his guys and he has seemed to get through to them a bit lately. That said, they still struggle at times and a slate that has included some overmatched opponents and other struggling teams has certainly helped with the statistics.

3) What’s the best way to defend against the Wildcats’ offense? I’ve seen Columbia have some success forcing Villanova to shoot over their 2-3 zone. They’ve also struggled with turnovers, and Monmouth is one of the best in the country at turning their opponents over with their pressure defense. Does Nova have enough ball handlers on this club to combat this or will that be a major concern?

BE: Nova has struggled a lot against the 2-3 zone in recent years using it can force the ‘Cats to shoot, and though outside shooting has improved a bit from last year, they are still streaky. James Bell has had some terrible stretches shooting the ball, despite being .426 from 3pt, so if the ‘Cats are on a cold-streak, it makes sense to go to the 2-3 and force them to shoot.

That said, putting pressure on Ryan Arcidiacono seems to work well. He tries to do too much at times and is prone to turning it over when he does that. Chennault has also had some bad games, but he has protected the ball better overall. That said, all-around, turnovers have been an issue for the ‘Cats. Arch still plays a lot more because despite his turnovers, he is the better passer on the team, and the ‘Cats need to try to get the ball to Bell and JayVaughn Pinkston.

Chennault does play, however, and Yacoubou and Hilliard have decent handle as well. There was actually some talk of having Pinkston play point guard in an emergency last season while Ty Johnson was hurt. The major concern for Villanova is that a player like Arcidiacono is still young and may struggle at times breaking pressure, even with some help.

4) What’s your Big East prediction for the club, knowing what you know now. Is a NCAA bid a reasonable goal, or is that a little far-fetched?

BE: I hate to make predictions, but I don’t think Villanova has proven that it’s a team that can get into the top few of the Big East this season. The ‘Cats will hope to improve during conference play and be ready for the Big East tournament. If they continue to make improvements as the season progresses, then a run at MSG isn’t unthinkable.

They were 6-5 around this time last season and are about a win ahead of that pace this time around. The NCAA Tournament may be a reach at this point (especially without that run at MSG), but with improvement, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Villanova accept an NIT bid in March.

Three Key Stats:

• Winning the Turnover Battle: Turning the opponent over has been Monmouth’s calling card, as the Hawks are currently fourth in the country in defensive turnover rate. And wouldn’t you know it, Villanova has difficultly protecting the basketball as Brian mentioned above. If the smaller yet quicker Hawks can reek havoc on the ‘Cats and force at least 20 turnovers, there’s a respectable chance for an upset. Then again, Monmouth forced 23 Maryland turnovers in a blowout loss, so the next stat also has significant meaning.

• Progressing Back to Average Production: It’s been a putrid start to the season offensively for Monmouth, with the Hawks scoring 0.85 points per possession. That simply won’t cut it (nor will a season shooting percentage of 42.7% eFG%), therefore the offensive needs to desperately step up their level. 0.95 points per possession, as pedestrian as that may should, should be the goal. Three-point shooting has also been a major weakness, yet Villanova is allowing opponents to shoot 36.8% from behind the arc. Jesse Steele, Dion Nesmith, and Andrew Nicholas have to knock down their outside looks on Saturday. Also worth noting: When Monmouth scores at least 65 points, they are 5-1 on the season.

• Keeping it Close: This isn’t really a stat, but please just play along. Like most low mid-major teams, Monmouth has struggled to stay even remotely competitive against BCS competition, so King Rice needs to focus on keeping the game within reach heading into the second half. With the exception of their last second loss to Rider, every defeat found the Hawks in a big deficit during the game. With the Hawks’ issues offensively, playing behind is something this roster isn’t equipped to do. But if they can keep it close, keep the amped up MAC crowd involved, then you never know.

One Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Villanova 76, Monmouth 67 (Villanova listed as a 79% favorite)