UMass Lowell, Cornell and Hofstra are just some of the surprises of the young college basketball season.
We’re 10 days and five games (as of my latest data download) into the season, but some teams are already starting to show up as major surprises. Those three teams, and a few others, have seen their pythagorean efficiencies climb quickly this season. Of course, as teams went up others went down. In particular Central Connecticut, Penn and Fordham represent some of the biggest dissapointments during this young season.
Part of the reasons that some of the rankings have changed actually has little to do with how a team has come out of the gate. Ken Pomeroy works hard to have accurate preseason projections, but his system doesn’t know about injuries or big transfers and that’s a major theme for a few of the teams on the biggest improvements.
Teams with the biggest improvement (in terms of percentage change in pythagorean rating since opening day):
1. UMass Lowell
2. Incarnate Word
3. Maryland Eastern Shore
4. Grand Canyon
5. Cornell
6. Louisiana Monroe
7. Samford
8. Lafayette
9. Gardner-Webb
10. Central Michigan
Other notables: Hofstra (11), UNCW (16), Monmouth (22), Northeastern (26), Miami FL (30 – highest BCS school)
These teams actually fall into some pretty neat categories. Let’s group them in some reasonable way to better analyze just how they’ve gotten off to fast starts.
Players returning from injury: Cornell, Lafayette, Monmouth — Cornell’s rise is pretty easy. The Big Red played without Shonn Miller and Galal Cancer for most of last season. They’re why Bill Courtney’s team has been competitive in most of their first six games and why Cornell certainly doesn’t look like the Ivy League’s worst team this season. Seth Hinrichs only played 20 games last season, but he’s back healthy and Lafayette’s defense is passable! After playing 48.5% of Monmouth’s minutes last season Justin Robinson is back healthy and playing 70.3% through four games. He’s been awesome too. Health will be important going forward for Monmouth. The Hawks’ Andrew Nicholas has already been hampered a bit this season.
Small schools making early waves: UMass Lowell, Incarnate Word, Maryland Eastern Shore, Grand Canyon — Well, UIW has played one game against Division I competition in the first 10 days of the season. It was at Princeton and the Cardinals won in rather convincing fashion, 79-68. Early in the season they’ve played fast and they’ve blown out their non-Division I competition too, so this team, in just its second season in Division I, could be quite competitive. On the other hand, UMass Lowell has played five games — all on the road — and won three of them. No matter who you beat (and the margins haven’t been big either), you’re going to get a boost. UML is in its second season of Division I competition and Pat Duquette’s team might be more dangerous than people thought coming into the season. UMES also falls into this category. They might be 1-4, but that includes five road games thanks to the life of a MEAC school. Some of the margins haven’t been pretty, but a win over Mount St. Mary’s and a tight loss against Saint Francis PA suggests that Bobby Collins’ team might be a bit better than expected. GCU opened the season by losing by 40 at Kentucky, but since they have put together three respectable games on the way to a 2-2 record. Dan Majerle’s team is playing a more respectable schedule this season and the Antelopes have looked ok.
Transfers arrive: Hofstra — Juan’ya Green, Ameen Tanksley, Brian Bernardi. Enough said.
There are of course also some teams that haven’t done so well. Here are the teams with the biggest decrease (in terms of percentage change in pythagorean rating since opening day):
1. Central Connecticut
2. Presbyterian
3. Delaware
4. Jacksonville
5. Penn
6. Drake
7. UNC Greensboro
8. Fresno St.
9. Fairfield
10. Florida A&M
Other notables: Fordham (12), George Mason (13), Wagner (16), Princeton (18), USC (19 – worst BCS school), NJIT (21), Mount St. Mary’s (22), Robert Morris (24), Lehigh (27), Binghamton (28)
There’s one large category here.
Young teams finding their way. Here are the experience ranks of a bunch of teams on this list:
- Binghamton: 351 (last)
- Delaware: 350
- USC: 348
- Fordham: 335
- Wagner: 328
- Penn: 325
- Drake: 315
- Florida A&M: 305
Not every team relying on young players is Kentucky. These teams are still trying to figure out how to build rotations around young lineups.
There are a number of NEC schools on the down list. In general, the conference has struggled quite a bit early in the season. Considering that nine teams face a road game next, things could get worse before they get better.
NYC Buckets Archive 