NEC Breakout Candidates – Part 1

Every season, the NEC produces players that generally come out of nowhere, or elevate themselves from a typical role player to a program cornerstone.  Players like Scott Eatherton and Jason Brickman, for example, elevated their game last season to become valuable contributors for their respective teams.

Starting today, I’m identifying players who may have a bigger impact than expected for the 2012-13 season. In part 1 of this 2-part series, I’m focusing on the players you probably have heard of.  These guys are already accomplished, but I’m expecting them to make the leap into the elite class of players and be seriously considered for the All-NEC first team at season’s end. In no particular order, here are my breakout candidates for the 2012-13 season!

Lucky Jones, Robert Morris

Anytime you’re an athletic 6-foot-5 wing in the NEC, the potential for stardom is there.  Last season, Jones was incredibly efficient rebounding and defending the basketball, ranking 6th in rebound rate and 13th in steal rate among eligible NEC players.  And he was only a freshman.  That baseline along with Jones’ expected progression on the offensive end – he has reportedly worked hard in the offseason on his shooting – could catapult him into the All-NEC 2nd team discussion at season’s end.  A lot depends on how much Andy Toole asks Jones to score, but all signs lead toward a higher usage rate, especially if he plays exclusively at the “3.”  I’m feeling lucky with Lucky, and so should you.

Julian Norfleet, Mount St. Mary’s

It was a dreadful past season for the Mount offensively, but Norfleet still managed to quietly average 13.7 ppg with respectable shooting percentages.  With Jamion Christian employing an up-tempo offense, Norfleet could serve as the biggest beneficiary.  The math is simple – more possessions, more fast-break opportunities, and another year of development equals a potential breakout campaign for the junior guard.  He progressed nicely from a pure shooter into a scorer last season when Lamar Trice was dismissed from the team, so it’s completely plausible to expect Norfleet to sneak into the NEC top 10 players at season’s end.

Alex Francis, Bryant

Let’s play a little game here.  Here are the 2011-12 statistics for two players:

Player A – 20.9 points per 40 min, 7.4 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.7 spg , 53.0 EFG%
Player B – 20.6 points per 40 min, 9.3 rpg, 0.8 apg, 0.8 spg, 56.2 EFG%

Fairly similar, huh?  Well, Player A is Alex Francis.  Player B?  It’s All-NEC Second Team selection Ike Azotam.  This just goes to show you the star power of Francis who has yet to be considered an elite player of the NEC.  But with the new pieces added to coach Tim O’Shea’s roster this season, I fully expect Francis to burst into the All-NEC discussion.  There are two things Francis must improve upon now as an upperclassman for the breakout to happen – his turnover rate (it should tick down with more scoring options around him) and his low-post defense.

Justin Swidowski, Sacred Heart

I know what you’re thinking – NICE HOMER PICK YOU BIASED FOOL!!!  Please hear me out.  Swidowski spent his junior season getting acclimated to Division I basketball, and not surprisingly was plagued with inconsistency.  The former Division II standout had difficultly staying on the floor due to foul trouble, but when he played more than 23 minutes per game, Swidowski impressed with a line of 14.3 ppg/6.1 rpg/1.1 bpg.  Not bad for a Division I rookie.  This season, Dave Bike has more capable frontcourt depth on the roster, which should reduce the number of four-guard sets Sacred Heart is forced to run, compared to last season.  As a result, Swidowski won’t be asked to guard the opponent’s  best post player as much, which should reduce the number of personal fouls he accrues.  If that’s the case, I see the potential for a 15 ppg/8 rpg/1.5 bpg with very good shooting percentages on the horizon.  That’s absolutely All-NEC 2nd team upside.