The 2011-12 season was a tale of two halves for the Monmouth Hawks. You had the first half which came as no surprise to everyone; Monmouth stumbled mightily out of the gate en route to a 3-16 mark, with only two of those losses in single digits. Then seemingly out of nowhere, the King Rice led bunch concluded the season on an improbable 9-4 stretch, which included a 28-point drubbing of the NEC champion LIU Blackbirds in the regular season finale.
When the smoke had cleared, fans were rightfully impressed with Rice’s turnaround, so much so that several people now have Monmouth pegged as the sexy sleeper team of the NEC.
Count me as one of the non-believers who won’t be jumping on the Monmouth bandwagon any time soon. This doesn’t mean I dislike the direction of the program. It’s actually on the contrary, because I feel the Hawks are set up nicely for the 2013-14 season and beyond, with the immediate period serving as an opportunity for the 2012 recruiting class to get their feet wet while transfers Deon Jones and Stephen Spinella watch from the sideline. During this transition period, I feel the Hawks will struggle. Here’s why:
1) Significant Roster Turnover
Of the NEC teams expected to compete for a playoff berth, Monmouth and Wagner have the most roster turnover. Monmouth, however, does not have a super recruit coming in, much like Bashir Mason has with Dwaun Anderson. The core of Jesse Steele, Dion Nesmith, and Andrew Nicholas is in tact, yet the roster depth will be tested with the departure of four key contributors. Specifically, the graduation of Mike Myers Keitt and Phil Wait significantly reduces their size inside the paint, and it may be asking a little too much for freshmen Tyrone O’Garro and Colin Stewart to fill the void right away. How King Rice deals with a smaller lineup and integrates the 4 freshmen will be fascinating to watch, though I’m skeptical these adjustments will be solved overnight, especially with a taxing non-conference schedule.
2) A Half Season of Overachievement
The tempo-free statistics strongly suggest Monmouth played over their heads and/or got a bit lucky during the latter half of the 2011-12 season. Based on Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, Monmouth should have finished 8th in the NEC. They won a couple of close games (see Sacred Heart up 9 with 3:30 left and possession) that could have easily gone either way and they knocked off an injury depleted St. Francis (NY) and an unmotivated LIU squad in the final week of the regular season. It seems harsh to strip away their late season accomplishments with minor arguments, yet I have trouble convincing myself that Monmouth could be better than the Central Connecticuts, Sacred Hearts and Quinnipiacs of the world. This season, perhaps some of those lucky breaks will shift in the other direction and regress toward the mean, which leads me to my next point…
3) What Goes Up More Often Will Come Down
In Rice’s first season, Monmouth jumped from five to ten conference victories, for a whopping improvement of five games. It was a fantastic turnaround, but for people expecting the Hawks to match or improve their 10-8 NEC record… Well they’re betting against the Plexiglas Principle, a theory originally created by the great Bill James. The basic principle of the Plexiglas Principle is this: A team that improves in one season tends to decline the next, and vice versa. It may not seem believable, but it mostly rings true when applied to team projections. Past writers have applied the Plexiglas Principle with success (see Grantland’s Jonah Keri using the principle to project fantasy baseball player performance), so it behooved me to crunch the numbers for past NEC results. In my crack research going back the past 10 seasons, I discovered this interesting tidbit:
NEC teams that have improved by 5 or more games from one season to the next have a 73% chance of regressing the following season.
So what does that mean? It means Monmouth has a significantly better chance to win 7-9 NEC games, rather than 11-13 games. 8 or 9 victories would probably be good enough for a 7/8 seed and qualification into the NEC playoffs, yet such a season certainly wouldn’t push Monmouth into the NEC elite. With a difficult schedule on the horizon and the other NEC programs improving, it’s unlikely the Hawks will have a record better than 10-8 at season’s end. And the Plexiglas Principle supports this notion.
4) Who Will Score in Crunch Time
Not having a reliable go-to-player with a usage rate north of 28% may not matter as much for Monmouth, who under Rice was a team whose sum was greater than their parts. Nevertheless, it still warrants mentioning with a roster that shares the ball as much as Monmouth. All signs point toward Steele being the go-to-guy late in the game, but he still remains unproven in that regard. Sometimes it helps to have a proven scorer late in the game, but who will serve as the Julian Boyd, Shane Gibson, or Kyle Vinales of this team? That remains to be seen.
And there you have it. Each individual point is a minor argument on its own, but together they build a respectable case for why Monmouth may take a small step back in year two. It won’t be a lost season by any stretch; it’s simply a transition year for Rice which will set Monmouth up for the future. If you’re searching for a season to pick Monmouth as your sleeper team, maybe the 2013-14 season would be your best bet. That’s when I’ll jump on the Hawks bandwagon.
Ryan Peters covers Northeast Conference men’s basketball for Big Apple Buckets and Pioneer Pride. You can follow Ryan on Twitter @pioneer_pride
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Let me start by prefacing that I do not believe that MU will win the NEC this year, nor do I believe they will even host a home game in conference. However in response to your article that MU will regress; I have to disagree for a few reasons.
1. First of all I do not agree that the personnel losses are that crippling for this team. With all due respect to Mike Myers-Keitt, Phil Wait, Will Campbell, Austin Tillotson and Daniel James none of those players were Monmouth’s best player last year. Not even one of them started every game for the Hawks. James was a total non-factor in his MU career and saw little p.t. last year. Mike Myers-Keitt will be the biggest loss as he did lead MU in scoring 3 times last year but was extremely inconsistent in what should’ve been a breakout senior year for him in King Rice’s up-tempo system. He was a great kid, worked hard and was 6’7 but he was 180 lbs. soaking wet so doubtful MU will miss his presence inside the paint as noted above. Some size that MU will miss is the 7’1 Phil Wait. I loved Phil’s passion and effort, but even in the NEC he was overmatched many nights by smaller, quicker, stronger and/or more skilled big men in the NEC. He had his moments but crippled MU at the free throw line (37%) and did not finish strong enough to be a nightly low-post option. Despite his size he rarely blocked shots and offensive players had a tendency to maneuver around him to avoid Phil’s ability to alter shots. Will Campbell went from a bigtime scorer at Monmouth early in his career to a backup guard who generally was brought in in quick spurts to pressure the ball and try to create a bit offensively. After some talk King Rice was planning to utilize him as the team’s point guard by molding his skills, Will was used primarily as a backup 5’10 shooting guard. Speaking of diminuitive guards, Austin Tillotson had a successful freshman year with the Hawks but decided to transfer to Colgate in favor of a stronger academics. Tillotson became a starter during MU’s big run to close the year and was the type of player that does not do anything flashy but did not make many mistakes. He often made the extra pass or rotation of defense that helped make winning plays. I was upset to see him leave, but do feel that he could be replaced by one of the freshman guards coming in.
2. Who is coming in and coming back: MU brings in a freshman class that has not been shown much love over the internet or through recruiting publications. I have not seen these kids in person, so I cannot give a concrete opinion on any of them but I do trust King Rice and his staff’s eye for talent and ability to bring in the right kids for their program. Jalen Palm seems to be an explosive little guard with a good midrange game, Tyrone O’Garro is said to be a relentless rebounder but undersized, Christian White is characterized as a winning, gritty point guard and Colin Strewart is known as a sweet-shooting 2 guard in a 6’8 body. The jury is out on these kids for now, but there are opportunities for them to play in the rotation with the graduation and transfer losses.
In addition to the freshman class, there are some other players who are eligible (and possibly eligible) for the Hawks this year. Gary Cox is a 6’6 athletic forward who has a nice outside shot (11-26 42% in one half season with MU in 10-11 before sitting out the last 1 1/2 yrs to focus on academics). He will be counted on to take over Mike Myers-Keitt’s role as an athletic forward off of the bench who can make athletic plays, offer length defensively and knock down the 3. Also adding to the frontcourt this year is 6’9 stringbean redshirt Khalil Brown who comes with the tag as King Rice’s first recruit to sign on at Monmouth. King took him knowing that he probably would only have 3 years of eligibility after sitting out last year due to a post-graduate issue. From what I’ve seen from him, he needs to be motivated in order to get the motor running but is 6’9 and long with the ability to block some shots inside defensively as a help defender or in a zone. One wildcard right now is Steve Spinella (South Carolina transfer) who did not play basketball last year at S.C. but was a scholarship guard off the bench the two years prior in the SEC. He has petitioned for a waiver to play this year and if he gets it I believe this 6’5 player has the athletic ability and shooting stroke to offer MU either a starter at the 3 or a veteran scorer off of the bench. The final player outlined here was on the roster last year, but was never 100% after battling back from a major ACL or MCL injury. Marcus Ware looked amazing in the summer when I saw him at JSBL. I believe that he has a chance to step forward as a RS Junior this year and show his explosiveness back and offer an inside scoring presence to compliment Jesse Steele outside. If he is 100% back healthy which he looked like to me this summer (in outplaying Rutgers’ Derrick Randall) he has a chance to garner an All-NEC 2nd team nod and comeback player of the year for MU.
The staff’s 2nd year: Riding on the coattails of last year’s successful finish and building upon the foundation that was set last year. The coaching staff learned from early mistakes and the team jelled and improved every day. They are no longer the new kids on the block. Also the returning core of Jesse Steele at the point (12.6ppg 133 assists), Dion Nesmith at the 2 (8.8 ppg 38% 3’s), forward Andrew Red Nicholas (8.8 ppg), forward Ed Waite (7.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg) along with Marcus Ware and seldom used athletic forward Mykel Harris allows MU to bring back their starting backcourt and potentially a starting frontcourt of Ed, Red and Marcus. Having a veteran backcourt and senior leadership inside could allow this team to actually overachieve compared to what your grey outlook projects above. I think that MU will be right around the 6 seed again in the NEC. I am just hoping that by the time the NEC tournament comes around they have again improved every day throughout the year and will be ready to make some noise led by their little superman Jesse Steele.
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Thanks so much for this thorough analysis of Monmouth and their future, I really appreciate it and love that there are fans so passionate about the NEC and the Hawks. I wanted to let you know that I agree with you – in that I see Monmouth finishing in the 5-6 range this season – but King Rice is shooting for more. Check back tomorrow morning for his comments on the “go-to player” argument and notes about the development of Khalil Brown and Marcus Ware. I think you’re going to be really impressed with what Rice had to say about his team. And I’ll be sure to use these arguments when Ryan P. and I debate the NEC standings in the near future!
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I completely agree with GumpHutch. There are a number of teams that will be more talented than Monmouth this year but we saw a number of coaching changes. Monmouth is actually one of the more stable teams with the coaching staff intact and a nice core of players that saw significant PT returning. Steele, Nesmith, and Ware will be lock starters and Nicholas played starter minutes last year and from what I’ve heard, has looked really good over the summer. So I think you got four starters back plus Ed Waite who has started and played big minutes in the past. Add a couple of talented freshmen and eligible players and It’s hard for me to believe that this team won’t be better in their second year under KR. You have to remember that last year was KR’s first year even being a head coach at the D1 level. He should be more comfortable and confident in his second year.
The loss of Phil to me may be a blessing in disguise. Yes he was 7ft but there were few games I felt he was helping the team more than hurting them when he was in. MKM was a streaky player. When he was on he was a big part but when he was off, you couldn’t play the guy. So I really think all the pieces they are adding will add depth and stability to the roster. Last year KR liked to go 3 guards with Steele, Nesmith, and Tillotson. I would prefer they go to a more traditional set this year and put Nicholas at his more natural 3 and give O’Garro or Ed Waite a shot at the 4. I think that would actually add size because now you have a 6’6 wing at the 3 instead of a 6″ guard. I”m very interested to see how the roster plays out and who KR goes with for starters.
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@MJACK44 – Phil & Mike have their degrees and have moved on. Its not MKM it MMK – Mike Myers Keitt stand corrected. You don’t know anything about these young man you see them play one year under circumstances going from playing in one sytem for 3 years to another they did their best. You have the nerve to make your negative comments. Worry about your son that is part of the team and hopefully he may start, and I hope he plays his natural 3 position . I truly wish Monmouth the best and hope parents like you don’t continue to make negative comments about other teammates it takes a total team effort to be successful.
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Please read again what you commented. If you don’t realize how foolish you sound than you don’t have a clue. I do not have a son on the team. I’m merely a fan that has his opinions. I only criticized their ability to play a game. I did not say anything negative about the person they are. If you can’t handle that then you should stay off message boards.
By the way, if we are going to pick out typos then you might want to use the plural meaning of man which is men when you are referring to more than one person. STAND CORRECTED lol. what a fool.
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I appreciate the thorough anaysis! To be clear, we’re arguing about a difference of 1-2 wins and maybe 1-2 seed positions. Right now, I’d project them around 8-9 wins and a 7 or 8 seed. Marc you have them as a 6 seed, which will give them 9 or 10 wins probably.
My overall point of the post is if people are expecting Monmouth to progress and improve upon their 10 victories last season, then you’ll probably be disappointed. I still have them in the playoffs and I still like the direction of the program. I’m not picking them to finish 6-10 with a 9 seed.
When determining the 5 thru 9 seeds of this conference, everyone would be foolish to say they can predict where St. Francis (NY), Monmouth, Sacred Heart, Mount St. Mary’s, and CCSU will finish. I just merely stated reasons why I think Monmouth won’t challenge for a home playoff game or just miss out.
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