As the major conference tournaments kick into high gear this week there’s a special type of bid stealer on the loose. High-major teams that have so-so records against their peers are hoping for one last shot to prove that they should play in the NIT this season. You see a lot of them at the bottom of the bracket already. UCLA, Pittsburgh, Colorado and LSU all sit somewhere around the cut-line. The Panthers in particular are an interesting case. They’re 17-16 overall after losing to Georgetown in the Big East Tournament, but the Panthers also have 14 losses to Top 100 competitors. I also watched them live on Tuesday and was sort of impressed. Is that enough to play in the NIT? I’m not really sure.
The Pac-12 tournament is just starting up and it should prove, along with the Atlantic 10 tournament, to be one of the tournaments that impacts this NIT bracket the most. UCLA, Colorado, Stanford, Arizona and Oregon have opportunities to play themselves out of the bracket (in both directions) during the next few days. Also, Arkansas, Maryland and New Mexico State all still have an opportunity to improve their resumes. Those three teams are sitting outside of the NIT looking in right now. Of course, more bid thieves could make this a moot point. Three are already hanging out at the bottom of the bracket.
Things you probably want to know before looking at the bracket:
- There were three seeding changes made for matchup purposes: Weber State was moved down to an 8 and St. Bonaventure up to a 7 to keep things more geographically compact. Illinois and Ohio were switched because I can’t believe the NIT committee would make the Illini play at the Bobcats, no matter how much that’s the correct thing to do. Same thing with Minnesota / Middle Tennessee State.
- Iona is an at-large into the NCAA tournament in this iteration. I might change my mind on it, but I just can’t stomach Seton Hall’s resume right now. This will probably be something I go back-and-forth on until Selection Sunday. Then again, if Northwestern loses to Minnesota tomorrow expect to see the Wildcats here. Also, Miami (FL) has a good chance of joining the NIT party as well.
- Last 8 out (no order): Northern Iowa, George Mason, Princeton, Denver, Arkansas, New Mexico State, Penn, Old Dominion. I know a lot of people think that the NIT will find a way to sneak an Ivy League team in. I want to know how.
NIT Bracket:
1. Seton Hall
8. Bucknell
4. UCF
5. Arizona
3. Marshall
6. Wyoming
2. N.C. State
7. UCLA
1. Texas
8. Valparaiso
4. Minnesota
5. Middle Tennessee State
3. Drexel
6. Buffalo
2. Tennessee
7. St. Bonaventure
1. Mississippi
8. Savannah State
4. Massachusetts
5. Stanford
3. Oral Roberts
6. Colorado
2. Saint Joseph’s
7. Wagner
1. Oregon
8. Weber State
4. Illinois
5. Ohio
3. La Salle
6. LSU
2. Dayton
7. Pittsburgh
Comments? Things you think I got completely wrong?
NYC Buckets Archive 
St Bonaventure – RPI 97,17-11 overall, finished 4th in their conference, 4-8 vs top 100, 0 wins vs top 50
George Mason – RPI 80, 24-9 overall, finished 3rd in their conference, 2-4 vs top 100, 1 win vs top 50
I gotta go with Mason.
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This was actually the decision I made for the last at-large spot in the bracket. So yippee! Yes, George Mason beat VCU in CAA play, but St. Bonaventure’s four Top 100 wins are better than any other GMU had this season. By RPI: Saint Joseph’s, Dayton, Loyola (MD), Buffalo are all in front of Bucknell.
Conference standings aren’t supposed to matter. So that’s a moot point. I could see arguments for either, but ultimately it came down to GMU having more bad losses. I guess like most things in life blame Isaiah Thomas.
Helpful link: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/GEOMAS/STBON
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Would have to go with Mason as well.
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Uh-oh. Iowa beats Illinois. Does that bring the Hawkeyes into the NIT bubble picture, while damaging Illinois’ seed but not causing them to drop out entirely?
Also, Go LSU! Beat Arkansas! (I guess)
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I don’t know what to do with Illinois. They’ve really slumped lately. Their seed is definitely going to be moved down in the next bracket, but remember they were a true 5. So downward movement could mean moving into dangerous waters. I think the LSU/Arkansas game is basically an NIT play-in game. And yes, I have to seriously consider Iowa again. If the Hawkeyes were to find a way to upset Michigan State they’d have to be in the NIT.
So in summary:
Illinois — Down (but in)
Iowa — Up
LSU/Arkansas — Winner in, Loser bubblicious
Maryland — A win over UNC away from making things really tough
A bunch of other NCAA/NIT teams play early round games today/tonight making this one of the biggest movement days of the year. That’s why I wanted the new bracket up beforehand. Note: Next bracket comes out on Saturday.
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I think Iowa should be in now if for no other reason look at how many wins they have against top 25 teams, more than any team on the big tourney bubble currently!
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Why is Iona not on this list? Are you assuming they make it to the ncaa tourney?
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Yes. Per bullet point two I chose Iona over Seton Hall in this iteration. I hang onto my right to change my mind. Or if Northwestern loses to Minnesota today maybe the Wildcats trade with the Pirates. I don’t really know.
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How do you not put in Princeton? 87 RPI and two top 50 RPI wins (including @FSU, which beat both Duke and UNC; sorry, but that’s some tight syllogism). Also beat Buffalo, your 6 seed, and finished with a strong run (including beating Penn and Yale, each top 100 RPI at the time, in convincing fashion in their final week). Savannah State’s best win is vs. RPI 227. C’mon now…
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Unfortunately Princeton was one of the first teams out of the bracket. I’m actually a fan of the Tigers and I’d like to see them play postseason basketball, but I ran out of spots. Savannah State has to be in the bracket due to an automatic bid.
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Aaaaand UT-Arlington joins the auto-bid parade. Ugh.
See you in the CBI, Mason fans? #DU2CBI
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Yup, UT-Arlington and Northwestern will join the NIT bracket next time due to opposite reasons. How excellent for both of them.
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I think after beating Clemson Virginia tech should be in there somewhere
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Virginia Tech is 16-16 (4-12 ACC) and has an RPI of 115 after last night’s win. The Hokies have 2 Top 100 wins (at Virginia, vs. St. Bonaventure) and a 200+ RPI loss at Boston College. That’s a profile of a team that’s way out of the field right now.
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What about Western Illinois (18-14)? They come out of the Summit, which has won about 60 percent against D-I teams, including Oral Roberts over Xavier by 20 and South Dakota State over Washington by 20 — both road games. Western knocked off ORU and lost in overtime to SDSU in the Summit tournament. It’s a young team with a veteran coach (Jim Molinari) on a roll at the end of the year — perfect for the NIT. Just wondering?
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Western Illinois seems like a perfect team for a CBI/CIT type bid, but they just don’t have the quality wins to make the NIT. The win over Oral Roberts is their only Top 100 RPI win of the season and they also have four losses to 200+ RPI teams. I’ve been thinking that WIU probably has a good shot at making a smaller tournament, so check out this page: http://nycbuckets.com/cbicit-tracking/ for more updates throughout today (March 11).
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