CAA Tournament Predictions

The CAA tourney is a showcase for the league. Fans from throughout the eastern seaboard are going to be heading to Richmond, VA with the hopes that their team can make a run through the tourney, which starts with a first round on Friday and claim the league’s automatic berth. At least two teams, VCU and Drexel, are hoping that a run to even the finals of the tournament could mean an at-large berth into the NCAA tournament.

Technically Richmond is a neutral site and I’ve treated it as such for this analysis. But I don’t really believe it for one second. Thus, even if you want to give VCU or Old Dominion even a fraction of a home court advantage they rise in these rankings. For instance, the Rams would actually become the favorite and ODU and Drexel’s numbers would look more similar (because they’d play in the semifinals).

Hofstra is the 11 seed in the tournament, but since the Pride: 1) Have a better Pomeroy number than 4 teams and 2) End up playing George Mason if they win their first round game, they made the finals a surprisingly high number of times in this analysis. Speaking of George Mason. That game with Georgia State is no gimme. If fact, it’s the Panthers that have the better Pomeroy ranking. On a neutral court it makes GSU a slight favorite, even if their offense is one of the ugliest things that CAA hoops fans will be subjected to over the long weekend.

Then there’s poor Towson. I tried to get the Tigers a tournament win or even a berth to the finals. It took 40,000 sims before Towson made the finals and in 100,000 simulations they made the finals a total of two times and never managed to win the title. You’d think that going into the game against 4 seed Old Dominion would help, but it really doesn’t, because it means going through top seed Drexel in order to make the finals. I’ve got no doubt though that Pat Skerry will have a competitive team in the near future.

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