Tempo-free NEC: Almost home edition

A couple Senior Nights have been played, most of the conference race has been decided and the NEC is getting wrapped up. As we go into the final week of the regular season what do people need to know about the league? Well, thanks to Ken Pomeroy’s new conference statistics we can take a look at some general trends. For one, like I’ve been saying all season, the NEC is a fast league. The fifth fastest paced league in the country in fact. This is driven by LIU Brooklyn, St. Francis (NY) and Sacred Heart, but it’s also a product of there not being any particularly slow teams in the league. There’s no Wisconsin here. The slowest paced team in the league in conference play has been Robert Morris at 65.8 possessions per game.

What else happens in the NEC? A lot of turnovers, a lot of offensive rebounds and quite a few assists. I think this is why Andrew Chiappazzi likes to say that this is a guard’s league. The teams that have good ones are able to rise above the pack. Of course, talent always rises to the top and that’s why once again LIU is sitting at the top of the league standings (or Jason Brickman). But it’s the team they’ve beaten twice, Wagner, that’s still hanging tough atop the efficiency rankings.

NEC Efficiency Standings:

1. Wagner (14-2) — +0.188
2. LIU Brooklyn (15-1) — +0.123
3. Robert Morris (12-4) — +0.106
4. St. Francis (NY) (12-4) — +0.054
5. Quinnipiac (8-8) — +0.052
6. Central Connecticut (8-8) — +0.018
7.  Sacred Heart (7-9) — -0.008
8.  Monmouth (8-8) — -0.041
9. Mount St. Mary’s (5-11) — -0.057
10. St. Francis (PA) (5-11) — -0.065
11. Fairleigh Dickinson (1-15) — -0.185
12. Bryant (1-15) — -0.207

Superlatives:

Best Offense: LIU at 1.13 points per possession
Best Defense: Wagner at 0.89 points allowed per possession
Worst Offense: Fairleigh Dickinson at 0.83 points per possession
Worst Defense: Bryant at 1.12 points allowed per possession
Luckiest: LIU at 2.4 wins above expected
Unluckiest: Quinnipiac at 2.3 wins below expected
Highest Variance: Quinnipiac
Lowest Variance: LIU

I think those last two things are related. (And are important moving forward!)

Three teams have significantly outplayed their pythagorean records: LIU, Monmouth and St. Francis (NY). All three of those teams have won a number of close games in conference this season and I think their coaches have a lot to do with it. On Twitter there’s been a lot of discussion lately about who should be the NEC coach of the year. I think in any other season King Rice would actually have a great argument, but it should come down to Dan Hurley and Glenn Braica. I think the fact that the Terriers have played so well in close conference games is a mark in favor of Braica’s candidacy for the award. It’s worth noting that Quinnipiac is the only NEC that’s “unlucky” by more than a game in conference play. According to Ken Pomeroy the Bobcats are 322nd in luck in the entire nation. That’s a painful way to go through the season.

Tempo-free NEC: Bunching up

After Thursday we’ll be halfway through the NEC schedule. Right now LIU Brooklyn is sitting at the top of the standings, but four teams are tied at 6-2 and waiting for the Blackbirds to slip up. LIU and three of those teams are also bunched up at the top of the tempo-free NEC, which suggests there’s not as much separation between the teams as the Blackbirds’ two-game lead might suggest. We’ll find out coming Thursday when LIU faces another test at Robert Morris.

Continue reading “Tempo-free NEC: Bunching up”