Travel plays a subtle, but important, role in the NCAA tournament. There’s a big difference in taking a bus from Madison, WI to Milwaukee than there is flying from East Lansing, MI to Spokane, WA. Before the Elite 8 tonight I took a moment to see how far those teams have already traveled and which ones will travel the most if they head to the Final Four in Arlington, TX. Continue reading “Travel Among Elite 8 Teams”
Category: Uncategorized
2014 Big East tournament final: Five Keys
Creighton will face Providence at 8:30 PM tonight at Madison Square Garden, and while one of the teams (Providence) is a conference OG — Dave Gavitt, the Big East’s founder, was a coach at Providence; during the conference’s heyday of the mid-1980s, the Friars, under Rick Pitino, made the Final Four — the Bluejays are the newcomer. However, one wouldn’t know this is Creighton’s first Big East tournament by the way their fans travel: the Garden became CenturyLink’s annex, and it will be loud tonight from the influx of Nebraska natives flooding 34th Street.
We’re not conceding the win to Greg McDermott’s squad, though no team has impressed in their conference tournaments more than CU. Doug McDermott has scored 67 points through his first two games, setting a record (previously held by Allen Iverson), and the ‘Jays rang up more than 1.40 points per possession on a very physical, defensive-minded Xavier squad. PC, though, split their two meetings with Creighton in 2014, and it is astonishing what the Friars have been able to accomplish with just six players. Coach Ed Cooley told me when February roles around, PC’s practices rarely last more than an hour, and are light on contact, efforts to keep the team fresh. What can we expect from the new look Big East’s first tournament final?
Do not leave Ethan Wragge.
- The bearded sharpshooter was in a slump entering the Big East tournament, making (a pedestrian for Wragge) 40% of his threes, down from the 49% he had been making during the early Big East slate, but since arriving in NYC, Wragge has been the key to Creighton’s dominance. As well as McDermott has played, Wragge has made 58% of his 3s (seven of twelve), and was unstoppably versus Xavier. The Musketeers’ inability to find Wragge in transition, or not stay glued to his side on picks, contributed to XU’s defeat, and PC needs to shadow — not stay a step away, or have help defense — Wragge all game. Taking away Wragge’s looks helps restrict the spacing Creighton seeks to create.
Providence’s role players are emerging.
- As good as Bryce Cotton, PC’s senior guard, has been this season, the tournament belongs to Josh Fortune and LaDontae Henton. Fortune couldn’t miss against St. John’s, and Henton, an undersized big who is clearly underrated nationally (and within the conference), scored a season-high 26 points. Cotton is such a high-usage player, one who garners a team’s sole defensive attention, and though he is such an exciting player, PC is much more efficient if Friars like Fortune, Henton, Tyler Harris, and Kadeem Batts contribute.
Be physical with the Bluejays.
- Creighton thrives on constant offensive movement. Led by McDermott, who never stops cutting, the team presents a shifting offensive attack. Stillness is stricken from the team’s lexicon, so for a team to hope to slow down CU, they have to do work below the waist. Despite their lack of bench, PC is a very physical team, and will have to bump the Bluejay cutters and make sure there is a bit of contact when guards, or McDermott, come off screens. If Creighton is allowed to move about the halfcourt unimpeded, it could be a very difficult defensive showing for the Friars.
Extra possessions.
- The Friars lead the Big East in offensive rebounding percentage, and Creighton is the second-best defensive rebounding team. Seems like a game between the two would nullify the advantage, right? What will be interesting is if PC’s securing of additional possessions will help them control the tempo. Creighton isn’t a running team — just 65 or so possessions per game — but they crash the defensive glass hard to spark their fast-break: their transition game often helps bury teams with threes. Even if PC isn’t able to convert their second chances, the extra possessions will allow them to slow down the contest.
Watch out for the double screens.
- Before Xavier made their late second half run in last night’s loss, Creighton was up by double digits, a margin that propelled McDermott to insert Zach Hanson into the game. The frosh has barely played this season, but as soon as he entered the game, CU would run the same play four straight times: a staggered screen where McDermott would pop to beyond the three point line and Hanson would dive to the post. The play resulted in three out of four field goal makes, and Creighton loves this play call when McDermott is paired with Will Artino or Wragge. It is arguably the most efficient play in McDermott’s game plan.
UC Irvine 86, Washington 72
Doing a little traveling this week, but basketball season never stops. That’s why I took a trip over to Alaska Airlines Arena on Thursday night to watch Washington take on UC Irvine. Continue reading “UC Irvine 86, Washington 72”
10,000 Sims of the Horizon League
The Horizon League appears to be a two-team race this season between Green Bay and Wright State. The Phoenix have 7’1″ center Alec Brown leading the charge and the Raiders counter with a veteran lineup that appears to have been waiting for an opportunity like this one. Both teams have the potential to be amongst the top 100 in college basketball this season.
Basketball Passport Launches Today
Today Basketball Passport launches to the entire world. I got an opportunity to try out the beta version (adding almost all of last season’s games, plus some of my past favorites) and it’s a ton of fun. You can see the best performances at games you’ve attended and also check out games that other people attended. There are also fun challenges for collecting a certain group of stadiums (think a conference or division). Continue reading “Basketball Passport Launches Today”
How Jameel McKay’s move impacts Marquette
During Big East media day last Wednesday, Marquette coach Buzz Williams was asked about the latest junior college transfer to join his squad. Williams responded that Jameel McKay, the 6’8″ forward, was, “… a runner, jumper [who is] still trying to figure out who he is, and where he is, and what he needs to do.” Reading between the lines of the quote, it is hard to know whether the coach was surprised (or expected) McKay’s announcement the next day, via Twitter, that he planned to transfer from the Big East school.
When I published an article on the most intriguing Big East ‘freshmen’ for Big Apple Buckets, McKay was included because I thought that while the lean big would not be an offensive force, he could become a pivotal presence on the defensive glass. For the past several seasons, including last year’s team, Marquette has underwhelmed when tasked with keeping opponents from hauling in their own misses. Teams grabbed more than 34% of their missed shots in 2013, which translated to easier second offensive possessions (teams converted 45.1% of their twos). Despite the skill displayed on the offensive boards — the team led the Big East in offensive rebound percentage–– it has yet to carry over after defending the bucket for 19 or so seconds.
Contributing to this deficiency is that Williams relies on everybody to crash the glass, not just his bigs. Williams has long stocked his team with “switchables”, players who can slide into several different spots on the floor and are incapable of being defined as a strict positional player. Vander Blue was the only Golden Eagles who used more than 40% of the team’s minutes last season and didn’t have a defensive rebounding percentage greater than 10%. There are two Golden Eagles who don’t vacillate — Davante Gardner and Chris Otule are strictly 5s — but since Williams wants the rebounding responsibility shared amongst each player on the floor, neither Gardner nor Otule have impressive defensive rebounding percentages. They also don’t see the court that often — Gardner only uses a little more than 50% of Marquette’s available minutes — so while Williams will substitute the two bigs for each other, there are often times when the tallest player on the floor last season was Jamil Wilson (who is 6’7″).
Sans McKay, it is likely Marquette will continue to give up a disproportionate amount of defensive boards. McKay was perfectly suited to shine as a rebounding vacuum. His offensive game is too raw to be a big who deserves to be a paint touch each possession, but his speed, athleticism, and length would have earned McKay minutes, just by being a player who could limit opponents to one possession by just skying for rebounds. If McKay had remained at Marquette, his defensive rebound percentage would likely have been one of the league’s best. His speed would have also helped protect the paint, and the combination of his second leap and length would have caused havoc for teams attempting shots close to the bucket.
What is interesting is when Gardner, Otule, and Wilson all exhaust their eligibility after this year. The remaining roster, along with the 2014 recruiting class, tops out at 6’7″ and Williams and his coaching will now have to reevaluate their recruiting targets, a move that would have been unnecessary before last Thursday. There are no available scholarships for the 2014-15 season, and while there is always the possibility a player could transfer — Juan Anderson decided best to change locales this summer before coming back to the school — it is likely Williams will find at least one frontcourt player for MU’s frontcourt next year.
CAA Standings Prediction
Due to realignment the CAA might be one of the toughest conferences in the nation to decipher. I worked with City of Basketball Love’s Josh Verlin on trying to figure out just how the conference might shake out. Here’s what we think. For more on the CAA standings predictions check out COBL. Continue reading “CAA Standings Prediction”
Three Questions: St. John’s and Seton Hall
The Big East holds their first post-realignment media day today, an event usually held on Central Park South that now takes place at Chelsea Piers. While a fair number of the familiar faces will be missed, from Jim Boeheim to Jamie Dixon, the new-look conference still holds a significant amount of the local college spotlight.
St. John’s hasn’t been mentioned as a favorite for the Big East regular season title, but the Red Storm have the most amount of returning talent on the roster and have the potential to spend much of January and February in the conference’s upper echelon. Much of the anticipation surrounding Seton Hall centers around the team’s stellar 2014 recruiting class, but Kevin Willard’s group is finally healthy and possesses the Big East’s best all-around player. In order to better portend what may transpire with both the Johnnies and the Pirates in 2013-14, here are the three questions that are crucial to the success of each squad.
Seton Hall
Who scores other than Fuquan Edwin?
Now entering his final college season, Fuquan Edwin, in my opinion, is the most valuable in the Big East — no other player means more to his squad than the 6’6″ wing. Not only did Edwin lead the Pirates in scoring (16.5 ppg) but his points were built on efficient shooting — 46% from two and 41% from beyond the arc — and he was more aggressive as the offense’s primary option, using screens more frequently while then getting into the lane and drawing nearly two more fouls per 40 minutes. Continuing with the accolades, Edwin is also the conference’s most-effective on-ball defender. Seton Hall should be better than their 2013 record (3-15) indicated — Aaron Cosby and Kyle Smyth are the only two significant players missing from the 2014 roster — but a trio of Pirates need to inherit some of the scoring burden to ensure that record rises. There are two immediate options, one being Eugene Teague, a 6’9″ forward whose improved offseason conditioning — he lost nearly thirty pounds — will allow him to better finish on the block and second-chance possessions (Teague grabbed 12% of Seton Hall’s misses). The other is Patrik Auda, a big who redshirted last season and can stretch the floor and rarely turns the ball over. The key, though, is Brandon Mobley; the junior was oft-injured during Big East play, but his playing style — a wing who can shoot the three but is most effective working without the ball in the paint — complements the offensive skills Edwin, Teague, and the other Pirates bring to the court.
Will Seton Hall continue to rely on threes?
In 2012, roughly 30% of Seton Hall’s points came from three-pointers, but that percentage rose drastically last year (37%, which ranked thirteenth in the nation), and while the Hall were suited to bomb away from beyond the arc — the team made 36.7% of their attempts — they struggled to score when teams failed to stray from the three-point line (or when SHU had an off game). The now departed Smyth and Cosby combined to shoot 38% from three, and since his bigs saw more of the trainer than they did their coach, Willard was forced to depend on long-range shooting. The Hall’s healthy frontcourt means Willard’s offensive gameplan should shift in 2014 as Willard reengineers the offense to cater the Hall’s young true points (Jaren Sina and Sterling Gibbs) while also emphasizing post touches for a svelte Teague and perhaps utilizing more on pick and rolls involving the team’s multiple mobile bigs.
Can the extra inches help the defense?
The most interesting difference between the 2012 and 2013 Seton Hall squads is the disparity in defensive efficiency. While the ’12 team held Big East opponents under one point per possession, the ’13 Pirates struggled mightily to keep points off the board, allowing 1.07 OPPP (one of the conference’s worst rates). Herb Pope and Jordan Theodore were the only Pirates whose eligibility expired in last spring, so what happened? Theodore had a knack for aggressively pressuring ball-handler, and as a tandem, Theodore and Edwin generated countless steals. However, no one filled Theodore’s void and SHU was much less tenacious on the perimeter, which failed to hide the team’s real weakness; their lack of interior size meant allowing countless additional possessions. When any team isn’t forcing turnovers and giving up offensive boards, the OPPP is going to sky-rocket. Edwin will still fly around the court, picking both his man’s pocket while also causing turnovers with his help defense, but SHU’s defensive turnaround starts with the frontcourt, specifically the return of Mobley, Auda, Teague, and a now bulky Aaron Geramipoor.
St. John’s
What is Chris Obekpa’s impact in year two?
Judging by the minutes Steve Lavin doled out during St. John’s European trip, sophomore Chris Obekpa may come off the bench in 2013-14. While some may consider such a move shocking — how can a player, who blocked over 15% of opponents’ attempts, sit? — Obekpa was extremely limited on offense a year ago. The 6’9″ Obekpa had the lowest offensive rating of any Johnny that used more than 50 percent of the team’s minutes, and his range was essentially the space immediately surrounding the hoop. His main offseason goal had to center around developing any sort of post offense. St. John’s lacked a player capable of finishing on the block in 2013, and while Orlando Sanchez and God’sgift Achiuwa both have that potential to provide that balance, Obekpa needs at least one low-post counter move. Even if he continues to struggle scoring against Big East frontcourts, Lavin will still play him — he provides an instant impact on defense — but since SJU’s offense was truly stagnant in 2013, Obekpa needs to provide (and not just take away) points.
How many minutes will Rysheed Jordan use?
The addition of Rysheed Jordan allows Steve Lavin an option he has not had since he landed that monster recruiting class in 2011: he can now play both Jamal Branch and D’Angelo Harrison off the ball. Jordan’s supreme athleticism means he can go away from SJU screens and still get to the rim. Jordan’s game is built for north to south penetration, and all five sets of eyeballs will focus on Jordan when he steps on to the court (according to ESPN’s Fran Fraschilla, Jordan is “…good enough to start yesterday.” While both juniors have various isolation moves, and can create their own offense, they often need a pick to turn the corner on a defender, while Jordan’s presence will draw defenders from both guards (and the other Johnnies) and create openings that didn’t exist a year ago.
Does St. John’s need JaKarr Sampson to take jumpshots?
In late August, I wondered whether St. John’s would continue to take a high volume of two-point field goals — only one other DI team depended as heavily on generating offense off twos as SJU, and the Red Storm attempted 269 shots from between 17 feet and the three-point line (and made just 35% of those shots). ESPN’s John Gasaway recently wondered the same question, and asked Lavin if his players would continue to attempt those high-risk (but low-benefit) shots? According to Lavin, “The numbers that you’re looking at? They’re going to change … [and] it will be because we finally have some balance, including a perimeter attack … finishing at the rim was a challenge for our guys, and so was perimeter shooting, as you’ve indicated. Numbers aren’t going to drive or dictate everything you do, but they sure are a reflection of the strengths and weaknesses of your team. That’s what you saw with us last year.” What is intriguing about Lavin’s answer is that Sampson, when I spoke with him a few weeks ago, was fairly certain he’ll expand his jump-shooting repertoire this season. “I improved my range a lot this year and you’ll definitely see me make a lot more threes this year,” he said, adding that his main focus is still attacking the rim off the bounce. The arrival of Sanchez (and the return of Achiuwa) means Sampson will likely be used more as a 3 (he was most often placed at the 4 a year ago), so the opportunity is there for Sampson to take more two-point jump shots, but is that needed? Sampson and Jordan are the two Johnnies best able to get to the rim and finish, and with the potential openings Jordan (and Max Hooper) can create, Lavin needs Sampson to focus on converting around the bucket and getting to the free throw line.
Matt Giles is a reporter for New York Magazine and has contributed to College Basketball Prospectus 2012-13, ESPN the Magazine, ESPN Insider, the New York Times, BuzzFeed, and Salon. You can follow Matt on Twitter @HudsonGiles.
Big East Breakout Candidates in 2013-14
It was difficult to winnow down the possibilities for breakthrough candidates in the new-look Big East. The conference is stocked with teams that lost crucial elements of their roster following last season, and since there is no definitive favorite for the preseason title, there are countless players whose roles could substantially shift. One key, though, was limiting the list to those who have used one season of playing time, even if that player was redshirting and the PT was spent on the practice squad.
Daniel Ochefu (Villanova): Though Mouphtaou Yarou never truly developed into a dominant offensive threat, the 6’10” Yarou did evolve into a fantastic defender. A reason why Villanova made the NCAA tournament last season was their miniscule defensive two-point field goal percentage, fueled by Yarou’s ability to shrink the interior and force opposing bigs to take off-balanced shots. Without Yarou and Maurice Sutton, the defensive onus now falls on Daniel Ochefu — the sophomore is the only returning member of the Wildcats’ frontcourt. Jay Wright’s squad showed success using hard hedges to disrupt an opponent’s offense. Ochefu has demonstrated the necessary foot speed to show high and then quickly get back to his man to prevent an easy bucket, but he will now have to combine that footwork with crashing the glass to prevent second chances (Yarou grabbed more than 20% of opponents’ misses). Nova’s offense should click this season — the improvement of Ryan Archidiacano mixed with Dylan Ennis, a guard capable of breaking defenders down off the dribble, bodes well for VU’s offensive efficiency — but Ochefu’s play (and his 4.7% block rate) will be crucial to anchor the squad’s frontcourt and frustrate Big East teams in the paint.
Matt Stainbrook (Xavier): When Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons ran Xavier’s offense, the two guards heavily relied on Musketeer bigs to set picks and create clear looks (and lanes) at the basket. Nearly 15% of Xavier’s 2012 offensive sets were pick and rolls, a percentage that dipped below ten percent due to the arrival of Semaj Christon, a 6’3″ guard with a quick enough first step that he didn’t need a pick to turn the corner on a defender. However, now that Matt Stainbrook, a Western Michigan transfer, is eligible, Xavier’s offense could resume relying on P&Rs. When he last took the court, Stainbrook converted almost 60% of his twos, posting an offensive rating of 114, and the 6’9″ Stainbrook spent his redshirt season working on his game and slimming down his body. The combination of Stainbrook’s soft touch and conditioning indicates that Stainbrook-set picks on Christon’s defender might be commonplace at the Cintas Center next season. Even if he doesn’t receive a pass, the rolling Stainbrook would be in ideal position for offensive boards, and the big scores more than one point per second chance possession. An added bonus is Christon’s ability to draw fouls at a rapid pace when he gets into the lane — the guard drew 5.8 fouls per 40 minutes, a rate that is tops of any returning Big East guard.
Jamal Branch (St. John’s): It is unclear how Steve Lavin will organize his lineups this season, but he has mentioned two potential possibilities: using three guards — Rysheed Jordan, Jamal Branch, and D’Angelo Harrison — and a Johnny like Max Hooper at the 4, or going ‘big’ and taking advantage of SJU’s frontcourt depth. Branch, a junior guard, will be a key element in either lineup. It is unfair to evaluate Branch’s sophomore season — he didn’t take the court until after the first semester and he was clearly limited following an MCL sprain in early February. Branch is best when creating, getting into the lane and either locating open Johnnies, and based on how he performed during the team’s European trip, Branch’s offensive orchestration will allow further freedom to both Harrison and Jordan.
Sterling Gibbs (Seton Hall): The loss of Aaron Cosby was predicted weeks before the end of Seton Hall’s 2013 season, but coach Kevin Willard had a waiting starter in Sterling Gibbs, a transfer who is eligible this season. What is uncertain is how seamlessly Gibbs, who barely saw playing time at Texas, handles both the starting role and the Pirates’ offense. Seton Hall returns a talented core — Fuquan Edwin is a potential player of the year candidate, and Willard can lean on a better in-shape Eugene Teague and now-healthy Brandon Mobley – which will lessen Gibbs’ scoring responsibility and allow him to solely focus on playmaking. But Gibbs isn’t offensively inept, and his shooting will force opponents from sagging off the 6’1″ guard: although he only attempted 35 threes in the Big 12, Gibbs made 37.1% of those shots.
Myles Davis (Xavier): If Christon and Stainbrook are both covered on the drive and the roll, one potential outlet for Christon will be Myles Davis. The redshirt freshman entered college with a reputation as a shooter and has reportedly worked on his shot and his conditioning last season, giving coach Chris Mack the option to utilize a three-guard lineup (with Dee Davis) in 2014. Despite the presence of Brad Redford, Xavier was not proficient from deep; Redford, whose eligibility has since expired, was the only Musketeer to attempt more than 100 threes, and though Davis showed improved range (his percentage — 37% — jumped significantly over the course of two seasons), the team rarely relied on three-pointers. That could change with Davis’ arrival.
Derrick Wilson (Marquette): Marquette would be the runaway preseason top pick in the Big East absent a glaring unknown at the point guard spot. Junior Cadougan wasn’t perfect — an offensive rating of 96.1 and a penchant for turnovers aren’t ideal for a team’s starting point — but the departed Cadougan possessed an innate understanding of Buzz Wiliams’ offense. Williams is loathe to play freshmen immediately, so even though the Golden Eagles have a top-ranking group of frosh, including guard Duane Wilson, the task of replacing Cadougan will fall to Derrick Wilson. Wilson’s sample size is small — he barely played during his first two seasons at MU — but if he can continue to limit turnovers (an assist rate of just 3% during Big East and postseason play), Williams will likely turn to Wilson to direct MU’s interior-heavy attack — nearly 30% of the squad’s offense in 2013 came as a result of paint touches.
D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera (Georgetown): Expect the role of D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera, a sophomore guard, to expand greatly since coach John Thompson III needs to find another Hoya to pair with Markel Starks. Smith-Rivera thrived as an additional option last year, serving as highly efficient alternative when defenses focused on Starks or Otto Porter, but without Porter or Greg Whittington, a forward who tore his ACL this offseason and could likely miss the entire season, Smith-Rivera continued evolution as a scorer is imperative. As evidenced by his percentage of field goals assisted at the rim — 56% — Smith-Rivera is capable of creating his own offense, and there could be more set plays involving Smith-Rivera coming off screens or using a pick to either shoot from deep (34%), drive to the bucket, or put an onus on defenders to foul. One indication Smith-Rivera is ready for the extra touches was Georgetown’s mid-February win over DePaul, a game where Porter only played 20 minutes and the 6’5″ Smith-Rivera scored 33 points in an offensively dominant display.
Kris Dunn (Providence): Vincent Council was arguably the most underrated point guard in the BCS conference ranks last season. If the Friars are indeed this season’s emerging contender (as most have pegged Ed Cooley’s team), sophomore Kris Dunn has to undergo a tremendous leap in his development. Though Dunn struggled with turnovers, an invitation to the trials for the U19 World Championship Team might serve to boost the guard’s performance (and confidence). Dunn did record 41 assists in conference play and his now seasoned ability to find Friars the moment they shake free from their defender could raise last season’s mundane offensive efficiency rating. The team’s core — Kadeem Batts, Bryce Cotton, and LaDontae Henton — were reliant on Council to find the trio in scoring position, a duty Dunn must quickly master. An intriguing aspect of Dunn’s game, and one worth watching, is his rebounding — at 6’3″, Dunn has an advantage on the interior, and since Cotton typically bombs away from the perimeter, Dunn is free to troll for rebounds — roughly 10% of his possessions ended with an second chance opportunity — and not worry about preventing a fast-break.
Will Artino (Creighton): The big has so far spent his time in Omaha camped on the interior, grabbing a copious amount of rebounds in his very limited minutes, but the departure of Gregory Echenique means an expanded role for Will Artino. He’ll still have to crash the glass — coach Greg McDermott has said his lineup choices will largely depend on how the Bluejays rebound, and Artino, who sported offensive and defensive rebounding percentages that hovered around 20% last season, will likely be a focal point in those lineups — but Artino’s interior defense and pick-setting will be crucial for the squad. Other than Artino, Doug McDermott is the only returning Bluejay who is taller than 6’8″.
Kameron Woods (Butler): The offseason injury to Roosevelt Jones forces new coach Brandon Miller to depend on other Bulldogs to carry Jones’ expected offensive load, and Woods, a 6’8″ junior, is primed to receive more touches. Entering a college-level strength and conditioning program has greatly helped the big; while his percentage of minutes played hasn’t changed much over the course of Woods’ two seasons, there have been drastic jumps in both his offensive rating (105.2) and two-point field goal percentage (55.8%). Woods is much more confident catching the ball in the paint and finishing — he scored more than one point per offensive rebound and pick and roll possession last season — and shied away from taking ill-advised threes.
Matt Giles is a reporter for New York Magazine and has contributed to College Basketball Prospectus 2012-13, ESPN the Magazine, ESPN Insider, the New York Times, BuzzFeed, and Salon. You can follow Matt on Twitter @HudsonGiles.
Nine Takeaways from the Atlantic 10’s Media Day
The Atlantic 10 held its annual media day on Tuesday, and for the second straight year, beat and national reporters met the conference’s thirteen head coaches at the Barclays Center, home of the Brooklyn Nets, Jay Z (though he sold his stake in the team, the arena will forever be associated with the rapper from 560 State Street), and the A10’s postseason tournament.
Despite the loss of Xavier and Temple (to the Big East and the American Athletic Conference, respectively), the A10 is still one of the nation’s top conferences, a league that boasts potential NCAA tournament participants like VCU, Saint Louis, and La Salle (and it’s foolish to discount the possibility that Massachusetts, Rhode Island, or George Mason also crack the field).
After speaking with nearly all of the coaches, below are several media day takeaways, and analysis of certain gameplan changes, personnel alterations, and expectations for the 2013-14 season.
Has George Mason been overlooked?
Paul Hewitt’s squad returns nearly 90 percent of the previous team’s minutes played, yet the Patriots were picked to finish eighth in the conference’s preseason poll. Fresh off an appearance in the College Basketball Invitational final, the Patriots have the potential to break into the league’s upper echelon. The squad’s top four scorers are back, and that doesn’t include Patrick Holloway, a then-freshman guard who showed a soft touch from deep (34%, and one of only two Patriots to attempt more than 100 threes), or Erik Copes, a once highly-regarded recruit who became more of an offensive presence on the block (while also dealing with lingering health issues) in ’13 . “There are some people [in the Atlantic 10] that don’t know them well,” says George Washington coach Mike Lonergan, “but I know their roster. They are a good team with a lot of seniors who are built for this year and can step right in. Their talent level is very high.” A key for Mason will be the continued pressure Sherrod Wright puts on opposing defenses. The guard, who was named to the preseason all-second team, drastically altered his game last season; while he was still a three-point threat (35%), nearly 15% of his possessions were isolation plays. This allowed Wright to frequently get into the lane and either convert in traffic or get to the free throw line — he drew more than six fouls per 40 minutes, attempting 233 free throws, which was more than his first two seasons combined.
Is there a leadership vacuum at Saint Louis?
While losing Kwamain Mitchell deprives Saint Louis of a seasoned ball-handler, the more significant departure may be Cody Ellis. The Australian big was known for his three-point shooting, but he was a phenomenal help defender; he limited his own fouls (roughly three per 40 minutes) while frequently drawing charges that would sap an opponent’s momentum. He was also a leader on the bench and court, and despite returning a senior-laden squad, coach Jim Crews isn’t sure who will rise to the occasion during that first practice after a frustrating loss. “It’s an enigma,” Crews says. “While we want everyone to lead as a team, we do put a demand on certain guys but we haven’t seen it yet and can’t explain it.” Rick Majerus recruited and taught the core — Dwayne Evans, Mike McCall, Rob Loe, and Jordair Jett — so while this may not be a pressing issue this season, it will be an interest when Crews faces his first rebuilding season in 2014-15.
Archie Miller’s two-pronged offensive approach
Dayton coach Archie Miller believes in the importance of offensive rebounds. The Flyers grabbed more than 35 percent of their missed shots during Miller’s first two seasons (a mark bested by only one other A10 team), but the coach stresses the 2014 squad will be his best rebounding team. “From a physical standpoint, we have a lot of different guys who can get inside and crash the offensive glass,” notes Miller. “We have a lot of guys who play big.” One of those is Dyshawn Pierre, who can slide between the small and power forward slots (when Miller uses a three-guard lineup) this season. The other three bigs whose focus will seldom stray from the offensive glass are Devin Oliver (who gained 30 pounds during the offseason), Matt Kavanaugh (who missed last year following a suspension for violating the school’s code of conduct), and Jalen Robinson, a 6-foot-9 sophomore who could be UD’s breakout player (in very limited minutes, his offensive rebounding percentage led the team). The interior work will, in turn, boost Dayton’s free throw attempts, the squad’s bugbear a year ago. Since departed Kevin Dillard was the only Flyer to take more than 100 free throws, Miller insists UD needs to get to the stripe: “How we play is really going to be about getting to the foul line, which, if we are doing our job, we should be there a lot.”
Chris Mooney’s height infusion
Chris Mooney’s Richmond squads are Dayton’s polar opposite. The Spiders eternally struggle to both secure and prevent additional possessions, and while Mooney isn’t going to alter his gameplan because his previous teams’ rebounding woes, he will benefit from the additional size Richmond’s frontcourt possesses in 2014. “We won’t sacrifice our ability to shoot and handle the ball,” claims Mooney, “but our big guys are so versatile, we can play more big lineups which will help our rebounding.” Alonzo Nelson-Ododa, a 6’9″ sophomore, will haul in a greater percentage of opponents’ misses with additional playing time, and also lessen the defensive burden of Derrick Williams — Nelson-Ododa was named to the A10’s preseason all-defensive team and excels using his athleticism and keen sense of timing to swat countless shots. The standout member of Richmond’s retooled frontcourt is Terry Allen, who Mooney effusively praised throughout media day. “For a guy his size [6’8″], Terry is an incredible ballhandler. He is going to be great player.” Allen used less than one-third of Richmond’s minutes, but grabbed an impressive 23% of opponents’ misses, and transformed himself this summer. “Terry combines versatility and strength, and he can score in many different ways,” says Mooney. If these sophomore bigs (along with Deion Taylor) can make UR competitive on the boards, the offensive balance may begin to tilt to the interior.
George Washington is primed for a leap
Want an Atlantic 10 dark horse contender other than Rhode Island? George Washington, a team picked to finish at the league’s bottom, has the potential for a breakthrough season. GW’s frosh quartet — Kevin Larsen, Patricio Garino, Kethan Savage, and Joe McDonald — used 45% of the team’s minutes, and combined with Isaiah Armwood and Indiana transfer Maurice Creek (a senior and grad student, respectively), coach Mike Lonergan has a weathered returning core that lost five A10 games by single digits a year ago. So how do the Colonials exceed expectations? One key is Larsen and Creek avoiding prolonged stays in the trainer’s room. “We can’t shoot much worse than last year,” Lonergan says, “and if Mo can stay healthy, it gives us another veteran who can shoot.” Larsen had a standout freshman year, but he was easily winded, the result of a preseason injury that caused him to put on weight last fall. “Kevin is in much better shape this year — he lost 18 pounds,” notes Lonergan. “His conditioning will make him a better rebounder, and I tell our guys that Kevin needs to get a touch every time because he has a good touch and is our best passer.” Lonergan admits GW will shy away from three-point attempts because their offensive strength is in the paint, but he does envision pairing Larsen and Creek on the same side of the court together: “Mo will draw defensive attention and teams will finally have to go over the top of our high motion offense.”
Is there space in Rhode Island’s crowded frontcourt?
Dan Hurley’s squad is arguably the Atlantic 10’s most physically imposing team. Four Rams stand 6’8″ or taller, and that is not including freshman Hassan Martin, who might spend much of his first Rhody season tethered to the bench. “We have several forwards who we feel can play the 4 or the 5 and be very productive,” claims Hurley. “We couldn’t say that last year.” A familiarity with Hurley’s system helps these bigs; Jordan Hare and Mike Aaman earned immediate minutes last season, Ifeanyi Onyekaba sat out but practiced with the squad, and Gilvydas Biruta, who also sat out and practiced, played under Hurley at St. Benedict’s. Even Hurley commented on the ease with which drills began in late September, joking, “Dealing with me every day now in practice isn’t a cold shower.” It remains to be seen which of the four will earn the majority of minutes — Hurley mentioned that while Onyekaba has been the best forward in practice the last several days, the other three have evolved offensive tools and offer URI’s backcourt a target in the post. Aaman could be the first to emerge because of his rebounding prowess; Aaman was the only Rhody to grab more than 10% of the squad’s misses and proved difficult to move once he camped in the lane. Hurley’s forceful inflection when discussing Aaman indicates the soph’s worth to the team: “Mike could only score over his right shoulder last year, but now he has a counter and can score over either. He’s also added 20 pounds while lowering his body fat so he is a valuable guy who should be ready to contribute in a very competitive position.”
Ronald Roberts’ new role
Ronald Roberts has appeared on too many highlight reels to be a breakout candidate, but the forward is going to have to tweak his game entering his senior season to account for the losses of C.J. Aiken and Carl Jones. Roberts only used 19% of Saint Joseph’s attempts in 2013, and teammate Langston Galloway needs help shouldering the scoring burden. Coach Phil Martelli has described Galloway’s game as beating the opponent softly, but Roberts’ skill set is anything but Downy. “During one of our games last year,” recalls VCU coach Shaka Smart, “Ron threw Juvonte [Reddic] out of the way and took the rebound from him.” Roberts’ aggressiveness is a byproduct of his length and core muscles, wrestling away rebounds from opponents for put backs, and while his appears hefty — Roberts’ body looks like muscles begat muscles — he can glide through the air, hanging longer than other players for dunks. Roberts won’t become a perimeter force, but as Chris Wilson told Josh Verlin of City of Basketball Love, the team expects to play at a faster pace this season, which will yield further transition opportunities for Roberts, not to mention sets that feature Roberts catching the ball while taking a dribble or two towards the rim (such as pick and roll or cut plays).
The continued maturation of Ryan Canty
One of the league’s biggest surprises was Ryan Canty. The 6’9″ Canty struggled to stay on the floor — seven fouls per 40 minutes — but when he was in the game, he was an extremely efficient rebounder, possessing a top 25 Ken Pomeroy ranking for both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. But coach Tom Pecora still doesn’t know if he can depend on Canty as a regular contributor and not a player who, as Pecora explains, “…has the mindset of a defensive end.” When discussing the junior’s game, Pecora is very explicit in what he wants Canty to accomplish this season: “He has to be a guy who can make free throws, defend the post, set screens, and continue to come flying in from the high post to blow up plays and grab an offensive rebound.” Canty spent the summer refining his footwork but Pecora doesn’t think he will subsume Chris Gaston’s post possessions because he is still prone to turnovers and, as Pecora notes, “He gets so revved up and he has to realize early in game, you may have to give up a layup or take a charge instead of take every big time play, but that is a maturation thing.”
Massachusetts increases the pace
When coaches mention they want to play fast in the upcoming season, it typically doesn’t happen. Those magic words — “we are going to get up and down the court” — excite the fan base and help in recruiting, but by the time conference play begins, those teams are grinding out possessions. However, when the coach of a team like Massachusetts says he wants to increase the pace, it is noteworthy because Derek Kellogg has built his UMass squad into a transition-happy group. During the past five seasons, the 2013 team tied for the least possessions used per conference game, and Kellogg wants to force opponents on their heels again. “I wasn’t able to get the game going as fast as I wanted to last year,” explains Kellogg. “The league had a lot better guard play, but we are going to try to get our press going quicker and faster so we get as many possessions as I like to play with.” For Kellogg, that means urging his players to crash the defensive glass, something that didn’t often happen in 2013. “My big guys are in better shape this year, and I am going to make Sampson [Carter], Maxie [Esho], and Raphiael [Putney] actually go to the glass this year,” he says. Kellogg also insists his guards, including sub-6′ Chaz Williams and Western Kentucky transfer Derrick Gordon, who Kellogg claims is the team’s second best rebounder in practice, will sky for boards, which should help jumpstart the Minutemen’s break.
Matt Giles is a reporter for New York Magazine and has contributed to College Basketball Prospectus 2012-13, ESPN the Magazine, ESPN Insider, the New York Times, BuzzFeed, and Salon. You can follow Matt on Twitter @HudsonGiles.

