Category: Seton Hall

Big East Breakout Candidates in 2013-14

It was difficult to winnow down the possibilities for breakthrough candidates in the new-look Big East. The conference is stocked with teams that lost crucial elements of their roster following last season, and since there is no definitive favorite for the preseason title, there are countless players whose roles could substantially shift. One key, though, was limiting the list to those who have used one season of playing time, even if that player was redshirting and the PT was spent on the practice squad.

Daniel Ochefu (Villanova): Though Mouphtaou Yarou never truly developed into a dominant offensive threat, the 6’10” Yarou did evolve into a fantastic defender. A reason why Villanova made the NCAA tournament last season was their miniscule defensive two-point field goal percentage, fueled by Yarou’s ability to shrink the interior and force opposing bigs to take off-balanced shots. Without Yarou and Maurice Sutton, the defensive onus now falls on Daniel Ochefu — the sophomore is the only returning member of the Wildcats’ frontcourt. Jay Wright’s squad showed success using hard hedges to disrupt an opponent’s offense. Ochefu has demonstrated the necessary foot speed to show high and then quickly get back to his man to prevent an easy bucket, but he will now have to combine that footwork with crashing the glass to prevent second chances (Yarou grabbed more than 20% of opponents’ misses). Nova’s offense should click this season — the improvement of Ryan Archidiacano mixed with Dylan Ennis, a guard capable of breaking defenders down off the dribble, bodes well for VU’s offensive efficiency — but Ochefu’s play (and his 4.7% block rate) will be crucial to anchor the squad’s frontcourt and frustrate Big East teams in the paint.

Matt Stainbrook (Xavier): When Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons ran Xavier’s offense, the two guards heavily relied on Musketeer bigs to set picks and create clear looks (and lanes) at the basket. Nearly 15% of Xavier’s 2012 offensive sets were pick and rolls, a percentage that dipped below ten percent due to the arrival of Semaj Christon, a 6’3″ guard with a quick enough first step that he didn’t need a pick to turn the corner on a defender. However, now that Matt Stainbrook, a Western Michigan transfer, is eligible, Xavier’s offense could resume relying on P&Rs. When he last took the court, Stainbrook converted almost 60% of his twos, posting an offensive rating of 114, and the 6’9″ Stainbrook spent his redshirt season working on his game and slimming down his body. The combination of Stainbrook’s soft touch and conditioning indicates that Stainbrook-set picks on Christon’s defender might be commonplace at the Cintas Center next season. Even if he doesn’t receive a pass, the rolling Stainbrook would be in ideal position for offensive boards, and the big scores more than one point per second chance possession. An added bonus is Christon’s ability to draw fouls at a rapid pace when he gets into the lane — the guard drew 5.8 fouls per 40 minutes, a rate that is tops of any returning Big East guard.

Jamal Branch (St. John’s): It is unclear how Steve Lavin will organize his lineups this season, but he has mentioned two potential possibilities: using three guards — Rysheed Jordan, Jamal Branch, and D’Angelo Harrison — and a Johnny like Max Hooper at the 4, or going ‘big’ and taking advantage of SJU’s frontcourt depth. Branch, a junior guard, will be a key element in either lineup. It is unfair to evaluate Branch’s sophomore season — he didn’t take the court until after the first semester and he was clearly limited following an MCL sprain in early February. Branch is best when creating, getting into the lane and either locating open Johnnies, and based on how he performed during the team’s European trip, Branch’s offensive orchestration will allow further freedom to both Harrison and Jordan.

Sterling Gibbs (Seton Hall): The loss of Aaron Cosby was predicted weeks before the end of Seton Hall’s 2013 season, but coach Kevin Willard had a waiting starter in Sterling Gibbs, a transfer who is eligible this season. What is uncertain is how seamlessly Gibbs, who barely saw playing time at Texas, handles both the starting role and the Pirates’ offense. Seton Hall returns a talented core — Fuquan Edwin is a potential player of the year candidate, and Willard can lean on a better in-shape Eugene Teague and now-healthy Brandon Mobley – which will lessen Gibbs’ scoring responsibility and allow him to solely focus on playmaking. But Gibbs isn’t offensively inept, and his shooting will force opponents from sagging off the 6’1″ guard: although he only attempted 35 threes in the Big 12, Gibbs made 37.1% of those shots.

Myles Davis (Xavier): If Christon and Stainbrook are both covered on the drive and the roll, one potential outlet for Christon will be Myles Davis. The redshirt freshman entered college with a reputation as a shooter and has reportedly worked on his shot and his conditioning last season, giving coach Chris Mack the option to utilize a three-guard lineup (with Dee Davis) in 2014. Despite the presence of Brad Redford, Xavier was not proficient from deep; Redford, whose eligibility has since expired, was the only Musketeer to attempt more than 100 threes, and though Davis showed improved range (his percentage — 37% — jumped significantly over the course of two seasons), the team rarely relied on three-pointers. That could change with Davis’ arrival.

Derrick Wilson (Marquette): Marquette would be the runaway preseason top pick in the Big East absent a glaring unknown at the point guard spot. Junior Cadougan wasn’t perfect — an offensive rating of 96.1 and a penchant for turnovers aren’t ideal for a team’s starting point — but the departed Cadougan possessed an innate understanding of Buzz Wiliams’ offense. Williams is loathe to play freshmen immediately, so even though the Golden Eagles have a top-ranking group of frosh, including guard Duane Wilson, the task of replacing Cadougan will fall to Derrick Wilson. Wilson’s sample size is small — he barely played during his first two seasons at MU — but if he can continue to limit turnovers (an assist rate of just 3% during Big East and postseason play), Williams will likely turn to Wilson to direct MU’s interior-heavy attack — nearly 30% of the squad’s offense in 2013 came as a result of paint touches.

D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera (Georgetown): Expect the role of D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera, a sophomore guard, to expand greatly since coach John Thompson III needs to find another Hoya to pair with Markel Starks. Smith-Rivera thrived as an additional option last year, serving as highly efficient alternative when defenses focused on Starks or Otto Porter, but without Porter or Greg Whittington, a forward who tore his ACL this offseason and could likely miss the entire season, Smith-Rivera continued evolution as a scorer is imperative. As evidenced by his percentage of field goals assisted at the rim — 56% — Smith-Rivera is capable of creating his own offense, and there could be more set plays involving Smith-Rivera coming off screens or using a pick to either shoot from deep (34%), drive to the bucket, or put an onus on defenders to foul. One indication Smith-Rivera is ready for the extra touches was Georgetown’s mid-February win over DePaul, a game where Porter only played 20 minutes and the 6’5″ Smith-Rivera scored 33 points in an offensively dominant display.

Kris Dunn (Providence): Vincent Council was arguably the most underrated point guard in the BCS conference ranks last season. If the Friars are indeed this season’s emerging contender (as most have pegged Ed Cooley’s team), sophomore Kris Dunn has to undergo a tremendous leap in his development. Though Dunn struggled with turnovers, an invitation to the trials for the U19 World Championship Team might serve to boost the guard’s performance (and confidence). Dunn did record 41 assists in conference play and his now seasoned ability to find Friars the moment they shake free from their defender could raise last season’s mundane offensive efficiency rating. The team’s core — Kadeem Batts, Bryce Cotton, and LaDontae Henton — were reliant on Council to find the trio in scoring position, a duty Dunn must quickly master. An intriguing aspect of Dunn’s game, and one worth watching, is his rebounding — at 6’3″, Dunn has an advantage on the interior, and since Cotton typically bombs away from the perimeter, Dunn is free to troll for rebounds — roughly 10% of his possessions ended with an second chance opportunity — and not worry about preventing a fast-break.

Will Artino (Creighton): The big has so far spent his time in Omaha camped on the interior, grabbing a copious amount of rebounds in his very limited minutes, but the departure of Gregory Echenique means an expanded role for Will Artino. He’ll still have to crash the glass — coach Greg McDermott has said his lineup choices will largely depend on how the Bluejays rebound, and Artino, who sported offensive and defensive rebounding percentages that hovered around 20% last season, will likely be a focal point in those lineups — but Artino’s interior defense and pick-setting will be crucial for the squad. Other than Artino, Doug McDermott is the only returning Bluejay who is taller than 6’8″.

Kameron Woods (Butler): The offseason injury to Roosevelt Jones forces new coach Brandon Miller to depend on other Bulldogs to carry Jones’ expected offensive load, and Woods, a 6’8″ junior, is primed to receive more touches. Entering a college-level strength and conditioning program has greatly helped the big; while his percentage of minutes played hasn’t changed much over the course of Woods’ two seasons, there have been drastic jumps in both his offensive rating (105.2) and two-point field goal percentage (55.8%). Woods is much more confident catching the ball in the paint and finishing — he scored more than one point per offensive rebound and pick and roll possession last season — and shied away from taking ill-advised threes.

Matt Giles is a reporter for New York Magazine and has contributed to College Basketball Prospectus 2012-13, ESPN the Magazine, ESPN Insider, the New York Times, BuzzFeed, and Salon. You can follow Matt on Twitter @HudsonGiles.

Nine Big East Rookies to Watch in 2013-14

The Big East’s 2013 recruiting class was one that emphasized transition. Schools targeted prospects that would be the backbone of each team’s core for the next few seasons. None of these players will be ready to leave their college campuses for the professional ranks after their freshmen campaigns, but all nine should be focal points the moment the season tips in November.

Rysheed Jordan, St. John’s: Despite the return of both Jamal Branch and D’Angelo Harrison (suspended from the team in early March, Harrison will accompany the squad on their mid-August overseas trip and will likely suit up for the Red Storm in 2013-14), coach Steve Lavin’s recruiting priority was a point guard. Sir’Dominic Pointer, a 6’5″ wing, was the only SJU player last season to use more than 60 percent of the team’s minutes and record an assist rate over 20 percent, and though Lavin may be loathe to entrust a freshman with distribution duties, Harrison must further his transition to a combo guard to end SJU’s offensive stagnation – the squad finished with a record above .500 but posted an in-conference offensive rating of 91.8. St. John’s needs a guard who can forego his own scoring impulses and concentrate on running the squad’s offensive gameplan. Jordan’s arrival should move Phil Greene IV to the bench, and since Lavin often allows his perimeter players freedom to display their natural attributes, the 6’3″ Jordan could thrive in a role where his propensity for north-to-south drives creates openings for his Red Storm ‘mates (and hopefully then boosts the team’s cellar-scraping assist rate).

Jaren Sina, Seton Hall: Critics of coach Kevin Willard’s recruiting abilities were slightly quieted when Jaren Sina chose Seton Hall, ending a recruitment that had earlier resulted in commitments to Alabama and Northwestern. Along with Texas transfer Sterling Gibbs, who is eligible this season, Sina will immediately slide into the Pirates’ starting lineup. The team was beset by personnel losses during the offseason – Kevin Johnson and starting point guard Aaron Cosby, along with two assistants, departed for other programs – so Sina’s offense, particularly his reputed long-range shooting, will help lessen Fuquan Edwin’s scoring burden (the wing attempted roughly 32 percent of the team’s shots in 2013). Sina’s true strength, however, is operating within the half-court; the ease he displays with the ball in his hands should reverse SHU’s troubling propensity for turnovers, and his skill of finding teammates the exact moment they have an open look will ensure fewer frustrating SHU possessions. Other than the frontcourt duo of Eugene Teague and Brandon Mobley, two bigs who depended on paint touches for much of their offense, Kyle Smyth (who has since moved on from South Orange) was the only Pirate to receive an assist on more than 40 percent of his two-point field goals (per Hoop-Math.com), a clear indication the squad had trouble freeing themselves of their defenders.

Isaiah Zierden, Creighton: A redshirt freshman, Zierden probably should not be included on a list of true first-year players, but the Bluejays will depend heavily on Zierden’s perimeter touch. While Doug McDermott continues to progress as a stretch-4, the rising senior still lives offensively on the low post: according to Synergy Sports Technology, more than a third of McDermott’s offensive possessions were post ups in both 2012 and ’13. The team may miss Gregory Echenique’s rebounding percentages and two-point field goal rate (65 percent a year ago), but Creighton’s possessions stalled when the ball was entered to Echenique. McDermott, however, has become a skilled distributor from the block – 83 percent of his passes from the post went to Creighton’s shooters, who converted 1.2 points per McDermott assist (up from .80 points during McDermott’s sophomore year) – and his deft touch is why coach Gregg McDermott often positions Grant Gibbs on McDermott’s side of the court, which is also how coach McDermott may choose to use Zierden. Creighton is one of the nation’s top three-point shooting squads – what other team returns four players who all converted more than 36 percent of their threes? – and now adds a guard that ESPN’s Dave Telep has described as the epitome of a zone buster. Last summer, Drew Cannon (then of Basketball Prospectus) analyzed statistics from Zierden’s pre-college stint in the EYBL and noted only two other future DI prospects connected on more threes than Zierden. He’ll still likely come off the bench, since Creighton has a fairly deep backcourt, but his redshirt year has also reportedly bolstered his defense, an enhanced skill which might lead to more playing time.

Brandon Austin, Providence: Brandon Austin may go unmentioned in future clips heralding Providence’s recruiting renaissance under Ed Cooley – along with his staff, Cooley has landed Kris Dunn (a guard ready for a sophomore leap), Jalen Lindsey (a high-ranking 2014 commit), and potentially poised to gain Abdul Malik Abu and Jared Terrell (if there is any truth to the rumor of a recruiting package) – but Austin, a 6’6″ wing who initially committed to Penn State, should be a valuable offensive contributor in PC’s backcourt. The eligibility of Tyler Harris and Carson Desrosiers means Cooley can use a size-laden lineup, but Austin’s presence also allows Cooley to continue playing small. His stature presents match-up problems in the half court, ably demonstrated by this dunk over former high school teammate (and current PSU commit) Mike Watkins, and his ability to maneuver past defenders and slash into open spaces contrasts with the majority of his teammates, Friars like Bryce Cotton and Josh Fortune who create primarily from beyond the three-point arc. It also will not surprise if Austin posts a squad-high steal rate next season. The added height will cut down on extra chances , and when coupled with Austin’s length and quick hands, PC could be on the verge of cracking one OPPP in Big East play under Cooley.

Rene Castro, Butler: Rotnei Clarke’s conversion to a point guard was arguably a failure – only one other Butler team coached by Brad Stevens had a lower assist rate – but putting the ball consistently in Clarke’s hands meant plenty of made buckets. Without Clarke, though, Butler will use their fall practices in search of a playmaker. Roosevelt Jones is an option, allowing the brawny wing to operate as a pseudo point-forward, but another strategy may be entrusting Rene Castro with the majority of Butler’s ball-handling duties. The guard has reportedly worked often on his handle and conditioning this offseason, and the expectation is for Castro to spend most of his minutes running the Bulldogs’ offensive sets. Known for his scoring prowess – Castro was labeled a combo guard by most recruiting sites and is known for his mid-range game – Castro’s offense should keep teams anchored to the 6’1″ freshman, dissuading opponents from leaving Castro to hard-hedge on Kellen Dunham or clogging the paint to prevent drives from Jones or cuts from Khyle Marshall.

JaJuan Johnson, Marquette: It is difficult to prognosticate which members of Marquette’s recruiting class will see major minutes next season – the quintet is so acclaimed that any of the five members could earn valuable PT – but the unexpected departure of Vander Blue and question marks surrounding the Golden Eagles’ wing – minus the inconsistencies, can Todd Mayo regain his freshman form? – indicate a substantial role for JaJuan Johnson. The 6’5” guard has a funky shot, and whether he can play defense to Buzz Williams’ liking will be a significant factor in how many minutes he actually uses, but Johnson is offensively aggressive and possesses an innate quickness that allows him to get to the rim easily. Thanks to a plethora of frontcourt options, Marquette will likely exploit their interior advantage – MU has never been a team to stand around jacking threes, sporting a three-point field goal attempts rate that often ranked in the bottom half of the Big East – but Johnson provides a player of capable of often creating for himself, a skill MU sorely lacks entering 2014.

Jameel McKay, Marquette: McKay is not the next Darius Johnson-Odom, Jae Crowder, or Jimmy Butler – that is, a former junior college player who will become a premier scoring option for the Golden Eagles – since McKay’s range, based on summer league observations, barely extends to the free throw line. Why McKay is on this list directly ties to the energy he oozes whenever he steps onto the court. Davante Gardner was recently asked about his new frontcourt ‘mate and after comparing McKay to a forward in the mold of Dennis Rodman or Chris Bosh, Gardner noted McKay prodigiously hauls in rebounds, saying the junior “…jumps around too much.” MU is known for their advantage on the offensive glass – both Gardner and Otule grabbed more than twelve percent of the squad’s misses – but the team surprisingly struggles to keep opponents from retaining possessions. Marquette’s defense doesn’t necessarily suffer from the second chances, so Williams and his staff will use McKay’s athleticism solely on defense. He’ll be involved in transition, and could even be an option during pick and rolls (though MU dished to the roller on 23 just possessions last season), but McKay mainly will prowl the defensive boards and create havoc for opponents who get past MU’s stringent man defense.

Reggie Cameron, Georgetown: Greg Whittington and Otto Porter combined for roughly 27 percent of Georgetown’s offensive possessions last year. Porter has long departed for the NBA, and it is unclear if Whittington’s knee injury will keep him sidelined for the upcoming season, creating a dilemma that made Reggie Cameron’s decision to trek down I-95 even more crucial to the Hoyas’ potential success. It is well known that coach John Thompson III recruits versatile forwards, bigs who can stretch the defense with their shooting but who are also capable of cutting to the free throw line and offensively creating of the bounce. The Hoyas currently lack that element without Porter and (possibly) Whittington, but Cameron, who was known as skilled shooter who also stands 6’7”, could fill that role. Cameron’s abilities enable him to stretch the floor, creating gaps he can exploit with his refined ball-handling skills as well as free up D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera and Markel Starks from the perimeter – the two guards attempted more than 50 percent of the squad’s threes in 2013.

Kris Jenkins, Villanova: Don’t expect coach Jay Wright to simply give minutes to Kris Jenkins because Villanova’s roster only features two other Wildcats standing above 6’7” (Daniel Ochefu and Darryl Reynolds, a fellow frosh). The Wildcats could orchestrate countless possessions with a four-guard lineup that features Jayvaughn Pinkston as the ‘big,’ and the squad would be able to capitalize on the inherent mismatches (there is already concern, though, that Pinkston may be sidelined: the forward posted a photo on his Instagram account with a caption that included the words ‘torn’, ‘muscle’, and ‘MRI’). However, Jenkins will see minutes because the big a skill set similar to Pinkston – not only can he score on the interior and from beyond the three-point line, but he has long practiced against taller bigs and knows how to use his body to gain an edge (and a blown whistle). Jenkins is undersized for a high-major big, but his wide body helps Jenkins counter any height disadvantage in the post.

Matt Giles is a reporter for New York Magazine and has contributed to College Basketball Prospectus 2012-13, ESPN the Magazine, ESPN Insider, the New York Times, BuzzFeed, and Salon. You can follow Matt on Twitter @HudsonGiles.