Manhattan got the opportunity to play postseason basketball this season in the CIT. The Jaspers though had to go on the road for at least the first two rounds. After winning in Albany they were given a third shot at conference foe Fairfield. The Stags must have known what was coming, because they defeated the Jaspers 69-57 on Sunday afternoon at Alumni Hall.
Continue reading “Manhattan’s season ends at MAAC rival Fairfield”
This is more an FYI than anything else, but Manhattan is going to be playing in the second round of the CollegeInsider.com Tournament (CIT) this afternoon at Fairfield at 4 p.m. The Jaspers and Stags will be meeting for the third time this season. They split during their two meetings in MAAC play with both teams winning their respective home games. Manhattan won by two and Fairfield by six.
Last night Manhattan did something it hadn’t done since 2006, win a postseason game. The Jaspers beat Albany 89-79 behind 34 points and 10 rebounds from George Beamon. Continue reading “Manhattan moves onto 2nd round in CIT”
Manhattan and Albany play tonight at 7 p.m. at SEFCU Arena in Albany in the first round of the CIT. The Jaspers have had the biggest turnaround in Division I and are 20-12. Albany is 19-14. Both teams lost earlier than they wanted in their conference tournament. I asked the guys at UnrankedAE (Matt) and WCDB (Jay) for some more info on the Great Danes.
I don’t believe in +/- too much at the collegiate level, but sometimes derivative statistics can provide some interesting jumping off points. One of those is +/- for lineups. Another is Roland Rating. Basically, Roland Rating is the difference between a team’s +/- when a player is on the court and off of it. It’s a way of judging how valuable player is if you’ve got a large enough sample size. Let’s see what it says about each of the NYC teams and who the most valuable players are.
Continue reading “Using Roland Ratings to Determine Team MVPs”
The computer’s MAAC tourney predictions all revolve around one team: Iona. The Gaels dominate everything you’ll in the simulation results. Basically, if you slip past them, whatever round you come across the MAAC’s most talented team, you’ve got a shot at winning a title. That’s especially true for a team like Fairfield. According to the sim results the semifinal between the Gaels and Stags is the gateway to the title. Almost 60% of the time Fairfield got past Iona, Sydney Johnson’s team won the league title.
Regular season MAAC play has come to its inevitable conclusion. The final day offered a few surprises as Rider beat Fairfield at home, Loyola (MD) pulled out a squeaker over Manhattan and Marist went off on Niagara. All of those results have been included in this final edition of the tempo-free MAAC and will also impact the projected tournament results that I will unveil on Tuesday afternoon. It’s been quite the ride. For some more reading on the MAAC, checkout out this Q&A Siena Saints Blog did with MAAC commissioner Rich Ensor.
Last night Iona had to work to get over the final hump, but with one game remaining the Gaels now have a two-game lead over a the three-way tie for second place. Honestly, that’s how it should be. Fairfield, Loyola (MD) and Manhattan are good basketball teams, but Iona is the class of the league this season. They’ve finally proved it too. The win over the Stags was the fifth straight for the Gaels.
Still, I think Iona would rather not see the Greyhounds in Springfield, MA next week. It’s all about the match ups. From the beginning of the season the Gaels have struggled with teams that rebound well (see every loss this season). Loyola rebounds really well. Iona would certainly benefit if the Greyhounds were knocked off before a rematch. Of course it’s quite possible that Loyola could be facing Iona in the semifinals. The Manhattan-Loyola game on Sunday looms huge over the MAAC standings.
Lost in the hype over Iona defeating Fairfield last night was the fact that another record fell at Manhattan, and the Jaspers now have 20 wins. Rhamel Brown set the single-season record for blocks in a season at Manhattan, breaking Arturo Dubois’ 2005-06 mark of 74 with his second block of the game. Brown finished with three in 19 minutes after getting the start. He has the highest block rate in the country. Yes, it’s higher than Jeff Withey, Anthony Davis or Fab Melo. In fact, Brown’s block rate is higher than all but seven teams in the entire NCAA.
Sunday should be a lot of fun.
Midway through the first half in Manhattan’s 70-64 loss to Siena at the Times Union Center in Albany, NY Michael Alvarado collided with O.D. Anosike. According to tweets from reports who were at the game Steve Masiello said in the postgame that Alvarado was elbowed and suffered a concussion and possibly a fracture of his eye-socket bone. That sounds like a long-term injury and certainly is going to have a big impact on the Jaspers moving forward.
Here’s video of the play courtesy of the Siena Saints Blog, which I highly recommend you check out.
Manhattan is now 18-10 and 11-5 in the MAAC. The Jaspers are probably going to hold onto the fourth seed, which could set up a potential match up with Iona in the conference semifinals. But all that is getting ahead of ourselves because of the current roster situation.
Alvarado is the second leading scorer on the Jaspers. Manhattan relies on his ability to drive to the basket in order to make plays. That’s why his free throw rate is so strong. He’s also shooting a respectable 39% from three, one of the best marks on the team. His offensive rating right now sits right at 100. Also, Alvarado’s man-to-man defense is a key to the Jaspers’ press. He’s one of the top players in the nation according to steal rate.
Unfortunately concussions are a tricky thing. You never know when a player is going to be ready to return or how he’ll react when healthy. Pay attention to the news as we get more information about the extent of the injury. If it’s a long-term situation then Kidani Brutus and Mohamed Koita are going to play even more minutes in the Manhattan backcourt. Brutus played 32 minutes, about six more than his season average, and Koita played 15, five more than his season average, against Siena. Brutus will have to cut down on turnovers, but his three-point shooting should be a valuable asset. Against the Saints he shot 3-7 from long distance. Koita has really struggled offensively this season. He’s a strong defensive presence, but with a 79.0 offensive rating he’s basically a black hole at that end of the court.
The defensive end though is where Manhattan got burned by Alvarado being out against the Saints. Freshman Evan Hymes went off for 21 points, including 5-8 three-point shooting, and seven assists in 40 minutes. The worry is that players like Scott Machado, Dylon Cormier and Derek Needham would be able to take even more advantage of such a situation.
If Alvarado has to miss any extended amount of time it’ll be a big blow for the Jaspers. Their depth will certainly be tested and they finish up against UNC Wilmington, Canisius and Loyola (MD) in the Bronx over the next few weeks.
At the beginning of the season there was a four-horse race at the top of the MAAC standings according to most pundits. Well here we are with just a few weeks left in the regular season and we’re right back where we started. The MAAC is a four-horse race. All you have to do resolve things is change the name Rider with Manhattan and you’ve got pretty much what everyone expected. There’s a talented Iona team leading the pack and four teams in the Top 125 on KenPom that can beat each other on any given night.
That’s right, we’re officially welcoming Fairfield back into the fold after the Stags went to Baltimore and did what Iona couldn’t in a convincing 68-51 win in 62 possessions. That’s a dominating performance and it all comes down to match ups. That’s why even though the Gaels look like a heavy favorite right now and are still the top team in the conference according to efficiency margin, they’re certainly beatable.
Tempo-free Standings:
1. Iona (12-3) — +0.204
2. Manhattan (11-4) — +0.132
3. Fairfield (10-4) — +0.100
4. Loyola (MD) (12-3) — +0.095
5. Rider (8-7) — +0.024
6. Niagara (6-9) — -0.047
7. Siena (6-9) — -0.056
8. Marist (4-10) — -0.116
9. St. Peter’s (4-11) — -0.163
10. Canisius (1-14) — -0.180
I’d like to note here that Iona’s efficiency margin in conference is pretty darn impressive. The Gaels though have been inconsistent and its cost them a couple wins and made things interesting at the top of the standings. Scott Machado triple-doubles are going to help this team make it through, but I think it’s telling that he grabbed 11 rebounds. Iona needs him to do it. Still, Fairfield won the league last season at a +0.13, that’s like Manhattan this season. The Gaels are on another level.
Superlatives:
Best Offense: Iona at 1.18 points per possession
Best Defense: Manhattan (just barely) at 0.921 points allowed per possession (Fairfield is #2 at 0.922)
Worst Offense: St. Peter’s at 0.89 points per possession
Worst Defense: Canisius at 1.11 points allowed per possession
Luckiest: St. Peter’s at 2.1 wins above expected
Unluckiest: Iona at 1.5 wins below expected
Your highest variance contender (out of the top four) is Manhattan. The highest variance teams overall are Rider and Marist. The lowest variance team overall is still Loyola (MD) and then Fairfield and Canisius.
NYC Buckets Archive 