Category: MAAC

Manhattan loses to Siena, bigger loss is Alvarado

Midway through the first half in Manhattan’s 70-64 loss to Siena at the Times Union Center in Albany, NY Michael Alvarado collided with O.D. Anosike. According to tweets from reports who were at the game Steve Masiello said in the postgame that Alvarado was elbowed and suffered a concussion and possibly a fracture of his eye-socket bone. That sounds like a long-term injury and certainly is going to have a big impact on the Jaspers moving forward.

Here’s video of the play courtesy of the Siena Saints Blog, which I highly recommend you check out.

Manhattan is now 18-10 and 11-5 in the MAAC. The Jaspers are probably going to hold onto the fourth seed, which could set up a potential match up with Iona in the conference semifinals. But all that is getting ahead of ourselves because of the current roster situation.

Alvarado is the second leading scorer on the Jaspers. Manhattan relies on his ability to drive to the basket in order to make plays. That’s why his free throw rate is so strong. He’s also shooting a respectable 39% from three, one of the best marks on the team. His offensive rating right now sits right at 100. Also, Alvarado’s man-to-man defense is a key to the Jaspers’ press. He’s one of the top players in the nation according to steal rate.

Unfortunately concussions are a tricky thing. You never know when a player is going to be ready to return or how he’ll react when healthy. Pay attention to the news as we get more information about the extent of the injury. If it’s a long-term situation then Kidani Brutus and Mohamed Koita are going to play even more minutes in the Manhattan backcourt. Brutus played 32 minutes, about six more than his season average, and Koita played 15, five more than his season average, against Siena. Brutus will have to cut down on turnovers, but his three-point shooting should be a valuable asset. Against the Saints he shot 3-7 from long distance. Koita has really struggled offensively this season. He’s a strong defensive presence, but with a 79.0 offensive rating he’s basically a black hole at that end of the court.

The defensive end though is where Manhattan got burned by Alvarado being out against the Saints. Freshman Evan Hymes went off for 21 points, including 5-8 three-point shooting, and seven assists in 40 minutes. The worry is that players like Scott Machado, Dylon Cormier and Derek Needham would be able to take even more advantage of such a situation.

If Alvarado has to miss any extended amount of time it’ll be a big blow for the Jaspers. Their depth will certainly be tested and they finish up against UNC Wilmington, Canisius and Loyola (MD) in the Bronx over the next few weeks.

Tempo-free MAAC: The more things change…

At the beginning of the season there was a four-horse race at the top of the MAAC standings according to most pundits. Well here we are with just a few weeks left in the regular season and we’re right back where we started. The MAAC is a four-horse race. All you have to do resolve things is change the name Rider with Manhattan and you’ve got pretty much what everyone expected. There’s a talented Iona team leading the pack and four teams in the Top 125 on KenPom that can beat each other on any given night.

That’s right, we’re officially welcoming Fairfield back into the fold after the Stags went to Baltimore and did what Iona couldn’t in a convincing 68-51 win in 62 possessions. That’s a dominating performance and it all comes down to match ups. That’s why even though the Gaels look like a heavy favorite right now and are still the top team in the conference according to efficiency margin, they’re certainly beatable.

Tempo-free Standings:

1. Iona (12-3) — +0.204
2. Manhattan (11-4) — +0.132
3. Fairfield (10-4) — +0.100
4. Loyola (MD) (12-3) — +0.095
5. Rider (8-7) — +0.024
6. Niagara (6-9) — -0.047
7. Siena (6-9) — -0.056
8. Marist (4-10) — -0.116
9. St. Peter’s (4-11) — -0.163
10. Canisius (1-14) — -0.180

I’d like to note here that Iona’s efficiency margin in conference is pretty darn impressive. The Gaels though have been inconsistent and its cost them a couple wins and made things interesting at the top of the standings. Scott Machado triple-doubles are going to help this team make it through, but I think it’s telling that he grabbed 11 rebounds. Iona needs him to do it. Still, Fairfield won the league last season at a +0.13, that’s like Manhattan this season. The Gaels are on another level.

Superlatives:

Best Offense: Iona at 1.18 points per possession
Best Defense: Manhattan (just barely) at 0.921 points allowed per possession (Fairfield is #2 at 0.922)
Worst Offense: St. Peter’s at 0.89 points per possession
Worst Defense: Canisius at 1.11 points allowed per possession
Luckiest: St. Peter’s at 2.1 wins above expected
Unluckiest:  Iona at 1.5 wins below expected

Your highest variance contender (out of the top four) is Manhattan. The highest variance teams overall are Rider and Marist. The lowest variance team overall is still Loyola (MD) and then Fairfield and Canisius.

Updated Ivy and MAAC races

In case you’re not following me on Twitter. (Why not?)

Ivy League: Harvard now at 98% to at least share the title. ~92% outright. Penn ~1.1% outright. Princeton/Yale/Cornell alive, but tiny.

MAAC: There were 4,043 ties in 10,000 seasons. Iona a slight favorite (72.1% to at least tie) over Loyola (MD) (63.7%). Manhattan and Fairfield with life.

Iona’s bad habits resurface in loss to Loyola (MD)

The Loyola (MD) Greyhounds now control their own destiny in the MAAC. All of Iona’s bad habits came back on Friday night on ESPNU and the Gaels find themselves looking for answers once again after last night’s 87-81 defeat.

The problem was the defense. There’s an established baseline of how bad Iona’s defense can be and still win games against good competition, this game exceeded that threshold. The Gaels have lost four of five games this season when they’ve allowed their opponent to score more than 1.13 points per possession. The one win was against Canisius. The four losses were to Purdue, Loyola (MD), Manhattan and Marshall – four of the best teams on Iona’s schedule.

It’s a pity that the defense hasn’t shown up in these big spots, because the Gaels have played alright offensively in each of those games. But even with all the talent Iona has on the offensive side of the ball, it’s not really prepared for a shootout. At the end of a shootout you have to get one or two key stops that help you get back into the game and win it. Iona can’t make those plays.

Like many of Iona’s losses this season the Gaels were forced to play from behind. Loyola (MD) led by 17 at halftime and by 25 with 13:42 remaining in the second half before the comeback started. It’s nearly impossible to come back from that type of deficit. While Iona did manage to make it a four-point game with 26 seconds remaining, that’s just too late.

According to the Win Probability graph on Ken Pomeroy’s site ($) Loyola had around a 60% chance of winning this game from about 12:39 remaining in the first half on and a greater than 75% chance of winning at every moment after the under four minute media timeout. By the time Iona started its comeback the Greyhounds had something like a 98% chance of winning the game. Nobody likes playing with 2% odds (especially when you started with around 50/50).

The more I think about it and the more I look at the stats Iona reminds me of fast-paced Northwestern. Both teams have elite offenses and suspect defenses. When they go up against good competition the cracks in the defense begin to show and the team struggles a bit. The fortunate thing for Iona is that the Gaels play in the MAAC. All that winning the regular season title will do for Jimmy Patsos is give his team a No. 1 seed in Springfield. From there it’s a race to the tournament title.

So that’s not worth too much. There’s four good teams in the MAAC, so unless someone gets upset you’re not avoiding them anyways in the semifinals. Fairfield, the current fourth place team, is a much harder matchup for Loyola than either Manhattan or Iona. Sydney Johnson’s team has the big men that can bang and run with Shane Walker (22 points, 10 boards) and the guards to track down Dylon Cormier (22 points) on defense. Fairfield and Manhattan are the two MAAC teams committed the most to playing defense. In a short tournament over a few days in Massachusetts that might be enough.

If that’s the case, Iona will just be left to wonder, “What if?”

Off the cuff MAAC schedule analysis

I’d prefer to do a little more in depth investigation of each of these schedules, but the four MAAC contenders definitely have different levels of difficulty to climb over the final few weeks of the season. It obviously starts tonight with Iona at Loyola (MD). The Gaels are a slight favorite, somewhere between two points (KenPom, Sagarin) and just over a half point (Accuscore), and I can’t believe Vegas has it all the way up around 2.5 points.

After this game in Baltimore the schedule really breaks nicely for Iona. Here’s what the Gaels have remaining:

  • Marist (H)
  • Rider (A)
  • Fairfield (H)
  • St. Peter’s (H)

That’s a pretty easy schedule. There’s three home games and a tricky road game against a good Rider team. The Stags have been rolling lately, but it might come to and end here down the stretch. That’s because they probably have the hardest remaining schedule of any MAAC contender and it starts on Sunday against Loyola (MD). Here it is:

  • Loyola (MD) (A)
  • St. Peter’s (H)
  • Iona (A)
  • Rider (A)

There’s three tough games in there and they’re all on the road. Sydney Johnson’s club has a great chance to prove that the recent four-game winning streak is no fluke by going into some tough environments and getting the wins that would put them right back at or near the top of the conference standings.

For completeness here are the two middle schedules. First Manhattan:

  • St. Peter’s (A)
  • Siena (A)
  • Canisius (H)
  • Loyola (MD) (H)

The Jaspers have just one game against a MAAC contender remaining, but the rest of these aren’t givens either considering two are on the road. Manhattan will have to bring its offense to Jersey City and Albany in order to remain in the top four in the standings.

And here’s Loyola (MD)’s post tonight’s big game against Iona:

  • Fairfield (H)
  • Marist (A)
  • Rider (A)
  • Manhattan (A)

The toughest part about this schedule is that the Greyhounds have to go on the road for their three final games. That’s going to make things a bit more difficult, but only one is against a top contender – though another is against the very variable Broncs squad. In fact, with games against three of the four contenders remaining – and all of them at home – Rider is one of the most interesting teams to watch down the stretch. Tommy Dempsey’s team is just 8-6 in conference play right now, but after Saturday’s game at Niagara they will be the team outside of these four that has the biggest impact on the final MAAC results.

Then it’s off to Springfield and MAACachusetts.

Deception on the Road

Game #8-511: Iona Gaels at Manhattan Jaspers

February 4, 2012 7:00 pm
Draddy Gymnasium
BBState Stats/Recap

I’ll admit it. I got there late. Iona vs. Manhattan was probably going to be one of (if not the) biggest regular season games of the year in New York City and I got there late.

It was my fault. I tried to pull off a triple-header, but something crazy happened in game two. After a lot of jawing during the game and a number of technical fouls, a shoving match broke out in the handshake line at the end of the LIU Brooklyn – Central Connecticut game. While I waited for that to die down, and a chance to get interviews, the seconds ticked away.

Thankfully, I had a ride. So we sped up the interstate from Brooklyn back to the Bronx, where I’d already been earlier that day to watch Fordham play Charlotte. As we did, I anxiously checked the score on my iPhone, while sitting in the passenger seat of course.

As we drove, it looked like the game was working itself in a Manhattan sort of way. The Jaspers want to play defense and grind games out against opponents. The trapping system that Steve Masiello brought with him from Louisville eventually wears down opponents and gives the Jaspers the chance to pull out games late. That’s exactly what happened the last time these two teams met — a last-second Manhattan victory.

Once I got settled into my seat on press row around the eight-minute mark in the first half, I realized that wasn’t the case at all. Sometimes box scores, especially mid-game ones, can be deceiving. The game in front of me wasn’t anything like the one I expected; instead, it was a furious up-and-down relay race in Draddy Gymnasium. The only problem was that Manhattan was trying to run a 4×100 relay with just one runner. George Beamon was hitting everything and trying to keep Manhattan in the game.

Iona, on the other hand, has lots of runners. Mike Glover, Scott Machado and Momo Jones form a trio that some MAAC observers have likened to the Miami Heat’s combination of Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh. While that’s an overstatement, there’s no doubt that the Gaels are extremely talented. It’s not their basketball skills that people worry about, but their focus.

And on Saturday they were focused.

Tim Cluess’ squad wanted revenge for the three that had ripped a victory away from them on their home court. They wanted to prove to all the Manhattan fans wearing green and the students saying dirty things that they were the elite team in the MAAC.

Starting the second half, that’s exactly what the Gaels did. Iona ripped off a quick seven-point run to build a working margin, and managed to not blow it this time. With the win, Iona once again sat in first place in the conference, but the Gaels will have to beat Loyola (MD) this week to stay there.

Near the end, Machado threw down the first dunk of his career on a fast break. There was no one around him, and he could’ve run off some more time, but he decided to throw it down, even with a banged-up knee. That play was to be the biggest display of emotion. It was the moment when Iona let their actions do all of the talking.

For the Gaels proved on Saturday night in a hostile gym that they’re not going down easy, and that Iona is still a team with a bunch of talent and bigger dreams ahead.

IONA 85, at MANHATTAN 73
02/04/2012

IONA 19-5 (11-2)– D. Burton 5-12 6-7 18; M. Glover 7-10 5-7 19; L. Jones 6-14 5-7 18; S. Machado 5-7 6-8 18; T. Ridley 3-7 1-3 7; S. Armand 4-9 4-4 14; K. Smyth 1-5 0-0 2; R. Dezouvre 2-3 3-4 7; J. Jenkins 0-0 0-0 0; R. James 0-0 0-0 0; T. Fields 0-0 0-0 0. Totals 28-55 24-33 85.

MANHATTAN 17-8 (10-3)– G. Beamon 8-15 7-7 26; M. Alvarado 3-11 0-0 7; K. Brutus 4-13 0-0 12; E. Andujar 3-9 0-0 7; R. Colonette 2-6 2-2 6; R. Brown 4-6 0-2 8; D. Kates 1-1 0-1 2; L. McCabe-Moran 2-3 0-0 5; M. Koita 0-1 0-0 0; D. Anderson 0-1 0-0 0; D. Coulibaly 0-1 0-0 0; K. Laue 0-0 0-0 0; R. McCoy 0-0 0-0 0. Totals 27-67 9-12 73.

Three-point goals: IONA 5-16 (S. Machado 2-3; K. Smyth 0-3; L. Jones 1-4; S. Armand 2-6), MAN 10-30 (L. McCabe-Moran 1-2; G. Beamon 3-7; M. Koita 0-1; M. Alvarado 1-3; K. Brutus 4-12; D. Anderson 0-1; E. Andujar 1-4); Rebounds: IONA 32 (M. Glover 7), MAN 30 (G. Beamon 8); Assists: IONA 21 (S. Machado 9), MAN 17 (E. Andujar 6); Total Fouls — IONA 15, MAN 23; Fouled Out: IONA-None; MAN-K. Brutus.

Game #8-511: Iona Gaels at Manhattan Jaspers

February 4, 2012 7:00 pm
Draddy Gymnasium
BBState Stats/Recap

I’ll admit it. I got there late. Iona vs. Manhattan was probably going to be one of (if not the) biggest regular season games of the year in New York City and I got there late.

It was my fault. I tried to pull off a triple-header, but something crazy happened in game two. After a lot of jawing during the game and a number of technical fouls, a shoving match broke out in the handshake line at the end of the LIU Brooklyn – Central Connecticut game. While I waited for that to die down, and a chance to get interviews, the seconds ticked away.

Thankfully, I had a ride. So we sped up the interstate from Brooklyn back to the Bronx, where I’d already been earlier that day to watch Fordham play Charlotte. As we did, I anxiously checked the score on my iPhone, while sitting in the passenger seat of course.

As we drove, it looked like the game was working itself in a Manhattan sort of way. The Jaspers want to play defense and grind games out against opponents. The trapping system that Steve Masiello brought with him from Louisville eventually wears down opponents and gives the Jaspers the chance to pull out games late. That’s exactly what happened the last time these two teams met — a last-second Manhattan victory.

Once I got settled into my seat on press row around the eight-minute mark in the first half, I realized that wasn’t the case at all. Sometimes box scores, especially mid-game ones, can be deceiving. The game in front of me wasn’t anything like the one I expected; instead, it was a furious up-and-down relay race in Draddy Gymnasium. The only problem was that Manhattan was trying to run a 4×100 relay with just one runner. George Beamon was hitting everything and trying to keep Manhattan in the game.

Iona, on the other hand, has lots of runners. Mike Glover, Scott Machado and Momo Jones form a trio that some MAAC observers have likened to the Miami Heat’s combination of Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh. While that’s an overstatement, there’s no doubt that the Gaels are extremely talented. It’s not their basketball skills that people worry about, but their focus.

And on Saturday they were focused.

Tim Cluess’ squad wanted revenge for the three that had ripped a victory away from them on their home court. They wanted to prove to all the Manhattan fans wearing green and the students saying dirty things that they were the elite team in the MAAC.

Starting the second half, that’s exactly what the Gaels did. Iona ripped off a quick seven-point run to build a working margin, and managed to not blow it this time. With the win, Iona once again sat in first place in the conference, but the Gaels will have to beat Loyola (MD) this week to stay there.

Near the end, Machado threw down the first dunk of his career on a fast break. There was no one around him, and he could’ve run off some more time, but he decided to throw it down, even with a banged-up knee. That play was to be the biggest display of emotion. It was the moment when Iona let their actions do all of the talking.

For the Gaels proved on Saturday night in a hostile gym that they’re not going down easy, and that Iona is still a team with a bunch of talent and bigger dreams ahead.

IONA 85, at MANHATTAN 73
02/04/2012

IONA 19-5 (11-2)– D. Burton 5-12 6-7 18; M. Glover 7-10 5-7 19; L. Jones 6-14 5-7 18; S. Machado 5-7 6-8 18; T. Ridley 3-7 1-3 7; S. Armand 4-9 4-4 14; K. Smyth 1-5 0-0 2; R. Dezouvre 2-3 3-4 7; J. Jenkins 0-0 0-0 0; R. James 0-0 0-0 0; T. Fields 0-0 0-0 0. Totals 28-55 24-33 85.

MANHATTAN 17-8 (10-3)– G. Beamon 8-15 7-7 26; M. Alvarado 3-11 0-0 7; K. Brutus 4-13 0-0 12; E. Andujar 3-9 0-0 7; R. Colonette 2-6 2-2 6; R. Brown 4-6 0-2 8; D. Kates 1-1 0-1 2; L. McCabe-Moran 2-3 0-0 5; M. Koita 0-1 0-0 0; D. Anderson 0-1 0-0 0; D. Coulibaly 0-1 0-0 0; K. Laue 0-0 0-0 0; R. McCoy 0-0 0-0 0. Totals 27-67 9-12 73.

Three-point goals: IONA 5-16 (S. Machado 2-3; K. Smyth 0-3; L. Jones 1-4; S. Armand 2-6), MAN 10-30 (L. McCabe-Moran 1-2; G. Beamon 3-7; M. Koita 0-1; M. Alvarado 1-3; K. Brutus 4-12; D. Anderson 0-1; E. Andujar 1-4); Rebounds: IONA 32 (M. Glover 7), MAN 30 (G. Beamon 8); Assists: IONA 21 (S. Machado 9), MAN 17 (E. Andujar 6); Total Fouls — IONA 15, MAN 23; Fouled Out: IONA-None; MAN-K. Brutus.

Tempo-free MAAC: The consistent contender

There’s one team in the MAAC that has been fairly consistent this season. It’s not Iona. It’s not Manhattan. It’s Loyola (MD). The Greyhounds have played at about the same level all season as they’ve compiled a 10-2 record to tie the Gaels atop the conference standings. Jimmy Patsos has his team limiting the ups and down and thus limiting the ways they can lose games. Their variance is half of anyone else in the league. (Just don’t ask how the Niagara game happened.)

Continue reading “Tempo-free MAAC: The consistent contender” →

Iona is growing up

Three and a half weeks ago Iona was the lead dog in the MAAC. The Gaels were undefeated and controlled their own destiny up by 17 against Manhattan at the Hynes Athletic Center. Then everything changed. Iona collapsed and the Jaspers pulled out a dramatic 75-72 victory. Tim Cluess’ squad got to show just how much it had learned from that moment on Saturday at Draddy Gymnasium.

Continue reading “Iona is growing up” →