Ivy League Weekly Roundup: Dec. 29

What Happened Last Week: The Ivy League went 0-4 against major-conference competition, headlined by Columbia’s competitive loss to UConn and Harvard’s 56-46 defeat at Arizona State. But the Ancient Eight took care of everyone else, going 5-1 in its other games; Ivies have now won 10 of their last 13 games against mid-major opponents. Continue reading “Ivy League Weekly Roundup: Dec. 29”

Cornell, Siena Continue Along Opposite Paths

Cornell and Siena may both be mid-majors from upstate New York hoping to return to their heights of five years ago, but their 2014-15 seasons could hardly be more different. The Saints entered with high expectations, picked second in the MAAC after winning last year’s College Basketball Invitational, but they struggled to a 3-6 start; the Big Red, on the other hand, rebounded from a 2-26 campaign to win half of their first 10 games. Both narratives continued at the Times Union Center on Tuesday, as Cornell exploded after halftime to top the hosts 75-57.

Siena and Cornell decorated the Times Union Center court in Christmas colors.
Siena and Cornell decorated the Times Union Center court in Christmas colors.

The pace was fast from the beginning, as the Big Red showed a full-court press while Siena countered with its usual aggressive defense. But the scoreboard lagged behind, as the two sides combined to shoot 1-for-15 on threes before halftime. Neither team led by more than two possessions in the first period, which concluded with Cornell up 27-26 on 35 possessions.

Shortly after the break, Cornell broke open the game with hotter outside shooting. Shonn Miller hit his team’s first three, Robert Hatter drew a three-point shooting foul, and Devin Cherry sank a trey off Jojo Fallas’s one-touch pass to cap an 11-3 run. From there, it was a battle of attrition; both teams drew 28 free throws in Tuesday’s physical game, but the Big Red held Siena to 27% shooting in the second half while pulling away with acrobatic layups on the other end.

“We’re a work in progress, and we’re a team that’s getting better. It was good to see us in the second half come out and play like the team I think we’re capable of,” Cornell coach Bill Courtney said.

Miller, a senior on the short list of Ivy League Player of the Year candidates, paced the visitors with 26 points on 9-for-18 shooting. The 6’7” forward is at his best in the paint but can also score from outside, making a three-pointer and a pair of 15-footers in Tuesday’s second half. He added a season-high 15 rebounds, earning his third double-double of the season (though he would have three more if humans used a base-nine counting system).

Though his 16.2 ppg lead Cornell, Miller’s impact is felt just as strongly on the other side of the ball. He’s a defensive stat-stuffer, ranking in the top 100 nationally in defensive rebound rate while racking up blocks and steals, but also a strong one-on-one defender. Matched up with Rob Poole, Siena’s leading scorer and a natural guard, Miller held Poole to six points on 2-12 shooting.  “Shonn’s used to guarding post guys, or athletic frontcourt guys. So having to guard a shooter was a little different for him,” Courtney said. “I thought he did a terrific job of staying attached to [Poole] and not letting him get a whole bunch of open looks.”

After ranking second-to-last nationally in defensive efficiency last season, per KenPom.com, Cornell is roughly average on that end this year. Much of that success can be ascribed to Miller, who missed all of last year with a shoulder injury. But it also reflects the improvement of holdovers — such as Robert Hatter, who has become a pesky ball-hawk, and shotblocking center David Onuorah — and the return of Galal Cancer, who also sat out last season.

Playing on the court where he won three high school section championships at Christian Brothers Academy, Cancer battled foul trouble and 2-for-7 shooting on Tuesday, but he had two steals and four assists as one of Cornell’s most willing passers off the dribble. “It almost felt like I was back in high school again,” he said.

While Cornell has been boosted by returning players, Siena is struggling in the wake of its own recent injuries. After Imoh Silas tore his ACL before the season and Brett Bisping had toe surgery this month, forward Lavon Long sprained his ankle last week and missed the last two games. The Saints are now on a four-game losing streak, and the preseason optimism has faded.

“I was reading the paper, and I looked at the Indiana Pacers, and they were 8-19. They were in the conference finals last year, and they had a guy leave, and they had a guy get hurt. Now I haven’t seen a highlight with them this year. Maybe we’re the Indiana Pacers,” Siena coach Jimmy Patsos said. “Some guys have to pick it up when other guys are down. That’s why I mentioned the Pacers, because I don’t know who’s picking it up for them.”

The Saints’ injuries have particularly hit their frontcourt; only two scholarship forwards were available on Tuesday night. Without much size, Siena’s defense has suffered, allowing at least 1.08 points per possession in each of its last four losses.

With the rest of MAAC play around the corner — Siena hosts Bucknell Sunday before resuming its conference slate Jan. 2 — the Saints don’t have much time to find their footing. According to Patsos (who got a second-half technical for protesting a series of shooting fouls), that means they must move on from their poor injury luck instead of using it as an excuse. “We could come in last in the MAAC if we don’t change, in my opinion,” he said.

Three Thoughts: Brown 67, Central Connecticut 55

It looked like a misprint, really. Brown 49th nationally in adjusted tempo? Then you look back at last season and see them 29th, mixed in with the VCUs and Ionas of the world. Then you remember the Bears – who haven’t won the Ivy League since 1986 – were 7-4 in the league before a three-game losing streak to close the season (including an overtime loss to Harvard). So maybe that’s the way to go these days?

Well, kind of.

Continue reading “Three Thoughts: Brown 67, Central Connecticut 55”

Better Than Ever, Wesley Saunders Leads Harvard’s Hot Start

Midway through the second half of Harvard’s game against Boston University last Monday, the Crimson were in trouble. The Terriers, who came in as double-digit underdogs, had just tied the game with a 10-2 run. Harvard’s offense stalled after a timeout as the shot clock ticked away. Handed a hot potato with a hand in his eyeballs, Wesley Saunders had no choice but to launch a flat-footed moonshot from 22 feet away. Continue reading “Better Than Ever, Wesley Saunders Leads Harvard’s Hot Start”

Ivy League Weekly Roundup: Dec. 15

What Happened Last Week: Nearly half of the Ivy League’s nine games came against major-conference foes, and most of those were interesting: Brown upset Providence, Columbia scared No. 1 Kentucky, Princeton did the same to California, and Yale lost at Florida. (More on those games below.) The Ancient Eight was 3-2 in its other games, including wins by Harvard, Penn and Dartmouth.

Three Four Thoughts:

1. Don’t be surprised if Providence wants a break from scheduling cross-town rival Brown. After the Bears won at home in 2012 and were tied in the final minute last season, they upset the Friars again on Monday, 77-67. This was the Brown team that many of us expected to challenge for top three in the Ivy League, combining balanced scoring (boosted by 10-for-23 three-point shooting) with strong all-around defense.

Brown battled Providence from the 9:15 local tip, exchanging runs to end the first half all square. After Providence went on a 6-0 run to tie the game again at 44-all midway through the second half, it felt like the Friars would continue pull away — but Cedric Kuakumensah and Leland King banged back-to-back threes, and Providence never led again. Steven Spieth was terrific down the stretch, scoring on pivotal drives and securing all his free throws. After avoiding turnovers (their chief flaw this season) for most of the game, the Bears made things interesting with late giveaways and silly fouls, but they held on.

For perspective: UConn was an eight-point favorite in its supposedly “embarrassing” loss to Yale. Providence was favored by twice that (15.5 points) against the struggling Bears.

2. Double-digit defeats don’t get much better than Columbia’s 56-46 loss at Kentucky on Wednesday. The Lions opened with an 11-0 run and led for the first 26 minutes, ultimately finishing with the closest score of Kentucky’s 11 opponents to date (including Kansas, Texas and North Carolina). The top-ranked Wildcats took over with a 19-5 run in the second half — rebounding all nine of their missed field goals in that nine-minute stretch — but not before getting a serious scare from the Lions, much as then-No. 2 Michigan State did last year.

Columbia naturally plays at a slow pace and shoots a lot of three-pointers, but Kyle Smith and the Lions took those tactics to the extreme with a textbook high-variance gameplan. Against the nation’s best shot-blockers, the visitors took more than half of their shots from behind the arc, making a higher percentage of threes (10-for-23) than layups (6-for-15). On defense, Columbia was aggressive with rotations and help defense, challenging the Wildcats to beat them with patience and extra passes. Above all, the Lions kept the pace to a Joe Scott-like crawl, minimizing Kentucky’s ability to pull away; the game clocked in at 51 possessions, five fewer than the next-slowest Ivy contest this year.

After the game, ESPN2 ran a two-minute segment on the Ivy League, including a graphic of “Notable Ivy Wins.” This isn’t your older cousin’s Ancient Eight.

3. Princeton used a similar formula on Saturday at Cal, making eight first-half threes en route to a 37-28 lead. But the Tigers’ outside shooting dried up after halftime, as they made just two of 11 triples thereafter. That drought contributed to a nine-minute scoreless streak, in which Cal took its first and only lead with a 13-0 run; more than half the hosts’ points in that stretch came off turnovers, as Princeton gave the ball away with overeager passes on backdoor cuts and post entries. A power-conference victory could have been a defining statement for the Tigers, on the heels of a loss to St. Peter’s; instead, they fell to 3-8, with clear potential but still few victories.

4. Nothing went right for Yale in its 85-47 loss at Florida on Monday. In a dramatic departure from their game at UConn, the Bulldogs failed to protect the rim and allowed a 50% offensive rebound rate; meanwhile, they shot just 34 percent from the floor. But on the Gators’ hottest shooting night of the season (10-for-19 from three), even a perfect game from Yale might not have been enough.

One Chart:

Ivy_League_shot_selection

Data via Hoop-Math.com

NCAA shot location data isn’t perfect — in particular, the distinction between “layup” and “jumper” is subjective and prone to bias — but it’s useful as a directional guide. Just as they did last year, Princeton and Columbia are taking nearly half of their shots from three-point range, along with very few two-point jumpers. Meanwhile, Harvard (45%) and Penn (42%) are the league leaders in shots at the rim. One-third of Brown and Dartmouth’s shots have been two-point jumpers, while Yale and Cornell are also near that mark.

Weekly Awards:

Player of the Week: Gabas Maldunas, Dartmouth — After playing his way back into shape from last year’s ACL injury, Maldunas appears to be back in form as Dartmouth’s go-to player. The senior posted double-doubles in both games this weekend, going for 13 points and 10 rebounds (plus five blocks) at UMass Lowell before adding 27 and 10 at Jacksonville State.

Rookie of the Week: Sam Jones, Penn — Jones became the latest Penn freshman to step up, knocking down five of six three-pointers en route to a game-high 19 points against Marist. After a slow opening game, Jones has made 14 of his last 25 treys, flashing a solid assist rate as well.

Looking Ahead: The schedule remains light, featuring only eight games as most Ivies finish exams. The headliner comes on Sunday, when Harvard visits 9-0 Virginia, which is ranked No. 6 in the AP poll and No. 3 in KenPom. The other top contenders face interesting mid-major tests, with Yale visiting Vermont and Columbia hosting Hofstra.

Power Rankings:

  1. Harvard — What would the Harvard narrative be like if one more shot had fallen against Holy Cross? The Crimson could be 8-0 and still nationally ranked heading into Sunday’s game at Virginia, which would be a much bigger deal on the national landscape. One shot would be a tiny change in Harvard’s 500-possession body of work, and yet it would have had enormous implications. (Side note: Harvard was particularly unlucky that Agunwa Okolie missed that game, one of the few times Harvard has needed to play four guards.)
  2. Yale — The Bulldogs’ upset last week inspired a final exam question in a UConn probability course, which just happened to be taught by a Yale alumnus. Hopefully, no basketball players took the class.
  3. Columbia — Cory Osetkowski had a few nice-looking possessions at Kentucky: He shot 3-for-4 with six rebounds and two assists against the nation’s most intimidating frontcourt, adding three assists.
  4. Cornell — The Big Red was idle this week, returning to action at Radford on Sunday. In the meantime, enjoy Cornell hockey fans trying to throw a 10-foot teddy bear onto the rink.
  5. Princeton — Of Princeton’s current rotation players, only Clay Wilson, a low-usage shooter off the bench, is a senior; starting forward Hans Brase is a junior, and the remainder are underclassmen. Even if the Tigers’ fortunes don’t turn around this year, they’ll be a factor in the league going forward.
  6. Brown — There may not be a Rhode Island college basketball tournament, but the Bears are doing their best to play one anyway, facing all three Ocean State foes this month. After beating Bryant and Providence, Brown can complete the sweep at Rhode Island on the 31st.
  7. Penn — The Quakers have won three straight games, but they probably can’t count on future opponents shooting 21%, as Marist did on Tuesday.
  8. Dartmouth — The Big Green’s last five games have come against teams ranked below 250 in KenPom, and they are 2-3 in that stretch. Maldunas had a strong week and Dartmouth looked good at UMass Lowell, but it’s been a rough start overall.

Quick Thoughts As Kentucky Defeats Columbia, 56-46

Tonight Columbia went to Rupp Arena and played the No. 1 team in the country — a team some hot takes even have beating the Philadelphia 76ers… And Kentucky didn’t take the lead until 13:18 remained in the game, but eventually won 56-46. It was a gutsy effort from an incredibly game Lions squad and much kudos to Kyle Smith, who basically did everything he could to pull out what would’ve been the most improbable of victories. Continue reading “Quick Thoughts As Kentucky Defeats Columbia, 56-46”