Trying to project BracketBuster TV and opponents

The BracketBuster selections are coming up soon, the games will be announced on Monday, Jan. 30 and while most teams are going to be able to get a Top 50 RPI win out of the deal, there are nine Top 100 RPI teams participating in the challenge. These are typically good games to win as an at-large candidate or for seeding purposes in the NCAA tournament. The format calls for six games on either ESPN or ESPN2, five on ESPNU and then two exclusively on ESPN3. Iona seemed primed for one of those ESPN cable slots just a few nights ago, but let’s see where they stack up plus which teams could be possible opponents for the Gaels, Manhattan and Stony Brook.

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Tempo-free MAAC: Just a couple close losses

Sure, it’s painful when a team loses, especially a team like Iona, which came into the season with such high expectations, but it’s also not the end of the world. Two close losses have brought Iona back to the pack in terms of the season standings, but the Gaels are heads and shoulders above every MAAC team when you take a look at the tempo-free standings.

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Iona loses 18-point lead in loss to Siena

Twenty days ago at Madison Square Garden Iona handed Siena its worst ever Division I conference loss, 95-59. Five minutes into Monday night’s game in Albany the Gaels looked to be well on their way to a similar result up 20-2, but the end result was anything but what they expected. Siena clawed back and pulled out a 65-62 win to send Iona into a three-way tie atop the MAAC with Loyola (MD) and Manhattan at 7-2.

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MAAC Similarity Scores: Can Iona be Cornell?

The top of the MAAC has four talented teams. The question for each though is how good can they be? Similarity scores help us tease that out a little bit. While it is still early in the season, enough games have been played that the four factors are beginning to stabilize and we can get a good sense of what a team will look like. That allows us to take a long look at similarity scores and find out what a team’s ceiling (or floor) might be. I took a look at the similarity scores for the 2012 versions of Iona, Manhattan, Loyola (MD) and Fairfield through January 17. The comparisons might surprise you.

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Tempo-free MAAC: Iona still in drivers seat

Iona may have lost a last-second game to Manhattan, but the Gaels are definitely still the team to beat in the MAAC. Iona is the top team in the league in efficiency margin, but it comes with a bit of a caveat, the Gaels have also played one of the easiest schedules in the conference thus far this season. Compare that with Manhattan. The Jaspers have played the third hardest conference schedule thus far. That’s by far the hardest schedule of any contender thus far. It also makes me think that the Jaspers, and their impressive defense, are for real.

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The funny voting habits of John Feinstein

If you take a look at the “Others receiving votes” section in this week’s AP Poll you’ll find something interesting. Wagner and Iona are both in there. The Gaels received two points and Wagner one. Does voters think that the Seahawks and Gaels should be amongst the Top 25 teams in the nation? Well, one man, author and columnist John Feinstein seems to think so. He’s been using the bottom few spots on his ballot to recognize mid-majors for a while now.

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8 Fateful Minutes

With 7:58 remaining Iona held a convincing 65-48 lead over Manhattan. The Gaels were rolling, but it was all about to unravel. From then on the Jaspers outscored the Gaels 27-7 and delivered the final knockout on Emmy Andujar’s banked in last-second three over Scott Machado. The 75-72 loss dealt a serious blow to Iona’s at-large hopes and made the MAAC title race a little more interesting.

“I think our guys took it way too complacent and they thought the game was over again and it’s a struggle with this team keeping their concentration and their motivation,” said Iona head coach Tim Cluess. “We’re really struggling with it and I have to do a better job of finding a way to motivate them better than I have been because this is happening way too often.”

During the final eight minutes every Manhattan player on the floor scored. Rhamel Brown, once the third-string center for the Jaspers, led the way with nine points, two boards, two blocks and a rebound during the final minutes. Brown’s two blocks on Mike Glover after the Jaspers cut the lead to seven helped Manhattan hold onto the momentum and seal the game.

“At that point in the game it was do or die,” Brown said. “We just played our hardest. We wanted it more than Iona. They’re a great team. They’re really competitive. They never gave up, but in the end the team that wanted it more got the win.”

Brown finished with 17 points, 11 boards and three blocks in 30 minutes.

“He’s a guy that dominates the game without having to score,” said Manhattan head coach Steve Masiello. “I’m so proud of him. He’s a joy to coach.”

Besides his game-winner, Andujar showed his versatility for the Jaspers as well. The freshman forward is often the best player on the floor for Manhattan. As Iona jumped out to a 39-22 first half lead that certainly wasn’t the case. Andujar played only seven minutes in the first half as he struggled with foul trouble. While the stat sheet said he had just one turnover, he also had some defensive miscues and didn’t grab a single board during the first 20 minutes. He grabbed four during the final eight minutes of the game. In another big rivalry game the young freshman was once again able to settle  into a rhythm. Overall he finished with 17 points, six boards and three assists in 25 minutes.

“I got in foul trouble, but I have teammates that help me be confident,” Andujar said. “I knew I was going to get it in the second half and I just kept my head in the game. Even though we were down a lot, with our style of play that we play I know we’re going to comeback and make our run.”

The Iona offense, which had looked unstoppable was stilted in the closing moments. Machado was brilliant for most of the game with 16 assists and just one turnover, but his 3-10 shooting prevented him from taking over the game. The senior point guard missed four shots down the stretch. Part of that seemed to be related to fatigue. While Manhattan forced just 11 Iona turnovers, during most of the second half the Jaspers forced Machado to work hard to cross the timeline with double teams and pressure. As a team the Gaels missed 11 shots down the stretch.

“This isn’t a wake up, this is a disgrace,” Cluess said.

Mike Glover scored his 1,000th point during the game in just his 54th contest with the Gaels, but it came in a bittersweet moment. Glover scored 18 points and grabbed eight boards. He missed just two free throws, but they were two key ones down the stretch. He also was contained by Brown in the final moments.

The loss will force people to concentrate on some of Iona’s flaws instead of its obvious strengths. The Gaels shot just nine free throws in the game and allowed Manhattan to grab 13 offensive rebounds. But what must be more frustrating for Cluess is that his team literally gave the game away. Those eight minutes will stay burned in the record for the rest of the season. They’ll haunt this team moving forward and continue to impact the MAAC until the end of the season.

Can Manhattan beat Iona?

Well, the simple answer to that question is “Yes.” Of course the Jaspers can beat the Gaels, even at the Hynes Athletic Center. If you’re playing the percentages Pomeroy gives Manhattan a 14% chance, Team Rankings says 5.8% and Accuscore says 13.8%. Let’s say it’s somewhere around 10%. That means that one out of every ten times Steve Masiello’s club pulls what some would consider a pretty big upset.

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