Bryant and Towson pulled off two of the biggest turnarounds in NCAA history last season. The Bulldogs and Tigers improved by 16.5 and 17.5 wins respectively. They also jumped more than 150 spots apiece in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings from the prior season.
In the prediction section of the Bryant NEC primer I wrote that I expected the Bulldogs to regress at least a little bit this season. Part of this was because Bryant pulled off a somewhat unprecedented turnaround. The Bulldogs’ 154-spot improvement wasn’t actually that unique last season.
After only 16 teams improved 150 spots in one year in the Ken Pomeroy rankings in the nine seasons from 2004 to 2012, 10 pulled off the feat last season (see table below). What was different about 2013? What should we expect from those teams this season? Let’s see what the past can tell us about these KenPom jumps.
| Team | Year | Change | Next Year | Off Change | Def Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 2004 | 157 | 39 | 200 | 49 |
| UTEP | 2004 | 256 | -31 | 242 | 218 |
| San Diego | 2005 | 153 | -9 | 143 | 112 |
| New Mexico St. | 2006 | 153 | 26 | 143 | 132 |
| Siena | 2006 | 162 | -19 | 169 | 93 |
| Appalachian St. | 2007 | 154 | -71 | 131 | 148 |
| Louisiana Tech | 2009 | 166 | 43 | 126 | 170 |
| Oregon St. | 2009 | 167 | -68 | 216 | 31 |
| Portland | 2009 | 164 | 27 | 159 | 107 |
| The Citadel | 2009 | 159 | -24 | 143 | 143 |
| Appalachian St. | 2010 | 153 | -98 | 144 | 104 |
| Princeton | 2010 | 154 | 28 | 54 | 171 |
| Wofford | 2010 | 154 | -12 | -18 | 272 |
| Georgia St. | 2012 | 152 | -93 | 123 | 76 |
| Manhattan | 2012 | 183 | -3 | 129 | 217 |
| South Carolina Upstate | 2012 | 187 | -67 | 154 | 180 |
| Arizona St. | 2013 | 163 | n/a | 147 | 153 |
| Boston College | 2013 | 168 | n/a | 249 | -7 |
| Bryant | 2013 | 154 | n/a | 244 | 27 |
| Canisius | 2013 | 212 | n/a | 256 | 76 |
| Eastern Kentucky | 2013 | 151 | n/a | 155 | 65 |
| Pacific | 2013 | 151 | n/a | 165 | 104 |
| Santa Clara | 2013 | 210 | n/a | 115 | 186 |
| Southern | 2013 | 155 | n/a | 81 | 170 |
| Towson | 2013 | 167 | n/a | 182 | 105 |
| Utah | 2013 | 189 | n/a | 192 | 96 |
New Head Coaches:
One of the easiest ways to spark a large turnaround is to find a new head coach. Coaches that made a big jump in their first season include Reggie Theus (at New Mexico State), Fran McCaffery (at Siena), Craig Robinson (at Oregon State), Buzz Peterson (at Appalachian State), Ron Hunter (at Georgia State), Steve Masiello (at Manhattan) and Jim Baron at Canisius last season.
Of course Baron helped himself out a little bit by bringing his high-major talent son Billy Baron with him to upstate New York. A few other new head coaches also had help. For instance, McCaffery’s first season at Siena was also Kenny Hasbrouck’s first season and he was a star from the get-go. Similarly, Theus had the help of Prairie View A&M transfer Tyrone Nelson when he took over at NMSU.
Still, it’s obvious that the right coach can dramatically improve a team. There were a bunch of head coaching changes this season, but it’s still hard to predict which new coaches are going to make a big splash. This though is the biggest subset of teams.
Finally Eligible:
Just two teams fall into this category, USC Upstate and Bryant. These two teams made a big jump in the national rankings in their first season of postseason eligibility because coaches planned to have them peak at the exact right moment. USC regressed 67 spots the following season. That’s more than the average 21-spot drop, but not the largest fall overall.
Huge Offensive Improvements:
Another thing that Bryant has in common with a few teams from the past is a huge improvement in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs jumped 244 spots in that category last season. The previous two teams that made a jump that large (UTEP in 2004 and Oregon State in 2009) ended up regressing an average of 50 spots the following season. There are three examples of this trend this season, which should help our understanding of what type of offensive improvement is sustainable. Boston College (249-spot improvement in adjusted offensive efficiency), Bryan (244 spots) and Canisius (256 sports) each improved a ton on offense.
Huge Defensive Improvements:
UTEP – which jumped 256 spots in the rankings – also fits into this category, with a 218-spot improvement in adjusted defensive efficiency. Other teams that improved a ton on defense include Wofford in 2010 and Manhattan in 2012. Last season Santa Clara improved by 186 spots in adjusted defensive efficiency. Those three teams only regressed by about 15 spots, mostly because some of the defensive gains held up. That’s good news for Santa Clara.
Others:
Sometimes things just go write or a program builds up to a great opportunity. For instance, Princeton improved by 154 spots in Sydney Johnson’s third season on the bench. The same thing happened at Boston College last season with Steve Donahue and Arizona State with Herb Sendek (with a little help from Jahii Carson). Building towards a crucial moment can help create a sustainable program. Eastern Kentucky under Jeff Neubauer fits the same model.
Conclusion:
This season will ultimately tell us a lot about teams that make a big leap in the Pomeroy rankings. The ten teams that made the jump last season offer an interesting study into what happens to a program the season after everything goes right. Can they sustain that momentum? It hasn’t happened that often, but if this small sample size trend holds three teams will continue to improve next season. Maybe Bryant will be one of them, but I’d bet the Bulldogs regress a little bit in their second season of postseason eligibility.
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