A Quick Comparison of Pomeroy and Hanner Predictions

Two very smart people have released preseason college basketball ratings that span the entire breadth of Division I. Even though Ken Pomeroy and Dan Hanner use different methods to make their predictions the results were quite similar last season. Still, there are some outliers. Here are a few of the more interesting one.

The Top 10 teams that Hanner’s rankings are higher on than Pomeroy’s:

1. Tennessee Tech (219 vs. 302)
2. Wyoming (89 vs. 161)
3. Kent St. (143 vs. 211)
4. Pennsylvania (179 vs. 240)
5. Milwaukee (205 vs. 265)
6. Arkansas Little Rock (168 vs. 227)
7. UC Irvine (135 vs. 193)
8. Fairfield (125 vs. 180)
9. Louisiana Tech (47 vs. 100)
10. Navy (270 vs. 322)

There are some really interesting cases in this Top 10. Hanner and I discussed Milwaukee and Penn at some length in our Q&A. My guess is that the Fairfield disparity is due to Hanner’s system having the knowledge that Sydney Johnson is about to add former Pitt Panther and Top 100 recruit Malcolm Gilbert to the Stags’ front court. That’s a huge upgrade that Pomeroy’s system isn’t designed to account for.

Another team where personnel might have a big impact is Wagner. The Seahawks aren’t in the Top 10 most different, but Hanner has Bashir Mason’s squad at 124th in the nation compared to Pomeroy’s 171st. A lot of that difference most likely comes from the fact that Wagner adds Valparaiso transfer Jay Harris and the potential for some better than expected development from Dwaun Anderson.

What about on the other side of the coin? Which teams do Pomeroy’s projections like more? Here is the Top 10:

1. Charlotte (128 vs. 204)
2. Louisiana-Lafayette (151 vs. 225)
3. Central Connecticut (179 vs. 252)
4. Northern Colorado (184 vs. 251)
5. Mount St. Mary’s (195 vs. 261)
6. SC Upstate (129 vs. 194)
7. Mississippi St. (117 vs. 178)
8. Marist (196 vs. 257)
9. Jacksonville St. (239 vs. 297)
10. NC A&T (243 vs. 298)

The two NEC teams are intriguing because there seems to be a lot of variance in how humans perceive both of these teams as well, with a lot of it depending on how you value depth and some personnel changes.

Hanner’s ranking of Mount St. Mary’s seems low still – the Q&A has more on that too. CCSU has a lot of talented pieces and the lack of depth and some questions in the front court are not as big problems in Pomeroy’s system.

Marist is another team that’s driving preseason predictions batty and the human element is a big part of it. The Red Foxes have a new coach – something Hanner accounts for – and a huge hole at point guard. Sure a ton of possession minutes are coming back, but can they be put together efficiently? That’s the big question that we won’t really have a real answer for until the season starts.

Of course, it’s also interesting to see where the two systems agree. There are nine teams which have the exact same ranking in either system. They are:

• Duke – 6
• Ohio State – 7
• Michigan – 12
• Gonzaga – 18
• Tennessee – 34
• Mississippi – 65
• North Texas – 232
• Siena – 277
• Grambling – 351 (last)

The overall standard deviation of the difference between the rankings is 26 places. There are 23 teams whose projection difference is more than two standard deviations apart. Having more projections is almost always more valuable than not. So it’s great that people have these two opinions to check out. Of course fans always want to paint the rosiest picture. If you want to know what ratings system to back just look your team up in the handy table below. They’re in alphabetical order.