10,000 Sims: Drexel’s Loss is George Mason’s Gain

When I ran the simulations in November for the CAA it was Drexel, Drexel and more Drexel. The Dragons looked like they’d be the class of the league. Well that hasn’t happened. Let’s look at three scenarios I mentioned at the top of the post at the beginning of the season.

The last time:

  • Drexel wins outright CAA title  – 70%
  • A team ineligible for CAA tournament wins regular season title (ODU, Georgia State, UNCW, Towson) – 2%
  • Someone goes undefeated (mostly Drexel) – 2%

Now:

  • Drexel wins outright CAA title – 10%
  • A team ineligible for CAA tournament wins regular season title (ODU, Georgia State, UNCW, Towson) – 0.5%
  • Someone goes undefeated – 0.4%

Those drops are significant all the way around, but the biggest is everything the Dragons gave up. They’ve given up a ton of title. A phoenix, in the form of the George Mason Patriots has arisen in their place. George Mason won 48% of the league titles outright. Also 23% of the simulations this time ended in a tie. Here is each team’s chances of winning the league including ties.

  1. George Mason – 66% (48%)
  2. Delaware – 20% (10%)
  3. Drexel – 20% (10%)
  4. William & Mary – 12% (5%)
  5. James Madison – 5% (2%)
  6. Northeastern – 4% (2%)
  7. Georgia St. – 1% (0.4%)
  8. Old Dominion – 0.4% (0.07%)
  9. Towson – 0.1% (0.02%)
  10. UNCW – 0.06% (null)

Hofstra didn’t win a single league title. Considering the Pride are in the midst of an eight-game losing streak that shouldn’t be too surprising. George Mason had 37 of those undefeated seasons that I mentioned earlier. William & Mary, which got a win over Old Dominion early in the season thanks to a scheduling quirk, is one of the most improved teams. Here are the averages:

  1. George Mason – 13.5
  2. Delaware – 11.5
  3. Drexel – 11.5
  4. William & Mary – 11.0
  5. James Madison – 9.7
  6. Northeastern – 9.6
  7. Georgia St. – 8.4
  8. Old Dominion – 7.6
  9. Towson – 6.4
  10. UNCW – 6.4
  11. Hofstra – 3.3

The CAA has some distinct tiers here. Tier 1: George Mason; Tier 2: Delaware, Drexel, W&M; Tier 3: JMU, Northeastern, Georgia St., Old Dominion; Tier 4: Towson, UNCW; Tier 5: Hofstra. If the Pride can jump into the third tier it has to be considered a wildly successful season for Mo Cassara given what the team went through in non-conference play.

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