Preview: Princeton vs. Fordham

The Brooklyn Hoops Holiday Festival on Saturday will feature three games at the Barclays Center. The first two will include schools from the New York City area, while the third is an ESPN2 showcase game between Michigan and West Virginia. Fordham and Princeton tip-off the action at 2:30 p.m. from Brooklyn.

Jon Solomon of princetonbasketball.com does a great job covering the Tigers. I answered some questions about Fordham and he was helpful enough to answer some about Princeton in order to get ready for this intriguing match up. For more on Fordham you can also check out Jaden Daly’s Q&A with head coach Tom Pecora.

Four Key Questions:

1) Princeton plays big. Is there a chance any guard will step up this season and take a starting spot away from Denton Koon?

JS: As of right now, no. The Tigers are a more sound defensive team with Koon’s length and Clay Wilson is better-utilized coming off the bench to launch threes (21 makes in eight games). It isn’t conventional but I think it is the only option head coach Mitch Henderson has.

2) Ian Hummer is awesome. How do teams try to contain him?

JS: Rutgers coach Mike Rice said he “tilted the court” to slow Hummer in a manner that he had only tried previously with UConn’s Kemba Walker. If you do that you may see why he’s been averaging 3.6 turnovers a game. While Hummer’s also handing out 4.9 assists a night, make him give the ball up and take your chances with the other four Tigers on the floor.

Also, Hummer’s down to 55.9% on the free throw line. Put him there.

3) Why has Princeton been so inconsistent? It seems like they’ve especially had a problem holding onto leads.

JS: As of right now they’re able to play 30 good minutes a game. The trip to Syracuse is the only time they haven’t opened up a decent lead from jump. For whatever reason only 2.5 Tigers seem to record good performances each contest. It isn’t the same 2.5 or so guys that are playing well each time out. Zones in the first four games and pressure more recently have been causes of distress. There have also been some costly missed free throws with the game in the balance against Northeastern (front end of a one-and-one) and Wagner (two misses with the game tied in the final minute).

4) Who is one player you’d like to see step up against Fordham? Why?

JS: Junior guard T.J. Bray.

Look at Bray’s last four outings:

• 17 points and 1-1 from three in a win at Lafayette.
• 4 points and 0-5 from three in an OT loss at Wagner.
• 15 points and 3-3 from three in a nice win at Kent State
• 0 points and 0-3 from three in Saturday’s home loss to Drexel.

Every time it looks Bray’s returning to consistency, things swing in the other direction. Will he return to form once more versus Fordham?

A big thanks again to Jon for helping us take a look at the Tigers.

Three Key Stats:

1. Fordham’s 3-point percentage – It is really difficult to score on the super tall Tigers. The Rams have struggled shooting the ball inside and outside the arc. It’s possible though that Fordham’s guards might get some good looks. They’ll have to knock them down in order to pull out the victory.
2. Tempo – These two teams, due to the foundations of their attacks, want to play at very different paces. If pressure can bother the Tigers then Tom Pecora is going to want to try and speed the game up and have Princeton make some mistakes. Maybe it forces a second guard onto the court or leads to some extra baskets. If Fordham can speed up the tempo of the game they’ll have a better shot of up-ending the Tigers’ methodical attack.
3. Experience – It might not seem like it, but Princeton has one of the most experienced lineups in the country. Against Wagner and Northeastern the Tigers couldn’t make the plays down the stretch to seal the victory. Can they against a very young Fordham team?

Two Key Players:

• Bryan Smith, G, Fordham – He’s going to have to be a scorer for Fordham in this game. The Rams are going to need an outside threat and Smith is the best one Fordham has right now. He’s shooting 34.1% from three, the best mark on the team at the moment.
• Brendan Connolly, C, Princeton – Connolly is going to have a distinct size and experience advantage over everyone he faces on Fordham’s front court. Can he take advantage of it and be a dominant presence in the middle? If so it’s going to make Ian Hummer and T.J. Bray’s jobs that much easier.

One Pomeroy Prediction: 66-57 Princeton (82%)