Preview: LIU vs. Hofstra

Hofstra goes on the road for the first time since its season was sent spiraling on Saturday at LIU Brooklyn. The Blackbirds are 2-4, but have won their past two games and are once again starting to look like a contender in the NEC. LIU also hopes to get Kenny Onyechi and Booker Hucks back for this game. Is it possible that Hofstra could have Jamal Coombs-McDaniel? It sure would help.

Jerry Beach of Defiantly Dutch was nice enough to answer some questions about the Pride prior to tomorrow afternoon’s game.

Four Key Questions:

1) After Tuesday night’s game Mo Cassara spoke about a “new plan” moving forward, how do you think this team could be successful in the future?

JB: Thanks to the arrests of four players (whom I’d rather not name here), the Dutchmen went from a deep, complete team in their weekend sweep of South Dakota State, District of Columbia and Marshall three years (err, three weeks) ago to one that has no depth and no margin for error. Cassara will have to mold the Dutchmen into an efficient and careful team on both sides of the floor. Right now, Hofstra is anything but that team: The Dutchmen rank last among CAA teams in field goal percentage (36.4 percent), next-to-last in points per possession (0.84), ninth in turnovers per game (15), and tied for last in defensive points per possession (1.04). They also rank first in possessions per game, though that figure is likely skewed a bit by the double-overtime win over Marshall.

2) The Hofstra offense has been really ugly the past two games, is there any chance it perks up against LIU? What would be a good sign in your mind?

JB: Sure, there’s a chance. I think there’s credence to the theory that Hofstra shot so poorly against SMU and Wagner because players were so distracted by and exhausted from the fallout of the arrests. The Dutchmen missed a ton of open looks, especially in the paint. David Imes was 2-for-12, Moussa Kone was 2-for-11, Darren Payen was 3-for-11, and Stevie Mejia was 4-for-20. None of them are anywhere close to that bad, so having three days off between games, and creating a little more distance from last week’s events, should help.

That said: As Mejia goes, so goes the Dutchmen offense. Mejia is shooting 21 percent (10-of-48) in Hofstra’s six losses and 57 percent (17-of-30) in its three wins. Hofstra needs him to rediscover the form that earned him the MVP of the 2K Sports Classic subregional. If he’s shooting well, it lessens the pressure on Taran Buie and means anything the Dutchmen get from 3-point specialist Matt Grogan as well as their forwards is a bonus and not a necessity.

3) LIU hopes to have two forwards back for the game on Saturday, will Hofstra have the front court depth to stop Julian Boyd, Jamal Olasewere and friends?

JB: The Dutchmen have a shot as long as Stephen Nwaukoni plays like he did the last two games, when he pulled down 19 rebounds against SMU and Wagner. He’s inconsistent in other areas of his game, but he’s pretty reliable on the boards, especially on the defensive end. Cassara will have to hope for a group effort out of Payen, Imes and Moussa Kone. Payen has tons of upside and picked up four blocks in his first two games, and Cassara identified him as the best player in this recruiting class, but he was going to redshirt until the arrests and he’ll be pretty raw as he shakes off the rust. Kone hasn’t been nearly as effective since Jimmy Hall got arrested (shoot, I named one of the players) while Imes has been inconsistent thus far.

4) You’ve written some great stuff lately on the situation. Where does Hofstra go from here? What’s your prediction for the season?

JB: Thanks for the kind words! Of course I would have preferred to have never had to write about stuff like that.

As for the remainder of the season: The Dutchmen had big-time CAA sleeper potential before the arrests, but honestly, I still think they’ll be better than last year. Things may not be pretty the rest of this month, but the lone shred of good news to come out of the arrests is they happened during the non-conference season, which will give Cassara and Co. plenty of time to mix and match in search of that new look. Calling the CAA “down” doesn’t do justice to how far the league has fallen off, and Buie is a big-time player as long as he stays on the court. Daquan Brown should be back for Dec. 22, which will give Hofstra an accomplished big, and there’s hope that Jamal Coombs-McDaniel can get back on the court relatively soon, which would provide the Dutchmen a player with a national championship pedigree.

So I expect Hofstra will pull off a handful of quasi-upsets, perform appreciably better in February and create a little momentum going into the mini-series known as the 2013 CAA Tournament. Winning tomorrow would be a huge step in the development of the Dutchmen, who are 0-4 on the road with an average margin of defeat of 23.3 points, especially since they won’t get another true road game until Jan. 1.

Three Key Stats:

• Hofstra’s effective field goal percentage: LIU gives up a ton of easy shots, ranking 338th in opponent eFG%. Hofstra has been miserable this season at making shots. Maybe the Blackbirds will be just what the doctor ordered. That said, LIU has been much better defensively at the WRAC. Holding its last two opponents to 45.8% and 44.6% eFG%.
• Can Hofstra get to the free throw line: The Blackbirds are great at stopping opponents from getting to the free throw line. Hofstra has scored 26.8% of its points from the line this season (11th highest nationally). If the Pride can’t get to the free throw line, can they score?
• Bench minutes: This comes down to health. If the Blackbirds get some front court players back the bench minutes will increase. Right now though only 22.7% of LIU’s minutes have gone to non-starters, one of the lowest figures in the nation. Mo Cassara has had to shorten his rotation lately, for obvious reasons, but he’s not hesitant to play a variety of guys. Walk-on Matt Grogan has been one of the biggest surprises lately.

Two Key Players:

• Stevie Mejia, G, Hofstra – Mejia has to win his individual match up against LIU’s Jason Brickman in order for the Pride to have a chance. Mejia got outplayed by Kenneth Ortiz in the Wagner loss. It’s important that he play under control and set up his teammates that aren’t used to playing in big spots for easy shots.
• Brandon Thompson, G, LIU Brooklyn – This game is a good opportunity for Thompson to get on track. He’s struggled a little bit on the offensive end, shooting just 28.6% from three (actually no one on LIU besides Brickman has shot well there). Jack Perri will need Thompson to make some big baskets and keep defenses honest moving forward. Against Hofstra there should be an opportunity for Thompson to get some open looks, because the Pride will almost certainly have to double down on Julian Boyd in the paint.

One Pomeroy Prediction: LIU 84-68 (89% chance of victory)