Passing Tendencies of Top Points Guards

To be amongst the nationally leaders in assists requires a number of things. It takes a good system. It takes teammates. It takes talent. Put all of those together and you might get really lucky. Through the early part of the season there are 10 players averaging at least seven assists per game. What makes them tick? Here’s a breakdown of their tendencies.

Unfortunately, not all of the players have complete play-by-play data available on ESPN (which is where I get most of my data). This is probably not surprising considering that right now guys like New Orleans’ Rarlensee Nelson ranks third nationally at 8.3 assists per game. Still, I was able to pull a representative sample of assists (at least 25) for every player. That’s what the following graphics are based upon.

First, what “types” of baskets do these players’ assists lead to? Well, it depends on what system they’re playing in. As you can see from the stacked bar chart above, players tend to fall into a few different categories. Both Trey Burke of Michigan and Cody Doolin of San Francisco play in an offense that asks them to drive and kick out to shooters on the three-point line. Thus the percentage of their assists that are threes are much higher than the group’s average. Anthony Collins of South Florida also falls into this category, as 47% of his assists are for threes.

Then there’s the biggest outlier of the bunch, Jace Tavita of Hawaii. I doubt he’ll be amongst the national leaders all season. Why is that? Well an astounding 55% of his assists come on jump shots. Two other players, Nelson and UCLA’s Larry Drew II, are also getting a lot of assists off jumpers. It’s probably not sustainable for Nelson either. In Drew II’s case though it just might be. Kendall Marshall followed a similar path last season at North Carolina. With the Wear twins spacing the court, it makes sense for Drew II to keep finding his teammates for mid-range jumpers.

It’s also important to note to whom people are passing. For instance, in the four game sample I was able to obtain, Jason Brickman had 47% of his assists go to Julian Boyd. (I’ll get XML data for him and dive deeper later in the season.) That’s not too surprising, especially because an incredible 81% of Boyd’s makes at the rim are assisted as are 60% of his jumpers according to Hoop-Math. Brickman, thanks to Boyd and Jamal Olasewere, leads all players in assists at the rim (layups plus dunks) with 67% of his assists ending that way.

The other combination that stands out is Stephen F. Austin’s Hal Bateman and Taylor Smith. Smith, a 6’6″ senior forward is that Lumberjacks’ leading scorer at 15.0 points per game. SFA is a somewhat surprising 5-1, with the lone loss coming to Texas A&M. Part of that can be attributed to this duo. (Part of it can be attributed to an easy schedule. The best win is 57-41 over Tulsa.)

The other thing I’m impressed by is how national assist leader Michael Carter-Williams spreads the ball around. He had 10 more assists in the Orange’s blowout win over Long Beach State on Thursday night. Nine different Syracuse players have gotten an assist from Carter-Williams this season. The most common recipients are James Southerland (25%), Brandon Triche (16%) and Rakeem Christmas (16%). It’s the fact that opponents don’t know where he’s going with the ball – and the plethora of options at his disposal – that make a player like Carter-Williams so dangerous.