If you’ve been reading the rest of the series you might’ve noticed a trend, well it continues with the MAAC. Ken Pomeroy sees a wide-open league, while Dan Hanner thinks one team has what it takes to pull away and secure the title. Let’s look at the implications of both.
First, here’s the nice even distribution that Pomeroy’s MAAC predictions produce. The parity is so excellent here that once there was a seven-team tie for first place. More than 1% of the sims ended up with more than two teams tying atop the standings (and more than a quarter ended up with at least a two-team tie). Also, if you believe Pomeroy’s rankings, 13 conference wins is going to be enough to take the title. There’s just too much parity for anyone to get more. Here was the percentage of times a team won the league title during the simulations, including ties:
- Iona – 42.9%
- Loyola (MD) – 23.1%
- Manhattan – 22.4%
- Fairfield – 19.8%
- Niagara – 15.7%
- Marist – 6.9%
- Siena – 1.3%
- Rider – 0.7%
- St. Peter’s – 0.08%
- Canisius – 0.01%
Congratulations to the MAAC! Every team has a chance of winning the league title according to Pomeroy. An impressive five teams won a league title more than 10% of the time. Even if you just use outright league titles, it’s still four teams. This parity also worked on the other end, as there were just five total undefeated seasons and 28 winless seasons (21 from Canisius). While the Golden Griffins are expected to improve this season under Jim Baron, the Pomeroy preseason rankings aren’t buying it. They had the lowest number of average wins with 4.9 per season. Iona leads here by about one win per season, which is what gives the Gaels the early advantage.
But Hanner’s rankings tell a completely different story. He thinks that Manhattan is going to be the best team in the MAAC this season, and by a large margin. Here are his projections.
- Manhattan – 77.0%
- Iona – 19.9%
- Niagara – 8.0%
- Fairfield – 8.0%
- Loyola (MD) – 5.4%
- Marist – 1.3%
- Canisius – 0.6%
- Siena – 0.07%
- Rider – 0.01%
- St. Peter’s – null
In this scenario we’ve got a dominant Manhattan team, followed by a cluster of dangerous ones. The Jaspers won an average 14 games per season and went undefeated 96 times during the simulations. They won the outright title 62.7% of the time. That’s a large percentage and suggests this is a pretty safe lead. St. Peter’s and Rider combined for 22 winless simulations during these trials.
So which one do I believe more? Actually, I think it’s Hanner’s projections. Yes, Manhattan is projected to win the league often, but the Jaspers are bringing back a ton of talent on a team that was fairly successful last season (finishing second in both offensive and defensive efficiency). Pomeroy’s ranking for Manhattan is still penalizing the team for pre-Steve Masiello seasons. It probably won’t be as easy as these numbers make it look, but Manhattan is the team to beat coming into the 2012-13 MAAC season.
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