Four LIU players have been indefinitely suspended. We don’t know many details at this point about what “indefinitely” means or what will come to pass, but what if the worst case scenario occurred and all four had to miss the 2012-13 season? Where would the Blackbirds end up?
Those are the questions I set about to answer with some numbers and estimates of future production and how the team would be impacted by the loss of Julian Boyd, Jamal Olasewere and C.J. Garner. The impact of the fourth member, Troy Joseph, is almost impossible to measure since we’ve never actually seen him on the court – though he was getting strong reviews from the LIU coaching staff in preseason.
For the purposes of making an argument I’m going to use Low-Major Value Add as a baseline. I’m not sure if this is the perfect method, especially because it rates LIU as the fourth best team in the NEC to start out at 28.53 LMVA points. But it is better than nothing. The differences between two and four are minuscule anyways. (Computers love Robert Morris coming into this season.)
But if you remove Boyd (8.22 LMVA points), Olasewere (7.99 LMVA points) and Garner (4.09 LMVA points) you’ve gutted LIU’s rotation. The total of 20.3 LM points drops LIU down to 8.23 LMVA, which is hanging out around the territory of St. Francis (PA) and Fairleigh Dickinson. The problem though is just removing those three players fails to take into account the fact that some other LIU players will be given increased roles.
One of the players that would greatly benefit in terms of playing time is Kenny Onyechi. The only season that Onyechi was a starter, when Boyd missed a season due to a heart ailment, he aquitted himself quite ably. He was a freshman playing 63% of possible minutes and using 20.7% of possessions and put up an 87.8 offensive rating. As a senior with a game plan more focused around his strengths, I’d expect a higher effective field goal percentage, which would make him a valuable offensive player. He’s also no slouch defensively. An increase in Onyechi’s playing time would certainly impact his LMVA in a positive way. I don’t think that 3/4 of Boyd or Olaswere’s projection is that unreasonable a place to start.
The other player that would probably benefit from all this is Brandon Thompson. He’s slated to start anyways this season, but with Garner out there would be more shots available. Jason Brickman would also have to provide a bit more offense, but it seems like Thompson would have a shot at filling a huge void. I think that he’d do a capable job. He put up a strong offensive rating last season and with 96 three-point attempts coaches obviously trust him to shoot. That’s the formula for a jump.
Gerrell Martin – another good shooter – and some of the newcomers also end up making a larger impact under this scenario – because there are more opportunities. So we boost up the numbers a bit and say in the end that LIU is going to get back 7.5 LMVA points from increased playing time for other options. That’s still a huge hit. It should be considering you’re taking two all-conference first team players off the court, but it’s workable.
Where does that leave LIU? Fighting for a spot in the quarterfinals with Mount St. Mary’s, Monmouth and Central Connecticut. That’s four teams for three spots. An improved Bryant might also get into the mix and then things would get even more complicated.
Under this scenario, if Jack Perri managed to keep LIU in the NEC Tournament in his first season as head man on the bench it would be a rousing success. LIU fans certainly hope it doesn’t happen.
NYC Buckets Archive 
Not only SHOULD Long Island University EXPELL all of these players, but the NEC should step in and BAN these players if they are allowed to return! I am a LIU Alumnus and Basketball fan and not even I can step aside and ignore this!
DISMISS Julian Boyd, Jamal Olaseware, CJ Garner, and Troy Joseph
Is this really what Coach Perri wants to start building? A team full of THUGS!
LikeLike
I have an email from LIU AD John Suarez says LIU has dismissed all 4 athletes. They have 10 days to appeal.
LikeLike
“Dismissed” or Suspended???
LikeLike
1st of all….Lets not rush to judgment on these KIDS. They were charged w/ a 3rd degree simple assault misdemeanor. They are being ACCUSED of some serious allegations, but have not been convicted. This is a case of ATHLETICS vs NON ATHLETICS….. Did these 4 get into a fight that involved over 40 people? Yes.. Has anyone else been charged w/ violating the schools honor code? No. This is a witch hunt b/c of who these kids are. When more details come to light, all of the media outlets and people who have said very dumb things will feel very stupid. It is a shame the way these 4 were selectively prosecuted on campus and off. When will athletes realize they are in a fish bowl?
And to John….. Should the NEC have stepped in last year when Kenny Horton beat his gf up? Or when QPAC had 4 starters arrested for conspiracy, and A & B? Or when Velton Jones had his legal dust ups? Let’s remember that these KIDS deserve due process before you convict them. People were hurt, but it was a melee. Not right, but neither is 4/50 being charged. I just hope LIU gets it right, and allows the legal process to play out before they act holier than thou. Remember Charles Jones (LOL)
LikeLike
Well said. These kids deserve due process before we assume and jump to conclusions. What ever happened to innocent until proven guilty? All we know is they were charged with 3rd degree assault, which isn’t a felony. No one was seriously injured. Sounds like a 3-5 game suspension to me, but we can’t rush to judgement until all the facts are known.
LikeLike
I am also a LIU Alum and let’s be careful about throwing out the term “Thugs” when it applies to these four young men. I have been following this team for a while and I am surprised that these 4 young men were involved in an brawl that could have lead to serious injuries to themselves and to other individuals. I have never heard of any off the court problems involving these young men. We don’t know what precipitated this event but let us all reserve judgement until all of the facts come out on this incident.
LikeLike
To call these kids “thugs” is absolutely ridiculous. If you want to know what thugs are, go hang out in a bad neighborhood late at night, several of them will be glad to introduce themselves to you, trust me. As for these four guys, did they make a terrible mistake, there is no question. But no one know the circumstances which cause to get themselves in that situation. Remember, we are still talking about young men in the early 20s, mistakes are going to be made. As someone else, pointed out before, the NEC has had guys get themselves in equal or worst amount of trouble in the past, were punished and were allowed to continue on with lives and careers. It shouldn’t be any different in this case. I’m an LIU alum too, I was at the school when Richie Parker came in as a freshman and there was no more controversial, attention-grabbing feature then him. After his troubles, you never heard anything about him again, during his 4 years at LIU and in the many years since. It was the same president and the same provost who are there now, who was there 16 years ago when they let Parker into LIU. Did LIU do the right thing suspending them immediately? Yes. Does part of me feel that these guys are getting singled-out because they are members of the basketball team? I honestly feel they are. Doesn’t excuse their actions, they should know better but they seem to be taking all the fall in this because there are the known variable. LIU likes to call themselves a school of second-chances. Well, this is their chance again to prove that motto still lives true. I think at the end of the day, when all things settle down and everyone gets to tell their side of the story and show remorse for their actions, they all should be allowed back into school and move on from this.
LikeLike
There have been pieces of information available since the news first broke on this incident, puportedly detailing what seems to have happened. The NY Times account appears to be the most damaging concerning the actions of these four guys and is probably the most detailed account out there to date. This is not good and, if the details in that Times article prove to be accurate, this unfortunate event really hurts LIU and its men’s basketball program. What a shame.
LikeLike
If this is the article you’re referring to: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/22/sports/ncaabasketball/liu-players-suspended-after-being-accused-of-assault.html?_r=0 I find it particularly interesting that Julian Boyd’s name isn’t referenced in the run down of the actual incident.
“Garner, 22, and Joseph, 21, are accused of punching men in the abdomen and head, causing bruises and other minor injuries. Olasewere, 21, is accused of pushing a woman to the ground and kicking her in the head.”
LikeLike
If that is true about Olasewere, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was dismissed from the team.
LikeLike
Such behavior is not permissible – end of story as these are in no aspect “kids” as you address them. These are adults who are.. rather should be established at the age they are in and such behavior is deemed to consequences. These so called “kids” are not angels as I have seen them all. One should take responsibility for one’s actions. This is their time to recognize their wrong doing. What a shame to ruin all that someone could wish for. What a shame.
LikeLike
Interesting that LIU has these four individuals still listed on their men’s BB roster a week later even though they appear to be technically not even in attendance at LIU. Is this a preliminary indication of how this is going to be seriously addressed by the LIU administration?
LikeLike
The appeals process for these players, as well as the legal process, is still ongoing and my guess is that the school doesn’t want to take any action about the roster online until it has all been sorted out. I believe all of these students would need to be in school shortly though if they were going to qualify to play basketball this season.
LikeLike