It’s the final weekend for most college hoops leagues and there’s still a lot to be determined. I’m going to run down the percentages of some important things happening for the teams from the area still competing for conference positions. I’m include the % chance, determined via the Ken Pomeroy odds of a certain scenario coming true.
1. Iona wins the top seed in the MAAC (76%): This one is easy. Beat Fairfield. I think that makes the St. Peter’s game moot anyways. There’s also a good chance that Loyola (MD) loses one its final two games (at Rider, at Manhattan) and makes the St. Peter’s game result incredible irrelevant, but Iona currently has a 98% chance of winning that one too.
2. LIU Brooklyn clinches top seed and Wagner clinches second seed in the NEC (100%): This is already done. The games that LIU and Wagner are playing on Saturday don’t effect them at all. Still, I’m sure the Blackbirds want to finish with just one loss and the outright title. I also bet the Seahawks want to go in on a high note. LIU’s game is big for Monmouth. So I expect quite a challenge.
3. Fordham makes A-10 Tournament (pretty small): The Rams are still technically alive for the #12 seed in the Atlantic 10 conference tournament. What they need to do is win all three of their final games, which unfortunately includes home games against La Salle and Temple, and hope that George Washington loses out. Actually, they don’t even need that much to happen. Since Fordham holds the tie-breaker over GW thanks to a head-to-head win, they can afford one game (either a loss or a GW win) in either direction. But that’s a tiny margin for error against a difficult schedule.
4. St. Francis (NY) clinches third seed in NEC (51%): The calculation here is easy. The Terriers have to win at Fairleigh Dickinson and hope that Robert Morris loses at Quinnipiac. Both are more likely than not to occur (80% for SFC win, 64% for RMU loss). This gives it an overall possibility of right around 50/50. For a team that’s been living on the edge all season it seems appropriate that’s what it comes down to.
NYC Buckets Archive 