Similarity Scores for Random Teams

While I had the similarity scores loaded I wanted to run them for a few other teams. I’ll cover in the NEC teams in this space next week. Instead I ran the numbers for a few random teams that are of particular interest this season: Syracuse, Murray State, Harvard, Oral Roberts and Georgia State. The Orange and Racers are undefeated at the moment. Harvard is the favorite in the Ivy League and ORU and GSU came from the “Ask the Audience” segment on Twitter. Check out all of those teams’ Top 5 comparisons. (All data through January 17.)

Syracuse:

• Duke – 2004 – 0.51 (31-6, 1 seed, Lost to UConn in Final Four)
• Memphis – 2008 – 0.59 (38-2, 1 seed, Lost to Kansas in National Final)
• Akron – 2007 – 0.63 (26-7, Lost in MAC tourney)
• Duke – 2011 – 0.63 (32-5, Lost in Sweet 16)
• Kansas – 2007 – 0.64 (33-5, 1 seed, Lost to UCLA in Regional Final)

First of all, Syracuse is a pretty unique team. The Orange don’t have any particularly close comparisons, but the teams that pop up and four solid NCAA tournament teams and… Akron? The Zips were excellent on offensive and defensive eFG%, but they couldn’t translate that into even winning the MAC, losing by a point to Miami (OH) in the conference tournament. It’s interesting that none of the comparisons ended up winning the title, though a bunch got very close. Also worth noting: Three of Syracuse’s top 10 comparisons are from 2012 (Ohio State, Baylor, Georgetown) so eventually (try Feb. 8) the Orange will meet a team similar to themselves.

Murray State:

• Texas A&M – 2005 – 0.38 (21-10, NIT)
• Indiana – 2012 – 0.38 (15-4)
• Oklahoma St. – 2004 – 0.40 (30-4, 2 seed, lost to Georgia Tech in Final Four)
• Louisville – 2005 – 0.41 (33-5, 4 seed, lost to Illinois in Final Four)
• Florida – 2005 – 0.42 (24-8, 4 seed, lost in Rd. 2)
• North Carolina – 2005 – 0.44 (33-4, 1 seed, National Champion)

I added an extra team here because of the inclusion of the 2012 Hoosiers at the top. It’s amusing that two of the most talked about teams of the first half of the college basketball season ended up being so similar. Murray State looks a lot more like a major conference team than a mid-major. Not until the Racers’ ninth comparison (2007 Akron again!) do you find a comparison to a mid. (And these comparisons are scheduled adjusted.) I’d say Murray State definitely has a chance to roll through the OVC.

Harvard:

• Wichita St. – 2004 – 0.18 (21-11, NIT)
• Wake Forest – 2009 – 0.27 (24-7, 4 seed, Lost in Rd. 1 to Cleveland State)
• Kentucky – 2009 – 0.29 (22-14, NIT)
• Oral Roberts – 2007 – 0.33 (23-11, 14 seed, Lost in Rd. 1)
• Kentucky – 2008 – 0.34 (18-13, 11 seed, Lost in Rd. 1)

The Crimson, much like Murray State, have a number of major conference teams amongst their top 10. These teams aren’t quite so good. It’s worth mentioning here too that none of Harvard’s other comparisons are major conference teams (though one is 2009 Butler). Two Billy Gillespie Kentucky teams appear on this list. I don’t know if that’s a good thing. It’s scary how close some of these comparisons are by the way.

Oral Roberts:

• Dayton – 2008 – 0.23 (23-11, Lost in NIT Quarterfinals)
• Birmingham Southern – 2006 – 0.24 (19-9, Lost Big South tournament opener to Charleston Southern)
• Cal St. Fullerton – 2006 – 0.26 (16-13)
• Belmont – 2008 – 0.28 (25-9, 15 seed, Lost in Rd. 1 to Duke by 1)
• Rhode Island – 2009 – 0.29 (23-11, NIT)

The Golden Eagles are 17-4 and leading the Summit League at the moment. Behind a powerful offense they’re ranked 60th in Pomeroy. Teams with a similar profile have often struggled to even make the NCAA tournament. Then again, 2008 Belmont was an impressive team. Of the other top comparisons in the Top 10 just one (2009 Portland State) made the tournament. Interestingly enough, one of ORU’s top 10 comparisons is 2011 ORU, which finished 19-16 and played in the CIT.

Georgia State:

• Louisville – 2004 – 0.32 (19-10, 10 seed, Lost in Rd. 1)
• Boston University – 2005 – 0.46 (20-9, NIT)
• Stephen F. Austin – 2009 – 0.47 (24-8, 14 seed, Lost in Rd. 1)
• Boston University – 2004 – 0.48 (23-6, upset by Stony Brook in AE Tourney, NIT)
• Arkansas – 2012 – 0.48 (13-5)

The Panthers have jumped into the middle of the CAA fray under Ron Hunter thanks to an awesome defense (ranked eighth nationally) and a terrible defense (220th). GSU is 5-2 in the CAA and right in the thick of things in a wide-open conference race. Teams with this profile though struggle to make the NCAA tournament as well. Poor Boston U. did this in back-to-back seasons and ended up watching from home both times. Here’s a funny note: Another school that played a weak non-conference schedule (2012 Tulane) is also one of GSU’s top 10 comparisons.