America East Projection: Madness bubbling

There is no dominant team in America East this season. Instead there are now five teams that have shared the role of favorite at different parts of the year. Depending on the moment Vermont, Albany, Stony Brook, Maine or Boston University is considered to have the best shot at winning America East. After running 10,000 sims here’s what I know: They all have a shot.

Sure Vermont has the highest winning percentage at 42.7%, but three other schools won at least 20% of the simulation’s titles and all told seven schools won at least one championship. As you can imagine, there were ties galore. Of the 10,000 sims, 28.7% ended in a tie for first place. That includes the most improbable season of all when UMBC won 11 games and tied for first place. Like I said, crazy.

It’s obvious that when conference play starts on Monday, Jan. 2 almost every team should feel like they have a shot. Well, except for Hartford and Binghamton. Neither of those schools managed to win a title during the 10,000 sims. Their best finish in conference was just above .500 at 9-7. But considering that neither of those teams have won a game yet, that’d still be quite the accomplishment.

Also, as these simulations prove. Watch out for New Hampshire. The Wildcats have shown during their non-conference results that beating the bottom three in the league is certainly something they should be able to handle and they’ve also got the ability to scare the top dogs. I was shocked to see UNH go undefeated once, more than BU did. At 5.7% total championships, and 1.9% outright, they’re a longshot, but an interesting one.

Here’s the table. Because some of the numbers were so small I decided to do totals instead of percentages here. These numbers, except for Best and Worst, are all out 10,000. The wins include ties, which is why they total to more than 10,000.


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