Great West Predictions

You won’t find Great West predictions almost anywhere, not even in this awesome recap of media days by Ballin’ is a Habit, but you will here! The six-team league released its preseason coaches poll on Monday. And N.J.I.T. was picked third. How can this be?

Since I’m on the record of selecting the Highlanders to finish over .500 on the season, I was really surprised to see them in third behind Utah Valley and North Dakota. The Wolverines aren’t much of a surprise, they dominate the Great West in almost every sport, but the Fighting Sioux? They even managed to get a first place vote.

Here’s the full poll:

  1. Utah Valley (5) – 34 points
  2. North Dakota (1) – 28 points
  3. NJIT – 27 points
  4. Texas-Pan American – 15 points
  5. Houston Baptist – 11 points
  6. Chicago State – 11 points

This actually closely aligns with what Ken Pomeroy predicts as well. He’s got:

  1. Utah Valley: 8-2
  2. North Dakota: 7-3
  3. NJIT: 6-4
  4. Texas Pan-American: 5-5
  5. Houston Baptist: 3-7
  6. Chicago State: 2-8

6-4, coupled with a strong showing in non-conference play, might actually be enough to get N.J.I.T. to .500. Led by CollegeInsider.com’s GWC Player of the Year, Isaiah Wilkerson, Jim Engles’ squad should give teams a run for their money in conference and at least compete with every team on their schedule outside of the three Big East schools. Also, the addition of Garrett Frick will hopefully give Engles a little more power inside in what has typically been a guard-oriented program.

Players like Frick highlight one of the most fun things about the Great West Conference. Nobody really knows what’s going to happen. There are a lot of newcomers to the league each season. Take, for instance, Chicago State. The Cougars basically overhauled their roster for Tracy Dildy’s second season. Yes, Pomeroy has them projected as the worst team in Division I, but that’s with last season’s players. Lee Fisher wasn’t on the roster last season. But he had 19 points and 15 rebounds in the Cougars’ 76-65 exhibition victory over St. Ambrose on Monday. Fisher is a transfer from Northern Illinois. You really think he can’t make an impact in the GWC? That team may surprise some people.

Another team that may surprise some people during non-conference play is Texas-Pan American. The Broncs are picked fourth in the GWC, but its deceptive. They have one of the hardest working coaches in America in Ryan Marks. (Don’t believe me? Read this series.) Unlike many Great West teams UTPA actually returns some talent in junior Aaron Urbanus (who looks like he’s about 12 years old) and senior Jared Maree. The Broncs scored 96 points in their exhibition victory over Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon. Junior Ruben Cabrera scored 24 points and grabbed 12 boards to lead the way.

Of course, while head coach Dick Hunsaker was gracious in the release announcing Utah Valley‘s selection as the top team in the conference, the Wolverines have a lot of work to do. Isiah Williams is back for his senior season and he may be the best player in the Great West. Last season he scored 17.5 points per game and was named the GWC Player of the Year by the conference and was even recognized as an honorable mention All-American by the AP. Williams is a gunner, with a 33.7% shot percentage last season, 17th in the country. That got him a lot of attention and freed up teammate Ben Aird, who at 6’10” has size you don’t see often in the GWC, to be efficient on offense. With those two as the cornerstones Utah Valley might have the talent to pull some upsets this season and finish with more than 20 wins. The last team to do that, South Dakota in 2009-10, moved on to the Summit League.

Another team that’s leaving is North Dakota. The Fighting Sioux are heading to the Big Sky soon and they’ve built a young core with which to ease the transition. North Dakota got lucky in the GWC Tournament last season and won three games by a combined four points (and two overtimes). Four sophomores play a big role in the rotation. Troy Huff is the most notable. He was the Fighting Sioux’s go-to-guy last season and averaged 13.3 points per game. That said, 6’8″ senior captain Patrick Mitchell is also a big part of the plan this season. He was the tournament MVP in 2010-11, as he averaged 15.3 points and 5.7 rebounds per game in the three victories. If his production stays at a high level, then ND will be a very tough out.

Finally there’s Houston Baptist, the team I think will actually finish sixth. The Huskies lost their exhibition even though senior center Joe Latas scored 18 points. You might remember Latas from Cleveland State. Last season he was most notable for being called for 7.7 fouls per 40 minutes for the Vikings. But at 6’11” he should give GWC teams fits in the paint. Unfortunately, since do-everything star Andrew Gonzalez was drafted by the NBA Developmental League, he doesn’t have much help. It’s going to be tough for Ron Cotrell to improve an offense that finished 341st in adjusted efficiency last season.

This season should be a lot of fun in the Great West. To finish it off, here’s my preseason All-Great West Team, since the league never released one. (You can probably guess it if you read the previous 800 words.):

  • Isiah Williams, Utah Valley
  • Isaiah Wilkerson, N.J.I.T.
  • Joe Latas, Houston Baptist
  • Troy Huff, North Dakota
  • Patrick Mitchell, North Dakota

Let the games begin!

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