Value Added in the MAAC

Next season is shaping up to be a really interesting one in the MAAC. Out of the 10 teams in the conference six will be legitimate postseason candidates and at least three could do damage in the NCAA Tournament if they make it that far.

The first step in evaluating who might come out on top of that logjam is taking a look at returning players. Most observers think that since Iona is returning Michael Glover and Scott Machado the Gaels are the team to beat, but looking at the value added for returning players gives a different result.

Fairfield comes out on top in the value added calculations because of how much its players contribute on defense. Yes, Value Added incorporates defensive play into its calculations as well. (You can read more about how here.) It turns out that the Stags, which finished 22nd overall in adjusted defensive efficiency last season according to Ken Pomeroy, have a number of players that rate highly on the side of the court that people tend to forget about when doing offseason rankings.

According to the calculations six Fairfield players could contribute on defense for a BCS team. (Only one, Ryan Olander, could on offense.) Of course, this doesn’t take into account that Fairfield will be switching head coaches, but my guess is that with Sydney Johnson at the helm the numbers will stay pretty steady considering his Princeton teams finished 76th and 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency the past two seasons.

The other side of the coin is Iona. The Gaels get all of their returning value added from offense. Glover’s offensive impact is better than the entire value of the Manhattan returning roster (4.12% vs. 3.76%).

St. Peter’s, as you’d expect, is like Fairfield and gets most of it’s overall value from defense. The Peacocks are really going to miss Ryan Bacon and Wesley Jenkins next season. In fact, according to Value Added, Bacon was the most valuable player overall in the conference last season.

Want a sleeper in the race? Check out Loyola (MD). The Greyhounds finished 15-15 (10-8) last season, but have the fourth best returning value added number in the conference. Loyola was in the bottom third of the nation in both age and luck last season. Both should improve from a year of experience and some regression and that should give the Greyhounds a solid base to work from.